Unpopular opinion: winning makes for boring Conservative punditry

  • National Newswatch

I enjoy it when Conservatives are winning, but just like trade deadline coverage in sports with no trades, it can be boring.Was it just me, or was it really quiet in federal Conservative political circles this summer? All the big intrigue and drama happened in the Liberal party, and federal Conservatives managed to tip-toe around those issues. We are almost done with summer, and Poilievre's Conservatives have made no big mistakes. There are also no lingering leadership doubts, and the Caucus is united. Conservatives are winning. Liberals are losing. That said, a few small subjects deserve some thought and exploration.First, let's talk about the World Economic Forum (WEF). Nothing makes me roll my eyes faster than the subject of the WEF. The whole issue is just so stupid, and like so many other issues, many opinions about the WEF can be true at once. No, it's not an intentional Conservative dog whistle. No, the media coverage of the Conservative message isn't unfair or a coordinated attack. No, the WEF isn't going to usher in a new global order. Anyone who has worked in a constituency office over the last 15 years can tell you that folks have been banging on about the WEF forever. It's not new. Criticism of the WEF is primarily a manifestation of a Western democratic political reality in that some people, albeit fewer in Canada than in other countries, believe that independence from international institutions is integral to national sovereignty.So why are Conservatives focused on the issue? Well, because Poilievre knows how to communicate to single-issue voters without alienating others. He understands this approach better than any other politician. He rightly knows that criticizing the WEF will secure him a loyal voter pool of anti-WEFers without alienating the soccer moms, for example. The soccer moms, like me, don't care about the WEF. These voters instead care about issues Poilievre already commands overwhelming trust and support on: crime and the cost of living.Second, the Liberal plan to cut $15 billion in government spending to wedge the Conservatives on fiscal responsibility. This is simply a poorly thought-out wedge because the Conservatives again command trust and support on the issue of fiscal responsibility. Poilievre is smart to avoid saying whether he supports the cuts (he obviously does), but when he inevitably votes against these cuts in an upcoming budget, no one will believe the Conservative leader has suddenly discarded his belief in fiscal responsibility. As I said, it is a bad wedge.But if Poilievre becomes Prime Minister, how will he approach balancing the budget? What a lot of people don't know is that there were many Conservative Members of Parliament (MPs) who opposed Harper's 5-10% reduction to all federal spending. These MPs thought Harper upset too many stakeholders from too many sectors of the Canadian economy. The belief was that these stakeholders would react just as negatively to a 1% spending cut as they would 100%. With that logic, these MPs thought it was better to cut spending to just a few departments but to increase the reduction percentage greatly. Many MPs who held this belief are now influential figures in the current Conservative Caucus and with Poilievre. I'd expect Poilievre to cut deep but only to specific departments or agencies with mandates outside Conservative ideological boundaries.Finally, one mistake Conservatives could foreseeably make is underestimating Justin Trudeau's ability to chameleon himself into something he is not. Think about it. Trudeau was once accused of groping a female journalist, so he became a feminist. Trudeau has a trust fund, so he became Minister Middle Class. And during the last election, when Trudeau and his team thought he might be losing, he threw his sunny ways brand on the ground and took a flamethrower to it by telling Canadians that a vote for Erin O'Toole was akin to condemning thousands to a COVID death.As Trudeau tries to become the champion of fiscal responsibility, lower taxes and affordable housing, Conservatives can't just laugh and shrug their shoulders at such ridiculous assertions. Instead, Conservatives must continue to push back with facts and remind Canadians of Trudeau's record. Obviously, this isn't novel thinking, but voters have short memories, and most voters only see what's in front of them, not what is in the past. It's a real danger for the Conservatives to assume that after eight years, Trudeau won't be able to convince voters he is still the solution to their problems. As I said, Trudeau is a master at becoming something he is not.I may be wrong, and these subjects are significant issues. But if I am wrong, then Team Poilievre's discipline and message control has made nothing-burgers out of these potential issues. It's been quiet and calm this summer in federal Conservative political circles. Quiet and calm is good when you are winning.Jake Enwright is the Vice President of Government Relations and Public Affairs for Syntax Strategic and former senior advisor for previous leaders of the Conservative Party of Canada.