Day 2, Sunday – was a beautiful sunny day for the NAFTA re-negotiators. Not much happening so far. Indeed, little can happen before Ministers arrive to give their blessing to the “warp speed” efforts of the professionals labouring on the floor above us.The press corps is anxiously hoping for nuggets from the smiling, tight-lipped negotiators who are reluctant to admit even the blindingly obvious. We had a slightly better chance of success panning for gold at the base of the Rideau Falls – after all, it is down river from the Mint.Canada's chief negotiator, Steve Verheul, in an impromptu scrum outside the media centre saved the day for many. Nothing has been tabled by the US on sensitive issues so far. Mr. Verheul sounded upbeat and his tone was positive. Confirmation that Canada had filed its own proposals on improving Chapter 19 puts a different dimension on that crucial Canadian issue.It is a mystery how negotiators working at faster than the speed of light have progressed at a snail's pace to date.I don't pay much attention to the negotiating group (NG) agenda. In a fast tracked negotiation like this, nearly every NG must meet at every round, until particular issues are closed. More important is what is not being addressed – like Trade and Indigenous Peoples. Mexico clearly has different concerns and priorities on this Canadian proposal.But Canada's NAFTA modernization initiatives are not totally ignored. Washington is prepared to consider adding trade and gender issues to the Agreement as long as it does not go beyond the rather underwhelming provisions in the Canada – Chile FTA. And if there is any substance, heaven forbid it should be subject to dispute settlement. Lack of teeth and discipline would make a gender chapter meaningless. Expect Minster Freeland to be pushing this with all of her boundless energy.The US will give Canada the sleeves off its vest on its special issues. Optics are cheap. But optics will not compensate for the very real and unbalanced concessions Washington is demanding.Leaving aside the fate of Chapter 19, the big issue will be Trade Remedies. Normally these disciplines on injurious dumping and subsidies are not negotiated in FTAs. The Trump Administration has notified Congress of negotiating objectives addressing transparency and due process in anti-dumping and countervailing duty proceedings.Much attention has been focussed on demands for changes in the definition of industry to facilitate access to AD/CVD against seasonal fruit and vegetable exports from Mexico into Florida. Canada too could use such a revision to challenge seasonal imports of fruits and vegetables from the US. This risk that Canada would use this change is recognized by US fruit and vegetable exporters.It seems that the nine changes Washington wants to become NAFTA obligations are aimed at targets other than its NAFTA partners. I am not clear how the obligations would work but they appear to be designed to ensure harmonized trade remedy systems within NAFTA.The US would require no changes in law or practice to implement the “obligations”. Canada is virtually onside. Indeed, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) is far more open, fair and transparent than the US International Trade Commission.The proposed “new” trade remedy obligations are:
- establishment and maintenance of a system for the electronic filing of submissions;
- maintenance of an electronic file system;
- making electronically available laws, regulations, and other key documents;
- notification of the receipt of a petition;
- verification conduct and reporting;
- disclosure to interested parties of calculations that were used to calculate anti-dumping and countervailing duty margins in a proceeding;
- the consideration of information and data in AD and CVD “petitions filed in another NAFTA Party for purposes of self-initiation” of an AD and CVD proceeding “or other relevant action”;
- and the “exchange of third party subsidy information for purposes of self-initiation” of an AD and CVD proceeding or other relevant action,
- “and ,maintenance of an early-warning system to collect and publish data of sensitive imports into each NAFTA Party's territory.”