Fertilizer prices will remain a challenge in 2023.Ottawa—Strong prices seem to in store for this year's crops and the outlook for 2023 suggests more of the same although maybe not as high as in the 2012-22 marketing year, says Farm Credit Canada.Still the prices will continue to support profitability across the country, FCC said in its latest outlook. “Western crop margins are expected to remain strong throughout the fall marketing season. In the East, corn and soybeans will be positive, and while winter wheat will face more pressure, they're also expected to remain positive.”Demand remains the key driver in global crop markets due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine throwing commodity markets into chaos. The prices have been influenced by the combination of low beginning stocks and high global demand for most crops.“The supply-demand imbalance that could best be offset by a good northern hemisphere harvest of the 2022-23 crop. That has happened, but only to a certain extent across major field crop production this year,” FCC said.While soybeans, canola, lentils and durum prices fell slightly below FCC's previous forecast, each crop price ended well above their respective 5-year average. “Our forecasts show that will also be the case in the 2022-23 MY, but with most prices falling from the highs of the 2021-22 crop year.The USDA estimates global ending stocks of total grains for the 2021-22 marketing year will be marginally lower year-over-year “as increases in both production and total supply negate a large increase in demand. The stocks-to-use ratio shows a corresponding uptick for the year that's expected to dissipate in the coming crop year. As a result, grain carry-out stocks are also expected to shrink 3.4 per cent YoY in 2022-23, FCC said.Agriculture Canada (AAFC) says increased usage and drought-impacted production of coarse grains in the 2021-22 MY combined to produce a 13.7 per cent decline in overall carry-out stocks. “However, this should be rectified in the 2022-23 MY, as total utilization falls slightly and production rebounds to near 2020 levels.”Global ending stocks of wheat faced a similar crunch in the 2021-22 MY and are expected to have fallen 5.1 per cent YoY as growth in demand outpaced production. “For the upcoming year, output is expected to increase marginally, and demand is expected to fall marginally. But taken together and Global demand for wheat has risen faster, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio lower during the last two years.”AAFC does not expect canola production to reach the pre-drought 2020-21 level, but it will grow 38.9 per cent in the 2022-23 MY. But with domestic demand likely to grow 8.2 per cent in the coming year and with staggeringly low carry-in stocks to start the year, the 2022-23 carry-out stocks are expected to fall to 500,000 tonnes.“The growing influence of climate change on global weather patterns has disrupted crop production, aiding and abetting seemingly permanent pressure on global supplies,” FCC said. “If that's now the status quo, the more transitory influences of geopolitical turmoil and inflation during a global pandemic can produce overwhelming uncertainty in commodity markets.”The Ukraine invasion is among the factors disrupting fertilizer production and fertilizer prices are expected to remain high well beyond 2023.Reports of strong crops in Russia and China, the continued possibility of open borders in the Black Sea region, and excellent soy trade out of South America, may prove to weaken some crop prices in the coming months.But forecasts of large declines in European crops, threatened border closures, and still-strong demand for canola, pulses, barley and wheat means continued price strength. And as the U.S. dollar strengthens and the Canadian loonie weakens, that will only add to the prices received by Canadian producers.