There’s been a debate that has attracted non-stop commentary for weeks and spawned a crisis of confidence within the Democratic Party about Joe Biden. There’s been an attempted assassination of Donald Trump and the announcement of his running mate. Plenty of action and drama, but with what impact?
The conventional wisdom is that it’s foolhardy to try to call an election in July for which voters cast ballots in November. Sure lots of things can change, but that doesn’t mean they will, and most of the evidence so far, is that change is happening, at the margin. Important enough to be decisive in a close election, but without showing up like “big bangs” in polling data.
The net effect of recent events, has been to strengthen Trump’s bid and weaken Biden’s. The fact that we see only marginal movements confirms the basic evidence that US politics is frozen battlefield crowded with partisans most of whom won’t consider switching their support.
But looking at the underlying fundamentals of the campaign confirms that things are ugly for the Democrats and Biden.
- People think the economy is weak and unlikely to strengthen
- Voters think both candidates are too old, but Biden seems much older
- Voters have priced in Trump’s personality, and he pays no price for behaving badly.
- Voters have priced in Biden’s record, and him explaining it seems to have no impact.
- Biden is losing the support of many in his party, while Trump is praised by everyone in his party, even those who had criticized him in the past.
To the extent that it’s true that when times seems chaotic and nervous-making, voters gravitate towards someone who projects strength, this accrues enormously to Trump’s advantage right now.
National polls don’t tell a nuanced enough story about what will happen in swing states but it isn’t right to say they are meaningless. Trump has been leading Biden throughout July, right now the lead is 2%. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.4% That’s a shift of 6.4% in Trump’s favour - which as frozen battlefields go is a very big deal. (fivethirtyeight.com)
The widely respected Cook Political Report has the gap even a little wider for Trump in it’s curated polling averages at 2.4%. Cook’s analysis also highlights some important subgroup data – which help explain Trump’s competitive strengths in 2024.
Remarkably, given Trump’s history, including being found guilty of sexual assault, he has 43% support among women. Trump is 12 points ahead of Biden among men, and Biden has only a 7-point lead among women.
Trump has 20% support among Black voters and 42% among Hispanic voters. Both numbers might seem hard to explain given how the MAGA movement has flirted with white nationalist influences, and the way that Trump describes immigrants to America.
Trump has a massive 30 point lead among non-college educated white people, which is not surprising – this has been a big part of his base. But he has 41% support among white people with a college education – far more competitive with this group than might have been expected given his indifference or worse towards science and expertise.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is among voters 18-29. By some exit poll estimates Joe Biden beat Trump among this group by 30-points four years ago. But today that lead is only 7 points.
People can debate how much of this is about feelings about the economy, frustration with Biden’s age, or an improvement in how people recall the Trump Presidency, all of which are undoubtedly part of the equation. At the end of the day, though, they spell political disaster for the Democrats.
The latest polling in swing states has Trump leading in Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin is a bit more unsettled: Trump has a lead in 8 of the last 10 polls, but Biden shows a 1-point lead in the latest numbers.
Five states voted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump is leading in four.
Yes it’s true that the election result is impossible to predict now, and things can change. But Democrats face a wall of worry. Two thirds of their supporters want a different nominee.
A big, televised convention featuring a prime time speech by Joe Biden is an enormous risk. The best-case scenario will be viewers concluding it was better than they feared it would be – hardly the stuff of which post-convention bounces are made. A worse, and more plausible outcome, is that speech will confirm most voters fears about Biden’s fitness for office, and the party will exit the convention with even less support than they have today.