Cereals expected to be increasingly in demand.   Ottawa—Farmers around the world will face many challenges to meeting growing global food demand in the coming decade, says a joint report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization. While agricultural productivity growth should stay ahead of the projected 15 percent increase in the demand for food by 2029, disruptions from trade tensions, the spread of crop and animal diseases such as African swine fever, growing resistance to antimicrobial substances, regulatory responses to new plant-breeding techniques, and increasingly extreme climatic events will be tough challenges for producers, the report said. Yield improvements and higher production intensity, driven by technological innovation, should result in higher output even as global agricultural land use remains broadly constant, the report said. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are expected to grow by some 0.5 percent annually during the decade, which is below the 0.7 percent rate of the past 10 years, and below the projected output growth rate – indicating declining carbon intensity. The demand for cereals, mainly rice and wheat, is projected to grow by about 150 million tonnes over the decade, a 13 percent increase, because of population growth, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Trade in agricultural and fisheries commodities should expand over the coming decade at around 1.3 percent annually, slower than over the 3.3 percent average in the last decade. While foreign supplies will remain essential for food security in a growing number food‑importing countries, the report said, “An escalation of ongoing trade tensions has the potential to reduce and redirect trade, with repercussions for international and foreign markets.” The demand for feed crops is projected to outpace animal production growth in countries where the livestock sector is evolving from traditional to commercialised production systems, the report said. Meanwhile the use of agricultural commodities in producing biofuels is expected to grow primarily in the developing countries. There will be robust demand for meat products, which should lead to increased livestock production through larger herds, it said. That will in turn stimulate increased production of feed crops such as corn and soybeans. Ken Ash, OECD Director for Trade and Agriculture, said in a statement that the report “makes abundantly clear that trade is critical for global food security. Regions that are experiencing rapid population growth are not necessarily those where food production can be increased sustainably, so it is essential that all governments support open, transparent and predictable agrifood markets.” Currently the international prices of most agricultural commodities have softened because strong supplies although with cereal, beef and lamb are showing short‑term rebounds, the report said. “Meat demand is expected to be relatively strong in the Americas, while low incomes continue to constrain meat consumption in Sub‑Saharan Africa,” the report said. “Fresh dairy products will meet much of the demand for protein in Asia, notably India and Pakistan. “More widely, per capita consumption of sugar and vegetable oils is expected to rise, driven by urbanisation and the shift to more processed and convenience foods. A combination of excessive calorie consumption, unbalanced diets and declining activity levels imply a growing burden of overweight and obesity in various countries across the world.” Biofuels formed a major source of crop demand growth between 2000 and 2015, but the expansion will be lower over the coming decade, with additional demand coming mainly from Indonesia, using vegetable oil for biodiesel, and China and Brazil, using cassava and sugarcane for ethanol, the report said. Because of the limitations in capture fisheries, nearly all projected growth in fish and seafood supply will be from aquaculture, pushing its share of total production to about 55 per cent by 2028.   Alex Binkley is a freelance journalist and writes for domestic and international publications about agriculture, food and transportation issues. He's also the author of two science fiction novels with more in the works.