Keeping the U.S. border open is vital. Ottawa—There are four short-term and four longer-term threats to maintaining an adequate domestic food supply during the coming months, a high-level dialogue in the agrifood sector has determined. During the coming months, the sector will have to keep grappling with finding sufficient labour, transportation, technical expertise, processing and storage and disruption in input supplies due to the COVID-19 pandemic, says a report from the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI). As well, there will be challenges caused by a shortage of food-safety inspectors and a lack of regulatory agility to adjust to fast changing needs, getting perishables across borders and trade restrictions. On top of that will be the impact of a global recession, exchange rate fluctuations, commodity shortages and price inflation. CAPI conducted a dialogue with 40 key players in the agrifood sector to determine how the agrifood was being affected by the pandemic. It plans to use this intelligence to plot a future course for the sector. The longer-term threats the dialogue identified are a breakdown and fracturing of global and domestic supply chains; loss of markets, inability to import and source product, trade wars and increased tariff protection as well as shortages, food price inflation and lack of affordability and access, loss of consumer trust in food safety and potential civil unrest. The other worry is massive unemployment, depopulation of rural areas and loss of know-how. The dialogue agreed the food supply chain has worked well helped by federal and provincial essential service designations. However, there are “weak links along the supply chains and that we may be fast approaching a tipping point where we will not be able to maintain supply.” The CAPI report said there is a major concern about the health of workers in the agrifood sector. Despite numerous efforts to protect them and increased wages, companies are experiencing increased absenteeism and employees taking leave. Some plants have closed temporarily. “This could ultimately result in cost pressures. In addition, because of the dependence of many supply chains on imported ingredients or products, the health of workers at ports and of federal and provincial inspectors are also a concern.” The shortage of skilled labour such as truck drivers, technical experts, mechanics and maintenance workers brought in to repair machinery and equipment could quickly become another headache for the sector, the report said. As well, employers are grappling with “the retention of skilled workers as well as the recruitment of new ones and proper training to address the redundancy required in the event of illness and worker absenteeism remain important issues.” Government inspection is are required to keep many food plants working and any shortages will hit meat, fish and fruit and vegetable processing plants. “This can lead to slowdowns in supply chains. Shortages of inspectors at ports and licensed graders transporting milk all contribute to the lack of redundancy. Allowing for some flexibility in enforcing regulations at plants, during transport of live animals and commodities and interprovincially and cross border would allow for less rigidity and fewer potential bottlenecks in the system. The creation of the Ontario Incident Command Centre has become a model for co-ordinated communication and response to any crisis, the report said. Keeping the Canada-U.S. border open to food shipments is vital. “Any threat to the free movement of these items could be devastating for any number of players in the supply chain. Thus far, both the U.S. and Canada have understood the significance of this need and the borders have remained opened for trade purposes only.” Alex Binkley is a freelance journalist and writes for domestic and international publications about agriculture, food and transportation issues. He's also the author of two science fiction novels with more in the works.