CAPI proposes a toolbox approach to deal with the threat. Ottawa—Supply chain disruptions have caused plenty of headaches in the agrifood sector in recent years and now it must prepare for the risk of even greater breakdowns in the future, says a new study. The Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI) said, “Following years of disruption, driven by a pandemic, climate change and extreme weather, geopolitics and more, there is increasing concern about the reliability of supply chains.” There is a risk of converging crises creating a greater threat than any one crisis or peril, CAPI said in a new report. A crisis management toolbox needs to be developed to enable the sector to respond to such an event. The toolbox would enhance the sector's resilience while providing a platform for increased supply chain efficiencies, CAPI said. It would have six components that need to be developed sequentially. It would also help overcome the lack of a long-term vision for the sector that constrains the effective research, strategy, and analysis needed to cope with supply chain vulnerabilities. They include climate and trade disasters, new and emerging diseases and pathogens, international trade conflicts, sharp inflation in input costs, and cyber security. As well, the sector needs to be able to grapple with broad-based economic issues, environmental and social health, industry planning, a lack of coordination and concern over government intervention, the increasing impact of climate change and the need for adaptation and water access and availability. Agri-food policy has typically seen supply chain vulnerabilities as transactional events that can be contained and managed. “This is inconsistent with the risks of converging crises and the unique role of the food supply chain, and there is an opportunity and need to move beyond existing approaches,” CAPI said. “Although agriculture has always been characterized by wide-ranging uncontrollable risks – weather, pests, diseases, competitors and markets – the growing commercialization and sophistication of production, processing, and marketing have created an evolving and complex environment for decision making.” Agrifood chains must function effectively and efficiently while being resilient and adaptable in a world of increasing risk. “Responsive policies, programs, actions, and strategies built through consultation and collaboration are required to create and maintain a thriving sector.” A new level of shared situational awareness is needed to support and maintain Canada's enviable agrifood's position through a combination of geopolitical tensions, climate change and pandemics. “The convergence of multiple crises – sometimes compounding, sometimes interrelated and sometimes both – can result in synergistic impacts in which the total disruptive power is greater than the sum of the parts.” The toolbox contains six tools that build upon one another sequentially, and in the aggregate, deliver a powerful decision support process/product.” The report is the first phase in the development and application of the toolbox and will aid in the identification and visualization of system-level disruptive forces, their dynamic relationships, their scales of operation, and quantitative impacts on the system., CAPI said. The tools are participatory consultations, case studies, vulnerability mapping, force-disruptor-vulnerability mapping, risk topography visualization and foresight analysis. They will enable effective adaptation opportunities and optimization of resource allocation critical to successful long-term planning and policy making. It will provide farmers and other stakeholders with the roadmap to build informed, forward looking, and insightful short-, medium-, and long-term plans for their operations, including farm succession and transition plans, which are critical for the stability and resilience of the Canadian agri-food ecosystem.