While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from David Coletto.
From June 17 to 19, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. Note, this survey was almost entirely done after the G7 Summit in Alberta but before the House of Commons passed Bill C-5. As summer begins, our latest political tracking survey offers a snapshot of a Canadian electorate that appears cautiously steady. The public remains...
One of the defining features of Canada’s new political era is the Carney government’s explicit attempt to connect economic growth with improvements to people’s everyday lives. In nearly every speech since becoming Prime Minister, Mark Carney has emphasized productivity, business investment, and competitiveness, not just as ends in themselves but as levers to improve affordability, living standards, and fairness...
We’ve entered a new political era in Canada, and one of its defining features has been the Carney government’s ambitious attempts to link economic growth to Canadians’ daily lives. In nearly every speech he’s made since becoming prime minister, Mark Carney has emphasized productivity, competitiveness and business investment — not as abstract goals, but as tools we can use to...
Elections are messy, emotional, and complex, and the 2025 Canadian federal election was no exception. In the weeks since the results came in, I’ve consumed a lot of commentary, analysis, and hot takes from journalists, pundits, campaign operatives, and academics. Some of it matches what I saw in the data. But a lot of it doesn’t.
Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from June 2 to 5, 2025 and interviewed 2,585 Canadian adults. The survey finds that optimism in the direction of the country has reached a three-year high while positive impressions of Prime Minister Carney and his government continue to rise.
Over the past few months, a growing conversation has emerged in Alberta around the possibility of holding a referendum on whether the province should separate from Canada and become an independent country. The idea of Alberta sovereignty is not new—but recent political rhetoric and policy disputes have brought it back to the surface. To better understand where things stand, Abacus...
Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from May 15 to 21, 2025 and interviewed 2,273 Canadian adults. The survey was conducted entirely after the swearing in of the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Just before King Charles is set to deliver the new government’s Speech from the Throne, a new Abacus Data poll...
Between April 16 and 21, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,920 Canadian adults (18+), on behalf of the University of Toronto, to understand what Canadians believe is needed to succeed in a rapidly changing world. The findings reveal a country at a turning point: confidence in long-term stability is wavering, yet support for bold, forward-looking action is...
When the federal election campaign was underway, the Star invited two eminent pollsters — David Coletto of Abacus Data and Allan Gregg of Earnscliffe Strategies — to discuss what they’ve learned from the election results. Here’s what they had to say:
Today, Mark Carney’s new government took office, and Canadians received their first clear look at how the Liberals intend to govern following a tightly contested 2025 election. In my view, it’s clear the cabinet composition reflects the challenging balancing act Carney faces between meeting heightened public expectations, distancing his government from Trudeau’s unpopular legacy, and managing competing domestic and international...
For much of 2023 and 2024, Canadians were deeply entrenched in a scarcity mindset—a psychological state characterized by anxiety about the accessibility and affordability of basic necessities. This mindset had profound political implications, creating widespread discontent. Life felt perpetually uncertain, with essential items and services harder to obtain, increasingly expensive, and prone to sudden loss. Such sentiments inevitably translated into...
For the past few years, Pierre Poilievre was tuned into the Canadian mood with extraordinary precision. His pitch was shaped around a country gripped by a scarcity mindset—rising housing costs, strained health care, expensive groceries, and an overwhelming sense that the basics of life were slipping further from reach. It didn’t hurt that former prime minister Justin Trudeau was deeply...
Mark Carney’s Liberal government may have won the 2025 election, but the road ahead will be anything but smooth. In fact, it might be among the most complex governing challenges any federal government has faced in a generation. Carney didn’t ride a wave of optimism or party enthusiasm into office. He won because he aligned—almost perfectly—with the emotional mood of...
Tomorrow is Election Day in Canada. Months ago, the outcome looked fairly certain – a Conservative victory. But today, as we release our final poll of the campaign, it looks like the Liberals are now the favourites to pull off a fourth straight victory under the leadership of Mark Carney. After 40 turbulent days, Canada’s 45th general election comes down...
Every successful campaign starts with a clear sense of purpose. Too often, when people hear “message,” they think it means a slogan or a handful of talking points. But a campaign message is far more than a tagline—it’s the central argument, the foundational story a party is telling voters about why it deserves their trust and their vote. It’s the...
With just days left before election day, the 2025 Canadian general election has become something few anticipated: a genuinely competitive race. What once looked like a near-certain Conservative victory has given way to Mark Carney’s Liberals now holding a narrow but meaningful lead. Back in January, just 12 per cent of Canadians said the Justin Trudeau Liberals deserved re-election. Meanwhile...
In our most recent national survey, we asked Canadians a simple but revealing question: “Now, imagine you were describing each of the following people to a child and you wanted to tell that child how these people are like—the kind of person they are. What three words would you use?”
With less than a week to go in the campaign, a new poll from Abacus Data finds the Liberals leading by 3 among those who have already voted and are committed and by 5 among those who have voted and are certain to vote. This survey was conducted entirely after the two leaders’ debates held last week and interviewed 2,00...
If you’ve followed our polling during this campaign, you’ll know we’ve gone beyond the usual vote intention numbers. Yes, we track the horserace. But to really understand where this election is going—and why—we’ve asked Canadians more questions than any other pollster: about what they care about, what they fear, what they hope for, and what they believe. And what’s emerged...
With just one week to go, the 2025 federal election has become something no one fully expected even a few months ago: a referendum on how much risk Canadians are willing to take in a world turned upside down.
As we enter the final stretch of the 2025 federal election campaign, a generational divide has opened up in Canadian politics—one that’s not just visible in the polling numbers, but audible in the voices of voters themselves. In a recent Abacus Data survey, we asked Canadians to explain—in their own words—why they’re voting the way they are. No prompts. No...
At 8:30 p.m. Eastern, as the English‑language leaders’ debate was close to wrapping up in Montréal, our team at Abacus Data pushed a national, English‑only survey into field. Within roughly ninety minutes we captured responses from a representative sample of 1,200 Canadian adults. We asked every participant whether they had watched “all or most,” “some,” or “a little” of the...
With the English-language leaders’ debate now in the rear-view mirror, the 2025 federal election campaign moves into its most important phase: the closing week.
Two weeks out from election day, the story many expected to be writing by now—about Pierre Poilievre’s march to victory—hasn’t materialized. Despite years of strong polling, a Prime Minister with record-low approval, and a party machine firing on all cylinders, the Conservative Party now finds itself trailing the Liberals in every major publicly released poll, including ours, where the gap...
With less than two weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls on April 28, our most recent Abacus Data survey (conducted on April 14 and 15) provides an updated snapshot of the race as party leaders prepare for two pivotal debates: the French-language Leaders’ Debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow. This smaller sample, quick turnaround poll serves...
As Canadians grapple with the ongoing uncertainties triggered by the Trump administration’s tariff threats and potential economic fallout, there is broad recognition that our country must find new ways to expand its economy and create good-paying jobs. From coast to coast, people believe Canada must seize every opportunity to secure its economic future. Whether by reducing interprovincial trade barriers or...
Something significant has happened to the NDP vote in this federal election. A party that, for much of the past two years, consistently held between 18% and 20% support now finds itself with just 9% of the committed vote, according to our latest Abacus Data survey conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025. That’s a collapse—one of the most dramatic...
I spend a lot of time digging into our Abacus Data polling data, looking at trends, understanding the relationship between variables. Imagine a chef in a kitchen testing out new recipes. That’s me in a dataset, and I love it!
At about the three-week mark of the campaign, a new Abacus Data poll conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025 finds the Liberals holding a 4-point lead over the Conservatives. We see not only a shift in raw vote intention but a broader convergence of factors—leader impressions, expectations of who will form the next government, and top-of-mind issues—that now firmly...
As Canadians prepare to tune into the federal Leaders’ Debates next week—April 16 in French and April 17 in English—new data from Abacus Data finds they are coming with a clear set of expectations about what the leaders should talk about. We asked 1,800 Canadians surveyed from April 7 to 10, 2025 to choose up to five issues they believe...
With just two weeks left in the campaign, the data suggests Mark Carney and the Liberal Party are within striking distance of defying expectations if just a few months ago and pulling off a fourth straight election win. While many observers had written off the Liberals, new analysis offers a more nuanced picture—one that highlights the opportunity ahead for Carney...
Halfway through the federal election campaign, it’s safe to say that things have not unfolded as many predicted they would back in January, when then-prime minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation. At the time, there was widespread talk that the Liberals were bound to falter and that the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were well-positioned to make significant gains. Yet...
At about the halfway point of the campaign, a new poll conducted entirely after Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs last week finds the Liberals opening up a six point lead over the Conservatives. The survey of 1,900 Canadian adults was conducted from April 3 to 8, 2025.
Between March 20 and 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. This wave explores how emotional drivers are shaping vote intentions and leadership preferences in the lead-up to the election. As affordability pressures and global instability dominate public discourse, Canadians are increasingly dividing along two emotional lines...
My nephew Julian is eight. He doesn’t watch the news, doesn’t read newspapers, and hasn’t even heard of Peter Mansbridge. But two months ago, he marched into the kitchen and told my sister, with full conviction, “Carbon Tax Carney. If Carney wins, Canada loses.” Word for word. The line from a Conservative ad he saw on YouTube. He has no...
As we enter the third week of the 2025 federal campaign—and just days after “Liberation Day” (April 2), when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs—our latest Abacus Data poll provides a snapshot of the race at its midpoint. The overall top-line numbers remain remarkably stable, yet beneath the surface we observe important shifts in voter...
Between November 6 and 18, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 4,001 Canadian adults (18+) to explore public perceptions of the housing market. Commissioned by Mattamy Homes Canada, this study looks at how Canadians feel about housing affordability, accessibility, and the role of governments, developers, and other stakeholders in addressing the crisis. The findings reveal widespread concern: a significant...
The Canadian public is facing significant uncertainty as the new U.S. administration disrupts geopolitical norms. Key issues in the ongoing federal election include the trade dispute between Canada and the United States and concerns over Canada’s territorial integrity. One topic that combines all these ongoing issues is the federal spending on Canada’s defence. In recent weeks, media outlets have focused...
Between March 17 and 20, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. As part of this, we developed the Abacus Data Precarity Index, a measure used to categorize Canadians based on their level of confidence in the future. The index ranges from those who feel secure and resilient...
Yesterday’s announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that Canada would be excluded from his sweeping new round of reciprocal tariffs appears, at first glance, to be a welcome reprieve for Canadian industry. But the reality is more complicated. While we’ve dodged the latest bullet, previously announced tariffs—particularly on autos, steel, and aluminum—remain a threat. Politically, the question becomes: does this...
In this second week of the federal campaign, the question on many people’s minds is why the Liberals—under their new leader and Prime Minister, Mark Carney—seem poised for re‑election. Our latest polling suggests they’re currently the favourites to clinch another victory. But beyond public sentiment, we also have some more advanced analytical tools that help to paint a clearer picture...
In the heat of a federal election campaign, with Donald Trump once again occupying the White House and making noise and consistent threats about tariffs and even annexation of Canadian territory, patriotic fervour in Canada is on the rise. Parties are campaigning with slogans of “Canada Strong” and “Canada First”. You’d think that in such a moment of national self-reflection...
As the first week of Canada’s 2025 general election comes to an end, our latest Abacus Data survey—our third poll of the campaign—finds the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck nationally, with each party securing 39% of the committed vote among all eligible voters.
As we come to the end of the first week of this high‐stakes, highly consequential Canadian general election campaign, many Conservative supporters—and a fair number of commentators—have been urging Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party to dramatically pivot. Their argument is straightforward: with Donald Trump ramping up threats against Canada, it seems logical for the Conservatives to seize the moment...
In political campaigns, voters’ choices often hinge on how well they feel a party understands their needs, addresses their most pressing concerns, and reflects their values. On our latest Abacus Data election survey, I gave respondents an opportunity to explain, in their own words, why they are planning to vote a certain way. In this piece, I focus specifically on...
Political campaigns are about more than promises; they are about perceptions. Voters carry in their minds a picture of what a leader will do once in office. That perception is then measured against another all-important question: should they do it? The answers to both questions—will they and should they—colour not only election outcomes but the tone and substance of national...
Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls. Liberals take a numerical lead for the first time since...
Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls.
It’s Week 1 of the federal election campaign, and Canadians are already asking the usual question: “Who’s up, and who’s down?” Beyond the shifting poll numbers and daily headlines, however, there are often less obvious survey results worth focusing on. This week, let’s focus on three that explain why Mark Carney and the Liberals have continued to extend their lead...
We’re at a turning point in Canadian public opinion: once defined by a scarcity mindset—where rising housing costs, healthcare strains, and job insecurity forced many to scramble for essentials—our collective outlook is now shifting toward something else: precarity. While concerns around what is available today still matter, the fear that core systems (healthcare, housing, social services) may fail is raising...
With the election campaign now underway, one overarching question looms: is this a campaign about change and scarcity, or about security in a time of deep precarity? Our latest polling points to a country wrestling with competing impulses—on one hand, a strong desire for a shift in direction; on the other, a fear of disruption in a period of uncertainty...
As we kick off the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign, it’s instructive to look back at where we stood at the start of the 2021 race. Although that campaign feels like it only just wrapped up, so much has changed in four years—both in the broader national mood and in the political landscape itself.
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw...
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw...
After months of speculation, a federal election appears imminent. Prime Minister Mark Carney, only recently installed as Liberal leader, is likely to seek the Governor General’s approval to dissolve Parliament any day now. This moment arrives after a series of political upheavals few could have predicted even a few months ago. But if you look closely, four main factors have...
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday. We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in...
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday. We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in...
Canada is on the cusp of a federal election featuring two relatively fresh faces: Prime Minister Mark Carney, newly at the helm of the Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre leading the Conservatives. While both men arrive with distinct backgrounds and approaches, their contest appears to be shaping up as a close one. Recent survey findings underscore just how narrow the...
Starting in 2025, the new US administration confronted the Canadian public with all sorts of threats. We detected in recent polls that the looming tariff issues are top-of-mind for many Canadians. Over the last couple of weeks, different media outlets (e.g., The Economist, Toronto Star, National Post or CBC) floated the idea of a possible Canadian membership to the European...