Agrifood has many reasons to be concerned about its prospects in 2020

  • National Newswatch

Saving the WTO referee power and improving trade deals are important.   Ottawa—The export dependent agrifood sector faces obstacles everywhere these days and that's bad news for farmers and processors, says the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA). In a wide-ranging summary of trade conditions around the world, CAFTA says “signs point to a bumpy road in 2020. While overall Canadian agrifood exports increased and reached over $60 billion last year, our members remain negatively impacted by ongoing geopolitical issues, uncertainty and increased protectionism around the world.” The unbalanced trade deal with Europe, the uncertain status of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the chaotic relationship with China and other major trading partners are among the biggest headaches. One positive would be speedy ratification on the CUSMA trade deal and CAFTA is hoping that it will come by spring. A recent Export Development Canada survey “shows that trade confidence is down to 69.3 per cent, the lowest it has been since 2012.” Trade barriers, escalating trade tensions and the U.S. trade dispute with China are all undermining international trade. Even without the coronavirus-induced chaos in China, “Protectionism and concern about the global economy are key issues weighing on the minds of Canadian exporters. “The list of agri-food products affected by trade barriers seems to grow every week as governments introduce non-tariff measures at an alarming rate,” CAFTA said. “While many of these regulations are designed to address legitimate health and safety objectives, many are not and are disguised as legitimate. “The worst is when they come up with no warning and no scientific rationale. It's affecting farmers and the value chains for canola, pulses, cereals, beef and pork, in addition to food manufacturers.” Among CAFTA's recommendations for government action this year is taking “every opportunity to secure favourable terms of access to foreign markets that present meaningful opportunities including through new or expanding existing trade agreements.” Now that Pacific trade deal has been in effect for a year, “initial data on exports looks promising, apart from outstanding grains issues in Vietnam. It is encouraging to see that developing rules-based trade is a driving force behind continued CPTPP implementation.” The European trade deal hasn't been as successful because “significant barriers remain that are preventing Canadian agri-food exporters from taking advantage of opportunities in the EU market. We remain supportive of the overall promise of CETA, but we are disappointed with the lack of progress on removing technical constraints and other non-tariff barriers which are taking considerable time to be adequately resolved.” Italian tariffs on Canadian durum are a prime example. Despite current tensions in bilateral relations between Canada and China, it remains Canada's second largest trading partner and a vital market for agrifood exporters. CAFTA says “China is projected to be the largest importer of food worldwide by 2025, which means the opportunities for Canada's agri-food exporters are enormous. That is why we must engage with China bilaterally as well as in multilateral fora to ensure we continue to deepen the Canada-China relationship through rules-based, mutually-beneficial trade.” Canada also needs to remain at the forefront of developing a new way for the WTO to remain the world's trade referee by reforming its dispute resolution processes, restructuring its overall governance and revitalizing the multi-lateral negotiation process. CAFTA is also watching bilateral talks with the Pacific Alliance and Mercosur as well as potential talks with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that could more doors to Canadian foods. Canada also needs to keep working on a new trade with the United Kingdom in preparation for its formal departure from the European Union trade deal. Alex Binkley is a freelance journalist and writes for domestic and international publications about agriculture, food and transportation issues. He's also the author of two science fiction novels with more in the works.