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David Valentin

PCs lead OLP 44% to 35%, Ontarians Skeptical of Highway 401 Tunnel Expansion

A new Liaison Strategies poll conducted for Focus Ontario shows the governing Progressive Conservatives maintaining a 9-point lead over the Ontario Liberals among decided voters. However, the survey also finds significant public opposition to the provincial government's proposal to build a tunnel under Highway 401, with a majority of Ontarians favoring other infrastructure and social priorities. Conducted from December 5-7...

David Valentin

Liberals 39% (+1), Conservatives 37% (-1)

A new national Liaison Strategies poll conducted over the weekend shows the Liberals up one point to 39%, while the Conservatives slip one to 37%. The federal NDP remains in double digits, but is down one point to 11%. Conducted from December 19-28, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the survey polled 1,000 Canadians, with the sample split evenly between...

Nik Nanos

2025 closes out in a neutral consumer confidence posture

Canadian consumer confidence closes out the year in a neutral posture with a score near 50 on the 100-point diffusion index. Views related to the future strength of the Canadian economy and person finances remain net negative while perceptions on the future value of real estate remains net positive.

David Valentin

Toronto: Chow leads Tory, 39% (-3) to 35% (-1)

December 23, 2025 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Toronto mayor Olivia Chow leading in a potential re-match with former Toronto mayor John Tory, 39% to 35%. Brad Bradford, the first candidate to declare their intention to run for mayor, follows in third with 16% (+4)...

David Valentin

Liberals, Tories Tied at 38%

A new national Liaison Strategies poll conducted over the weekend for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows the Carney Liberals continuing to slide and now tied with the Conservatives at 38%. The Federal NDP stays steady at 12% nationally, and maintains 19% in British Columbia. Conducted from December 19-21, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the...

Nik Nanos

Energy Advantage: Ontarians See Oil and Gas Revenues as Key to Jobs, Economy and Trade – Approval process nine time more likely to be seen as too slow rather than too fast.

Nanos conducted a representative non-probability online survey of 1000 Ontarians, 18 years of age or older, between December 10 and 12, 2025. The sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Ontario.

David Coletto

From “Carney, Who?” to the Centre of Gravity: 18 Months Through Abacus Data Polling

This piece has a simple goal. It is not to praise Mark Carney or to criticize him. It is not to argue that his rise was inevitable, nor to suggest it was purely accidental. The goal is to understand how someone who was virtually unknown to most Canadians in mid-2024 became Prime Minister less than a year later, and what...

Nik Nanos

Canadians under 35 are more worried about paying next month’s housing costs and are more likely to report some form of difficulty with the rising cost of living than Canadians on average.

The research gauged the opinions among Canadians on their perceptions and concerns regarding economic conditions and housing affordability. Respondents were asked about their expectations for the next generation’s standard of living, with options ranging from higher to lower standards compared to today. Additionally, the survey gauged individuals’ worries about their ability to pay for housing in the near term and...

Government satisfaction scores fall like winter snow as Canadians blanketed in cost-of-living challenges

2025 ends much the way it started, with political and economic turmoil that has persisted in some form or another for the duration, with Canada and the United States continuing to fail to reach a trade deal, and that relationship strained. For tens of millions of Canadians, cost-of-living and affordability challenges have been exacerbated by the trade situation. While provincial...

Darrell Bricker

Liberals Hold Narrow Lead Over Conservatives as 2025 Closes

A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party (40%, -3 pts vs. September 2025) would hold a three-point lead over the Conservatives (37%, -2 pts vs. September), the same-sized lead as the Liberals held on election night in April. Still lagging behind is the NDP (9%, +2 pts). The...

Nik Nanos

Concern about jobs/the economy ramping up – LPC 38.5, CPC 36.0, NDP 10.8

The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of...

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence in neutral territory but hits a two-month high on expectations improvement.

Although Canadian consumer confidence continues to be in negative territory, the trend is marginally improving over time largely driven by more positive views in the forward-looking Expectations Sub-indice.

David Coletto

For 67% of Canadians, the cost of living feels as bad as it ever has

I noticed a really interesting question asked recently by POLITICO in the United States about the cost of living. It cut through the noise by asking people something very simple: does the cost of living today feel worse than ever, merely bad, or not bad at all? Given how central affordability has been to politics in Canada, I decided to...

David Coletto

As Parliament Rises, Liberals and Conservatives Remains Neck and Neck

Between December 5 and 9, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults, offering a final snapshot of the federal political landscape as Parliament wrapped up for the year and the country entered the holiday season. This is our last federal political tracker of 2025. This wave captures public response to several key developments: the Carney government’s early November budget, the...

Nik Nanos

Cost top barrier to buying Canadian goods – Cost is an exceptional constraint for people under 35 years of age.

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,009 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between November 29th and December 2nd, 2025, as part of an omnibus survey.

Future of the CPC: A (declining) majority of Conservative voters would keep Poilievre as leader in January

Like snow blanketing the country, a quieting has settled upon caucus rumblings over the leadership of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. But as the days count down until the January Conservative convention, and his leadership review, is Poilievre standing on solid ground or skating on thin ice? New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a majority (58%) of recent...

Nik Nanos

Canadians most worried about grocery prices as they enter the holiday season.

50% of Canadians Support the New Pipeline Project from Alberta to B.C., Leger poll finds

As the federal government’s agreement with Alberta to advance a new bitumen pipeline project continues to spark strong political reactions nationwide, a new Leger survey finds that 50% of Canadians still support the initiative — even amid rising tension, environmental concerns, and opposition from several Indigenous communities and provincial leaders.

Nik Nanos

Liberals 39, Conservatives 38, NDP 10 as concern about jobs/the economy on the uptick. (Nanos)

After an initial Liberal lift immediately following the federal budget, the race has returned to a statistical Liberal-Conservative coin toss as Canadians increasingly become concerned about jobs/the economy. This has occurred in an environment where concern about Trump/the US has significantly dropped in the tracking.

Nik Nanos

A slim majority of Canadians and British Columbians would support or somewhat support building a new pipeline from Alberta to BC, even if BC opposes it or if the oil tanker ban is lifted.

More than five in ten Canadians support or somewhat support both building a new pipeline from Alberta to BC, even if BC opposes it (56%) and lifting the ban on oil tanker traffic in BC to support a new pipeline (55%), while about a third of Canadians oppose or somewhat oppose each (37% each). Residents of the Prairies are twice...

Bruce Anderson

Satisfaction with Carney government up 3 points to 62% - as voters think differently about economic challenges.

Normally if people are down about the economy they are angry at government. It’s more complicated right now, as people see economic pressures from outside our borders. Other than tagging every scandal something-gate, It’d be hard to find a more overused phrase in modern political analysis than “it’s the economy, stupid”. In 1992, James Carville wrote it on a sign...

Nik Nanos

Neutral consumer sentiment continues into holiday season

Canadian consumer sentiment continues in a neutral position with a score of 49.45 on the 100 point diffusion index that makes up the BNCCI. The forward looking Expectations Sub-Indice remains in negative territory but has been improving over the past four weeks.

Nik Nanos

Less than one in five Canadians believe the recent federal budget will improve or somewhat improve their personal finances.

Nik Nanos

Having the best jet fighter solution for the RCAF and job creation most popular drivers of opinion on the US F-35, Saab Gripen-E fighter decision

Nik Nanos

Majority of Canadians expect interest rates to hold or decrease over the next year

The research gauged the opinions among Canadians on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,009 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between November 29th and December 2nd, 2025 as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for this survey is ±3....

David Valentin

Edmonton Riverbend: Conservatives Lead by 5

A new Liaison Strategies riding poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows the Conservatives maintaining a narrow lead in Edmonton Riverbend - the riding where Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux has announced he will resign. Today’s release is the fourth in a series of daily riding polls Liaison published this week following polls of Acadie—Annapolis, Vancouver...

Politics Canada: Carney and Liberals Maintain Lead as Opposition Struggles to Gain Momentum

As Canada grapples with a period of intense political debate — including renewed controversy over the federal agreement with Alberta to fast-track construction of a new pipeline — the latest Leger survey on federal politics, conducted for Postmedia, shows that Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to enjoy relatively stable support across the country.

Premiers’ Performance: Manitoba’s Kinew tops year-end approval rankings; Ontario & Quebec leaders remain last

The political fortunes of Canada’s provincial leaders are varied this holiday season, with some – Manitoba’s Wab Kinew, New Brunswick’s Susan Holt, and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe – set for a merry break from the legislature. Others – namely Ontario’s Doug Ford and Quebec’s Francois Legault – may be in for a more Dickensian season of holiday introspection, as they contend...

David Valentin

Acadie—Annapolis: Liberals lead by 15

A new Liaison Strategies riding poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows new Liberal MP, Chris d'Entremont firmly in the lead in Acadie—Annapolis after crossing the floor. Today’s release is the third in a series of daily riding polls Liaison will publish this week following yesterday's poll of Vancouver Kingsway and an earlier poll of...

David Valentin

Vancouver Kingsway: NDP Lead by 9

A new Liaison Strategies riding poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows the NDP firming up support in Vancouver Kingsway. Today’s release is the second in a series of daily riding polls Liaison will publish this week following yesterday's poll of Eglinton-Lawrence. Conducted from November 24 to 30, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR), the...

David Coletto

A First Look at the Political Opinion Impact of the Canada–Alberta Energy MOU

The political news cycle moved quickly last week as the federal and Alberta governments announced a wide-reaching memorandum of understanding on energy and climate policy. The agreement includes a federal green light for a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast, a pause on clean electricity rules in Alberta, and a shared commitment to net-zero emissions by...

David Valentin

Eglinton Lawrence: Liberals Lead Tories by 11

A new Liaison Strategies riding poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows the Liberals firming up their lead in Eglinton–Lawrence, the city’s closest race in the last federal election. Today’s release is the first in a series of daily riding polls Liaison will publish this week following new national numbers released yesterday. Conducted from November...

David Coletto, Oksana Kishchuk

Carney Government Report Card: Canadians Still Prioritize Cost of Living and Housing as Support for Carney Government’s Agenda Holds Steady

When Mark Carney became Prime Minister earlier this year, he promised a new way of governing. A leadership built on strategic discipline, clearer expectations, and a tighter focus across a sprawling federal system. Rather than issuing dozens of mandate letters, Carney set out a unified set of seven national priorities meant to guide every minister and every department. The message...

Pipeline Politics: Post MOU announcement, Carney’s approval unchanged in B.C., picks up in Alberta

New public opinion polling data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute – the first comprehensive, regional and national dive into political dynamics since last week’s announcement of a memorandum of understanding regarding a potential pipeline from Alberta to northwest British Columbia – shows that while Prime Minister Mark Carney lost a cabinet minister who disapproved of the MOU deeply, the...

David Valentin

Liberals Dip to 41% (-3), Tories Steady at 36%

A new national Liaison Strategies poll conducted over the weekend shows the Carney Liberals down three points to 41%, while the Conservatives hold at 36%. Fielded after Carney announced a memorandum of understanding with Alberta on a pipeline, the survey also finds the NDP up two points to 12%, with some signs of life in British Columbia, where they now...

Bruce Anderson

Politics comes down to the swing voters. Who are they and what are they feeling?

When trying to image outcomes of US presidential elections, it’s normal to focus on a list of about 6-7swing states and more or less ignore the rest. What happens in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan pretty much decide which candidate gets the required number of electoral college votes and moves into the White House. But a lot...

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence neutral – Positive views on the future value of real estate hits a 7-month low (Bloomberg/Nanos)

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,084 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending November 28th, 2025. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,084 Canadians is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.

David Coletto

Federal Liberals Gain a Bit of Ground Post-Budget, But Stalemate Holds

Between November 20 and 27, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,421 Canadian adults to assess the post-budget political landscape. The survey was conducted just days after the Carney government passed its budget and survived a confidence vote. The results suggest that while the budget slightly lifted Liberal support and improved impressions of Prime Minister Mark Carney, it has not fundamentally altered...

60% could support an Alberta-BC pipeline nationally, but sign-off in Canada’s westernmost province no sure thing

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith were all smiles as they put their signatures to an energy co-operation agreement that specifies the conditions that must be met for a new bitumen pipeline to the Pacific to be approved under the federal major projects law.

Narrative Research

A strong majority of Canadians view President Donald Trump’s suggestion that Canada become the 51st U.S. state as insulting.

Recently, the U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, has said he doesn’t understand why Canadians are angry about comments regarding this country becoming a part of the United States. He has also stated publicly that when President Trump calls upon Canada to become the 51st American state, that it is a compliment and a term of endearment.

Nik Nanos

Canadians most likely to rank energy as sector with greatest potential to expand exports to non-US destinations; want to see Canada prioritize energy exports to Europe and Asia.

Nearly two in five Canadians (39%) believe it is the best time (score of 7-10 out of 10) for Canada to be ambitious in addressing climate change even if there are costs to the economy. This is consistent with the latest wave of tracking in May 2025 (37%). Over one in three say it is the worst time (score of...

Nik Nanos

Liberal advantage increases in post budget period. Liberals 42, Conservatives 37, NDP 9. Carney ahead of Poilievre by 27 points on preferred PM tracking

Nik Nanos

Consumer confidence continues to sputter in neutral.

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,053 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending November 21st, 2025. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,053 Canadians is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.