Skewing poll results to make a point

  • National Newswatch

How polling on Islamophobia and Canada's brokenness can be misinterpreted to suit a narrative.Marketing surveys and opinion polls can have unintended consequences depending on how questions are asked, and how the results are interpreted.In the 80s, New Coke overwhelmingly beat both regular Coke and Pepsi in blind taste tests, surveys, and focus groups. About 12 percent of testers felt angry and alienated at the thought, and said they might stop drinking Coke. Rather than read the warning signs, Coca-Cola saw the results it wanted to see. The rest is history and it's a lesson taught in marketing classes ever since.Two Léger Marketing polls are making news these days, and getting Ottawa politicians excited.The first survey dates back to 2019 and was commissioned by the Association for Canadian Studies. It was initially offered exclusively to the Montreal Gazette and Le Devoir news organizations. Why? Because polls about hot topics make headlines. And can resurface four years later to rattle a Prime Minister.The poll aimed to measure support for Bill 21, the law on secularism that bars teachers, principals and vice-principals from wearing religious symbols like hijabs, kippahs and turbans in public schools. It also bars such authority figures as police officers, crown prosecutors and prison guards from wearing them.The poll's findings were reported in the Gazette under this headline: “A new poll shows support for Bill 21 is built on anti-Islam sentiment.” The article highlighted that “only 28 percent of people had a positive view of Islam, and 37 percent had a positive view of Muslims. Among those who have negative feelings about Islam, 88 percent support a ban on religious symbols for public school teachers.”A month after Bill 21 was passed, Amira Elghawaby and Bernie Farber published an OpEd with this assertion: “Unfortunately, the majority of Quebecers appear to be swayed not by the rule of law, but by anti-Muslim sentiment. A poll conducted by Léger Marketing earlier this year found that 88 percent of Quebecers who held negative views of Islam supported the ban.” One cannot conclude from the data that a majority of Quebecers are swayed by anti-Muslim sentiment.Another finding from the survey probably did not fit the authors' narrative: 64 percent of Quebecers surveyed agreed with the statement “I enjoy living in a society with a diversity of cultural and religious groups”.Ms. Elghawaby had to apologize for her misinterpretation of survey results and other opinions posted online.The other Léger survey making headlines aimed to measure the degree to which Canadians feel the country is broken.The National Post asked on its front page “Is Canada broken? 67% say yes”. But that's not what the survey asked. The question was: “Recently a Canadian politician stated that “it feels like everything is broken in this country right now” To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?Léger did not ask Canadians if they felt the country is broken. It asked if they agreed with how a politician feels. I doubt the results would have been the same had it asked Canadians whether they agree or disagree that the country is broken. Not if it feels that way. But that probably would not have made the front page.It's not surprising that Andrew Enns, Léger's executive vice-president, “didn't think it would be that high. I thought maybe it was more a noisy minority as opposed to a prevailing majority of opinion”. As German mathematician Georg Cantor reminds us, “to ask the right question is harder than to answer it.”Is there a growing sense that the government (not the country) is broken? Most likely. You can feel it. And one politician is clearly benefiting from that feeling and amplifying it.That feeling won't be countered by a Prime Minister saying that Canada is not broken. He'll have to make Canadians feel it.