Teaming up with local groups, the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute has organized three regional workshops on how to achieve the growth potential identified in a Federal Economic Advisory Council Report that has become known as the Barton Report.
The first Barton Forward session was held in Saskatoon last month in partnership with Ag-West Bio, said CAPI President Don Buckingham. The next ones are scheduled for Quebec in February and March 21 in Guelph in co-operation with the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph. There will be a wrap-up session in Ottawa later.
The Barton report identified the agrifood sector as having the potential for strong economic growth that the federal government should encourage as a test bed for helping other sectors with strong growth prospects.
Buckingham said the 50 attendees at the Saskatoon meeting were asked whether the agrifood growth potential identified by Barton and re-enforced in the 2017 federal budget were sustainable and what sectors could they come from. The meeting included producers, representatives from industry and governments, and other interested groups.
“We need increases in production and sales from all agrifood sectors to reach the $75 billion target for 2025,” he said. Export growth in the various components of the food processing sector are considered crucial to reaching the target.
In the opening presentation to the Saskatoon meeting, CAPI Chairman Ted Bilyea said Canada has a strong agrifood sector and growing global demand for food as a starting position.
The next step is how to unleash growth in the sector, he said. Canada could target an 8 per cent share of the international market for agriculture products by 2027 up from its 5.7 per cent share in 2015, an increase of more than $11 billion in sales. That would put it in second place behind the United States.
It could also aim to boost food product exports 5.6 per cent of the world market from the current 2.8 per cent. That would amount to a more than $19 billion increase in sales and leave us behind Germany, the U.S, Holland and France.
Based on current data, India, China and other developing Asian countries are the most promising markets.
India's GDP growth is expected to lead the world increasing by more than 6 per cent annually through 2027, Bilyea said based on figures compiled by the Conference Board of Canada. China's GDP will climb by just under 4 per cent a year during the next decade while the Asian countries will see their GDP rise by more 5 per cent. Sub-Sharan Africa will be next in the four per cent a year range followed by the Middle East and North Africa.
Overall the demand for food will grow at a slower rate than in recent years, Bilyea said. “The OECD projects growth in trade volumes, mirroring production growth, with the exception of a few commodities, will be much lower than during the previous decade. Vegetable oil, cereals and fish seems to be the main leaders.
Bilyea said the OECD also projects that Canada and other top five food exporters will gain an even bigger share of the global market than the 70 per cent they already have.
Canada is currently fifth and will likely face plenty of jockeying for position in the future, he said. Agriculture Canada expects agrifood exports to increase by 1.4 per cent per year through 2027 reaching $65 billion, which is $10 billion below than the 2017 budget goal.
Shipments of intermediate processed products will lead the way for Canadian exports ahead of bulk products with consumer products a distant third, he said.
One major challenge facing Canadian exports is competing highly subsidized products such as European pork, which has made major inroads in China and Japan. Canada needs to keep developing its market for chilled pork in Japan, which has climbed to 12,000 tonnes last year from less than 6,000 tonnes in 2011.
Wheat remains a major export from Canada slightly ahead of canola with specialty crops distant third.
Alex Binkley is a freelance journalist and writes for domestic and international publications about agriculture, food and transportation issues. He's also the author of two science fiction novels with more in the works.