My engineer friend Kevin always tells me, “When something doesn't make sense, it's because you're missing a variable.” Good guy, Kevin. He's from Renfrew County, likes to hunt, small-C conservative type, suburban. Someone in the Conservative voter coalition, but a vote that can't be taken for granted.Well, my fellow Conservatives, something doesn't make sense with our election results since 2019. We've tried it both ways, Conservative light and Conservative heavy, and both approaches failed.

Now, I am not going to get dramatic about the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection. I understand that byelections favour incumbent governments, and despite what we may think in the Ottawa bubble, Pierre Poilievre is still an unknown commodity to many voters.

But with the Liberal-NDP coalition splintering and the threat that Justin Trudeau might manufacture a spring election on the issue of health care, Conservatives should be concerned about Monday's result. The issue set favoured the Conservative candidate, the Liberals are navigating several significant scandals, and the Liberal candidate was previously defeated by a provincial conservative candidate just four years ago. Conservatives still didn't win.

As Kevin would say, it doesn't make sense. Conservatives are missing a variable.

Why are we continuing to lose when our opponent is getting weaker and weaker? My former colleague Dan Robertson has rightly pointed out that the NDP vote is collapsing, so what factors are limiting Conservative growth among centrist voters who are now more essential than ever? Here are three of the most overlooked factors:

First, the Conservative Party of Canada has a significant digital media deficit. Now, it should be pointed out that this deficit is being quickly addressed. Not only has Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre mastered the art of producing understandable, relatable, and shareable online content, but it's clear from a quick search of Twitter that many Conservative MPs have hired professionals to help produce compelling video content for their social channels. But while producing strong organic content is important, paid is even more important. Simply put, too few Conservative operatives have mastered the art of using digital paid advertising to reach voters directly and with a message specifically targeted to them. Since 2015, Conservatives have been consistently outperformed when it comes to digital ad variations, and I suspect an analysis of the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection will show a continuation of that trend.Second, the Liberal brand is synonymous with public policy that better reflects voter values and beliefs. Is the Liberal hunting rifle ban going to address criminal behaviour? No. Was the use of the Emergencies Act justified? No. Is spending billions to support low-income families going to ease inflationary pressures? No. But while these policies are poorly thought out, it doesn't matter to voters. Why? Because these policies reflect voter values. Despite facing some very real challenges in this country, most voters continue to side with a political party that reflects their personal values, as opposed to the party that represents the best option for good governance.Finally, voters are rejecting candidates who are too ideological. Just look what happened in the United States to both Republican and Democratic candidates, or to Catherine McKenney during the Ottawa mayoral campaign. Voters, especially in Ontario, want a Doug Ford coalition of pragmatism that governs in a more flexible manner, adapting to the realities of new situations and circumstances. Of course, this flexibility must mirror the values of voters as I mentioned above, but generally, voters are becoming more interested in candidates who can govern effectively and quietly, without causing conflict. I believe this new reality explains why the Liberals have pivoted and are now defending Canada's economic dependence on oil and gas, as well as planning to return the country to a balanced budget. In contrast, federal Conservatives continue to advocate for uncompromising positions on gun rights, defunding the CBC, and eliminating the carbon tax.These are some variables Conservatives are missing that could be contributing to the party's election woes since 2019. Or maybe, none of these issues matter and politics is simply cyclical as my smart friend Kate Harrison often reminds me. Whatever the issue may be, Conservatives need to wake up and fully understand why we keep losing. Even if the lack of success is due to timing and opportunity, understanding these variables will help ensure the party maintains and expands its coalition once it forms government.Jake Enwright is the Vice President of Public Affairs and Communications for Syntax Strategic and former senior adviser for previous leaders of the Conservative Party of Canada.