This past week the United States Department of Commerce released its long-awaited determination on new duties to be imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports.  This bad news represents the latest and most tangible iteration of the Trump administration's protectionist America-first trade policies.The practical effect: additional duties up to 23.76% would be imposed on Canadian softwood lumber exports into the United States. Given that the forest sector represents 7 percent of Canada's total exports and contributes $22.3 billion to Canada's GDP, the impact will be significant – in both countries.The Canadian government opposes the U.S. decision, calling it “unfair, unwarranted and deeply troubling,” and has pledged at least $867 million to support affected workers and communities.The new tariffs will impact workers in Canada and the U.S., and the Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA) controversy also serves as a proxy for the continued and growing dispute over US President Donald Trump's approach to NAFTA and other trade matters. Most ironically, it will hit hardest the communities in the New Brunswick-Maine forestry corridor, who together have built a mutually beneficial free-trade system over the past several decades.With this move, some 25 New Brunswick (N.B.) sawmills that support some 22,000 families in rural and remote communities are at risk of going out of business.It doesn't have to be this way.The 2006 SLA has provided predictability to producers in both countries, and the World Trade Organization and NAFTA panels have consistently determined that the Canadian system is not an unfair subsidy.For the past 35 years, three successive Softwood Lumber Agreements have also always included N.B. within what's called the Maritime Exclusion -- which exempts the Maritime provinces from duties. That exclusion is now gone, too.New Brunswick sawmills have always been seen as free traders because the production (supply) correlates with U.S. demand, without subsidy. This decision – ostensibly aimed at eliminating trade disparities – is patently unfair since N.B. is an open competition market, and stumpage fees are established based on the fair market value of timber sold on private lands.Conversely, Nova Scotia sawmills get an exclusion even though stumpage prices there are only marginally higher than New Brunswick.  There are also significant and unfair differences within the tariff regime that make no sense: N.B. sawmills have been levied with a 20.83% levy, but JD Irving ltd which harvests the same timber on N.B. crown lands, have been levied just 9.92%.This unfair decision is clearly motivated in part out of the desire to keep an illogical campaign promise.Donald J. Trump rode to the White House in part by pledging to destroy trade agreements he felt were hurting the American economy and American workers. Critics warned that many of his proposed solutions would be ineffective and could actually be counterproductive, leading to higher prices for goods and services and the loss of U.S. jobs dependent upon collaboration with foreign workers and companies.That's exactly what's happening with this lumber dispute. New Brunswick sawmills have an interconnected and interdependent relationship with Maine lumber and paper mills. For instance the Twin Rivers paper mill in Madawaska, Maine relies extensively on wood chips generated from N.B. lumber, and jobs there are suddenly at risk.In all, it's estimated that more than 1,000 Maine jobs – mill workers, sawmill operators, truckers - could see their jobs jeopardized by higher duties, and many of these jobs are in rural areas with few other employment opportunities.This danger has led Gov. Paul LePage of Maine, a Tea Party Republican, to complain about the higher levies on Canadian lumber. In an August 3 letter to U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, LePage warned that a new tariff regime would mean “companies will soon curtail or cease their operations and lay off Maine workers.”But the impact goes beyond Maine – In August, the National Association of Home Builders, the largest U.S. trade group representing the American residential construction sector, said new duties and a surge in demand for softwood lumber was likely to lead to sharp price increases as home builders begin to repair the damage from devastating hurricanes that hit Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico that month.Granger MacDonald, the group's chairman, cautioned that any application of new duties on Canadian softwood lumber “will be felt most harshly by families trying to rebuild” after the hurricanes.  (Demand, and prices, could go higher still in the aftermath of last month's wildfires in northern California.)The U.S. International Trade Commission is scheduled to make its final determinations on the Department of Commerce decision by December 18, 2017.  In the meantime, we urge the U.S. and Canadian governments to get back to the negotiating table and reach a managed trade agreement that will provide stability and certainty in market access and roll back these new tariffs.Leaving these new duties in place will mean the Trump administration will effectively be picking winners and losers -- and unfairly punishing a sector that has always been committed to a free trade system that has provided solid benefits on both sides of the border.Duane Woods is President of Chaleur Sawmills which directly employs 300 in northern New Brunswick.