Second wave of Codid-19 could disrupt important export markets.   Ottawa—Much improved harvest conditions and good yields in many crops provide some optimism for farmers although there is a risk that a second wave of Covid-19 around the world could disrupt exports. That's the outlook from Craig Klemmer, Principal Agriculture Economist of Farm Credit Canada. “The first nine months of 2020 have been challenging for grains, oilseeds, and pulse producers. The year began with significant concern due to 2019 harvest challenges, numerous trade issues, including canola, durum, peas, and lentils.” The pandemic led to many closures and trade restrictions that disrupted trade flows, he said. “Some concerns quickly alleviated as reduced rail demand created increased capacity for grains, oilseeds, and pulses. Reductions in Indian import tariffs on Canadian lentils supported prices, while canola exports traditionally destined for China found opportunities in Europe.” Unlike 2019's Harvest from Hell on the Prairies, the 2020 harvest was completed ahead of normal with average to above-average yields, he said. In eastern Canada, timely rains have supported corn and soybeans although small grain production was poor. At the same time, “Strong Chinese purchases and lower expected supplies in the U.S. are supporting producer prices, especially oilseed,” Klemmer said. “Through the first nine months of 2020, producer deliveries were 13.6 per cent higher than in the same period in 2019, and exports are up 2.3 per cent.” FCC's forecast is for “stronger oilseed prices, while pulse and grains prices will be mixed. Canola and soybean prices are projected to stay higher than the first nine months of 2020 and their 5-year average. India's decision to reduce import tariffs on Canadian lentils will continue to support lentil prices, while pea prices will struggle if Indian import tariffs remain. Corn and spring wheat prices are anticipated to trend higher than the 5-year average, while barley prices remain similar or slightly higher.” Statistics Canada numbers indicate higher Canadian corn, soybean, pulse, and wheat production while canola and barley could slightly decline. “Demand projections will also be critical. More timid export demand in 2020-21 for grains, oilseeds and pulses could lead to a jump in ending stocks and temper current positive price projections.” The second Covid wave could “slow the re-opening of economies, limiting demand for food services and fuel,” he said. “This could negatively impact the demand for cooking oils and ethanol.” The latest IMF economic projections “suggest a long ascent towards the level of economic activity prevailing before the pandemic. A slower recovery for the Canadian economy in the second half of 2020 means that interest rates will remain near historical lows for quite some time. Alex Binkley is a freelance journalist and writes for domestic and international publications about agriculture, food and transportation issues. He's also the author of two science fiction novels with more in the works.