Economy News

Shaimaa Yassin, Abigail Jackson, Dena Abtahi, Ricardo Chejfec

Supporting communities through layoffs and business closures: A comprehensive framework

Canada’s economic landscape is profoundly changing. A shifting trade environment, global efforts to reduce emissions and other structural trends are reshaping industries and job requirements. With these shifts, opportunities arise, but so do uneven risks and impacts. Certain communities are disproportionately susceptible to the workforce disruption these changes will bring. In this Policy Brief, we focus on mass layoffs and...

Erik Hertzberg

Oil Spike on Iran War Seen Boosting Canada’s Growth, Inflation

A sustained rise in oil prices would lift Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook, Bank of Nova Scotia says. The war in Iran has already pushed petroleum prices higher, which may increase what Canada — a major crude-producing country — earns from exports relative to what it spends on imports.

Nik Nanos

Canadian consumer confidence continues to improve. Hits highest level since November 2024.

The positive movement in consumer confidence has been primarily driven by perceptions that the Canadian economy will get stronger in the next six months. The proportion of Canadians who believe things will get better has increased from 17 to 26 percent in the past four weeks. This has coincided with a series of trade meetings initiated by Prime Minister Carney.

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence remains in marginally positive territory

After a positive lift in consumer confidence last week, perceptions remain stable. The proportion of Canadians who believe the economy will get stronger in the next six months is up seven points in four weeks from 18 to 25 per cent to but still remains net negative. Although 25 per cent is an improvement, 39 per cent of Canadians still...

Eddie Sheppard, David Coletto

Canadians Are Living on Financial Alert as Tariff Turbulence Fuels the Precarity Mindset

Over the past year, Canadians have lived through a steady drumbeat of U.S. tariff threats, economic pressure, and political tension. For some, it fades into the background. For others, it shows up every time they tap their debit card. In our latest research, I wanted to understand not just what people think about trade policy, but how this stretch of...

Craig Lord

Food inflation spiked 7.3% in January. Here's what's driving the increase

Statistics Canada reported an easing in the headline inflation rate Tuesday but a jump in the pace of food inflation amid tax changes and lingering pressures at the grocery store continue to put the squeeze on consumers. StatCan said Tuesday that the annual rate of inflation edged down to 2.3 per cent in January. Economists had expected inflation to hold...

Inflation ticks down to 2.3% in January amid lower gas prices: StatCan

Statistics Canada says lower prices at the pump and easing shelter inflation helped rein in the pressure facing consumers in January. The agency said Tuesday that the annual rate of inflation ticked down to 2.3 per cent last month. Economists had expected inflation to hold steady at 2.4 per cent. StatCan said gas prices were 16.7 per cent lower year-over-year...

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence trending up.

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,018 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending February 13th, 2026. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,018 Canadians is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.

Craig Lord

Food inflation expected to jump in January amid tax changes: economists

Economists expect tax changes from a year ago will result in a year-over-year surge in food prices when Statistics Canada reports January inflation figures later this week. StatCan will publish its January consumer price index report on Tuesday, a day later than originally scheduled. The agency recently adopted a Monday publishing schedule for the consumer price index but shifted the...

Nik Nanos

Confidence up, hits level not seen since August 2025

After a prolonged flatline trend, consumer confidence is up for the first time in almost six months. The Bloomberg Nanos Index is largely up on more positive sentiment related to personal finances and job security compared to four weeks ago.

Jenna Benchetrit,

Canada's unemployment rate ticks down, economy loses 25,000 jobs in January

Canada's unemployment rate ticked down to 6.5 per cent in January, but the economy lost 25,000 jobs, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The unemployment rate — the lowest since September 2024 — was the result of fewer people actively searching for work. The data agency also noted that the number of people who were neither employed nor looking for work...

Erik Hertzberg

Import Costs Driving Canada Food Inflation, BOC Research Says

Bank of Canada research suggests the acceleration in food inflation last year was almost entirely due to rising import costs, not domestic factors. The total annual change in food costs, excluding fruits and vegetables, was 3.1% in 2025, and 2.7 percentage points of that increase was due to direct imports, imported inputs and international shipping costs, according to research released...

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence flatlines in neutral – Positive perceptions on future strength of economy hits 10 week low.

Consumer confidence in Canada continues to flatline in neutral. Of note, the percentage of Canadians who believe the economy will get stronger in the next six months has hit a 10 week low.

Nik Nanos

Importance of reducing grocery costs twice as high as reducing housing costs.

This research gauged the opinion of Canadians on areas of spending where they would like to see more reduced costs in 2026.

The Canadian Press

Bank of Canada holds key interest rate steady at 2.25% in soft economy

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday and forecasts a gradual economic recovery from the U.S. tariff shock. The policy rate remains at 2.25 per cent after the central bank’s first decision of the year. Economists had widely expected the hold.

Aaron Wherry

In Canadian politics, a new world order can't overshadow the price of groceries

The old world is dying and a new era of global instability beckons. But first, the groceries. "For many Canadians, the cost of groceries and everyday essentials has been too high for too long. They need more support now," Prime Minister Mark Carney conceded on Monday morning, speaking at a grocery store in Ottawa, almost exactly a week removed from...

Sammy Hudes

GST credit hike a 'meaningful' affordability measure for low-income people: economist

Proposed changes to the GST credit announced Monday by Prime Minister Mark Carney should provide some relief for lower-income Canadians, but experts caution it may not account for future surges in the cost of living. Carney unveiled a 25 per cent hike to the GST credit in a temporary move set to last for five years, billed as a measure...

Nik Nanos

Canadian consumer remains tentative.

Canadian consumer confidence remains gripped in neutrality with a score at 50.36 points on the 100 point diffusion index. People are two and one half times more likely to believe that the Canadian economy will get weaker rather than stronger in the next six months.

Merran Smith, Bruce Anderson

Canadians want to accelerate our competitiveness – and our path to a cleaner economy. We can. Here ’ s how

Nik Nanos

Waiting to exhale: Canadian consumer confidence trapped in neutral

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,084 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending January 16th, 2026. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,084 Canadians is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence stranded in neutral

https://nanos.co/consumer-confidence-stranded-in-neutral-bloomberg-nanos/#:~:text=Canadian%20consumer%20confidence%20remains%20almost%20perfectly%20neutral%20as%20we%20open%20up%202026%20with%20the%20environment%20neither%20encouraging%20positivity%20nor%20advancing%20negativity.

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence mired in neutral. Ontarians and BC’ers negative.

Consumer confidence nationally remains mired in neutral. Of note, Ontarians have the most negative consumer confidence followed by British Columbians. Confidence in those two provinces is the most negative.

Nik Nanos

2025 closes out in a neutral consumer confidence posture

Canadian consumer confidence closes out the year in a neutral posture with a score near 50 on the 100-point diffusion index. Views related to the future strength of the Canadian economy and person finances remain net negative while perceptions on the future value of real estate remains net positive.

John Rapley

Oh no, the MAGA economy isn’t working for the MAGA crowd

Someone needs to tell Donald Trump that yelling a lie won’t make doubters believe it. In his defensive, Scrooge-like message from the White House last week, Shouty Claus railed about the awful economy he’d inherited and how hard it’s proving to mend. Nonetheless, he boomed in staccato until he grew breathless, the economy was doing great, it was on the...

Nik Nanos

Energy Advantage: Ontarians See Oil and Gas Revenues as Key to Jobs, Economy and Trade – Approval process nine time more likely to be seen as too slow rather than too fast.

Nanos conducted a representative non-probability online survey of 1000 Ontarians, 18 years of age or older, between December 10 and 12, 2025. The sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Ontario.

Nik Nanos

Canadians under 35 are more worried about paying next month’s housing costs and are more likely to report some form of difficulty with the rising cost of living than Canadians on average.

The research gauged the opinions among Canadians on their perceptions and concerns regarding economic conditions and housing affordability. Respondents were asked about their expectations for the next generation’s standard of living, with options ranging from higher to lower standards compared to today. Additionally, the survey gauged individuals’ worries about their ability to pay for housing in the near term and...

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence in neutral territory but hits a two-month high on expectations improvement.

Although Canadian consumer confidence continues to be in negative territory, the trend is marginally improving over time largely driven by more positive views in the forward-looking Expectations Sub-indice.

David Coletto

For 67% of Canadians, the cost of living feels as bad as it ever has

I noticed a really interesting question asked recently by POLITICO in the United States about the cost of living. It cut through the noise by asking people something very simple: does the cost of living today feel worse than ever, merely bad, or not bad at all? Given how central affordability has been to politics in Canada, I decided to...

Nik Nanos

Cost top barrier to buying Canadian goods – Cost is an exceptional constraint for people under 35 years of age.

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,009 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between November 29th and December 2nd, 2025, as part of an omnibus survey.

Kevin Page, Adam Parwana, Hao Tian Shen

Canada’s Nobel Moment and Budget 2026: Inspiring an Innovation Agenda

On November 4th, Budget 2025 shifted the Carney government’s policy priorities to economic growth and national defence in response to a rupture in Canada-US trade relations and new NATO commitments. Public finance with a focus on capital investment is the principal instrument of change. In line with this strategy, a closer look at Canada’s sagging productivity suggests the next budget...

Nik Nanos

Canadians most worried about grocery prices as they enter the holiday season.

Joanna Petropoulos

Grocery prices remain top financial concern for Canadians: Nanos survey

As Canadians begin budgeting for the new year, grocery prices remain the top financial concern across the country, according to a new Nanos research survey conducted for CTV News. The survey highlights where Canadians are feeling the largest financial pinch as they head into the holiday season and the coming year.

Nik Nanos

Neutral consumer sentiment continues into holiday season

Canadian consumer sentiment continues in a neutral position with a score of 49.45 on the 100 point diffusion index that makes up the BNCCI. The forward looking Expectations Sub-Indice remains in negative territory but has been improving over the past four weeks.

Nik Nanos

Less than one in five Canadians believe the recent federal budget will improve or somewhat improve their personal finances.

Nik Nanos

Majority of Canadians expect interest rates to hold or decrease over the next year

The research gauged the opinions among Canadians on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,009 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between November 29th and December 2nd, 2025 as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for this survey is ±3....

Craig Lord

Canada added 54,000 jobs in November, unemployment rate drops to 6.5%: StatCan

The labour market surprised economists again in November with a third straight month of job gains. Statistics Canada said Friday that the economy added 54,000 new positions last month compared with economists’ expectations for a small loss. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent in November, down from 6.9 per cent in October, marking a second consecutive monthly decline...

Jenna Benchetrit,

Food prices could increase in 2026, with meat leading the way, say Dalhousie researchers

Food prices in Canada could increase by four to six per cent next year, largely driven by pricier meat products, according to a forecast by researchers at Dalhousie University. Beef in particular is expected to get more expensive, potentially rising seven per cent, as cattle sizes shrink (those markets are susceptible to tariffs) and more ranchers leave the industry, said...

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence neutral – Positive views on the future value of real estate hits a 7-month low (Bloomberg/Nanos)

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,084 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending November 28th, 2025. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,084 Canadians is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.

Craig Lord

Economists warn surprise GDP growth in Q3 masks weakness in Canada's economy

Canada's economy posted surprisingly strong growth in the third quarter, but economists looking underneath the hood offered a series of caveats that suggest weaker results than the headline figures imply. Statistics Canada said Friday that real gross domestic product rose 2.6 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2025, marking a rebound from a contraction of...

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence continues to sputter in neutral.

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,053 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending November 21st, 2025. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,053 Canadians is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.

Peter Armstrong

Awaiting this week's verdict on a recession

Over the past few months, a single question has loomed over the economic landscape: Is Canada slipping into a recession? As the trade war bit deeper over the summer, the economy stalled. The unemployment rate climbed and economic growth repeatedly dipped into negative territory.

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence remains in negative territory

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,060 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending November 14th, 2025. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,060 Canadians is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.

Craig Lord

Inflation cools to 2.2% in October as gas, grocery prices fall

Cheaper prices at the gas pumps and grocery store helped bring down inflation in October, Statistics Canada said Monday. The annual rate of inflation cooled to 2.2 per cent in October – a tick higher than economists’ expectations but down from 2.4 per cent in September. Gas prices fell 4.8 per cent on a monthly basis in October as retailers...