Much of the reporting has been misleading or simply false. Compare the BBC headline from April 24th, “Coronavirus: US death toll passes 50,000 in world's deadliest outbreak”, with reality. Influenza virus infects over 1 billion people worldwide annually, with up to 646,000 deaths, 12,000 to 61,000 in the US alone (Johns Hopkins). Infection Prevention and Control Canada (IPAC) recorded 42,355 cases of influenza during the 2019-20 flu season. Statistics Canada shows 8,511 deaths during 2018 from influenza and pneumonia. Malaria killed 435,000 people in 2017 (WHO). Coronavirus is. in fact, far from being the “world's deadliest outbreak”.
With this sort of relentless fearmongering on the front pages daily, it is hardly surprising that pandemic panic set in. Even the term “pandemic” itself is enough to cause gasps. The WHO definition, “a pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease”, is not however a measure of mortality.
Why then the doomsday reporting?
A 2019 research article published in Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences entitled “Cross-national evidence of a negativity bias in psychophysiological reactions to news” (Soroka/Fournier/Nir), found what publishers have known for a long time…bad news travels fast. The report states, “Our evidence suggest that, all around the world, the average human is more physiologically activated by negative than by positive news stories.” Science, it seems, supports the prevailing hierarchy of news programming. If it bleeds, it leads. What are the odds of contracting COVID-19?
The Math, as of May 5th:
Canada
- 61,959 Confirmed Cases
- 37,894,799 Population
- 0.18% Probability of Confirming Positive
- 4,036 Deaths = 0.01% Probability of Death.
Worldwide
- 3.26M Confirmed
- 7.8B Population
- 0.04% Probability of Confirming Positive
- 253,000 Deaths = 0.003% Probability of Death.
Canada -
- 8,511 Deaths (2018) = 0.02% Prob Death
Worldwide
- 650,000 Deaths Annually = 0.008% Probability Death.
As the data show, your chances of dying from influenza in Canada are twice as great as from COVID-19, and almost three times greater worldwide.
Comparing the probability of death from COVID-19 in Canada (0.01%) and Worldwide (0.003%) suggests that the chances of dying from COVID-19 in Canada is roughly the same as from suicide or HIV/AIDs. Globally, the risk of being murdered is greater. Canadians are twice as likely to die from Alzheimer's Disease. Heart disease and cancer remain the top two killers worldwide.
- Heart Disease – 8.9M Deaths Annually = 0.11% Prob Death
- Cancer – 82,100 Deaths 2019 Canada = 0.22% Prob Death
- Murder – 400,000 Deaths Annually Global = 0.005% Prob Death
- Suicide – 3,811 Deaths 2018 Canada – 0.01% Prob Death
- Hepatitis – 1.34M Deaths 2015 Global – 0.017% Prob Death
- HIV/AIDS – 770,000 Related Deaths 2018 Global – 0.01% Prob Death
- Alzheimer's – 18.2 out of 100,000 Canadians 2017 Deaths - 0.02% Prob Death.
To date, none of the more lethal killers above have caused mass hysteria or a global shut-down. Lacking media attention, people in the West are barely aware that malaria and dengue hemorrhagic fever infect millions every year.
Before recoiling at the sight of fellow pedestrians, it might be therapeutic to put the actual risk in perspective.