In early 2019, Kamala Harris drew a lot of attention in the early going of the Democratic nomination race. She polled in a top tier of candidates, alongside Biden, Sanders, and Warren. By the end of the year, her support had shrunk by about 75%, money dried up, and she dropped out.
Five years later, she’s filling stadiums, raising hundreds of millions of dollars and leapfrogging Donald Trump in the polls. What helps explain this?
The most important factor is that voters wanted something other than Biden versus Trump. Time after time, polls were sending this message to Democrats and Republicans, and both parties ignored this pent-up demand, circling wagons around their geriatric and unappealing standard bearers.
There was almost no chance this would change. Until the Trump-Biden debate on June 27th. More than 50 million Americans watched it live on mainstream networks. Many millions more shared and saw clips on social media platforms, and CBS News and USA Today streamed the debate. Remembering that 158 million people voted in 2020, it’s a fair bet that a big proportion of likely 2024 voters were affected by this debate.
According to YouGov post-debate results, people didn’t like what they saw. 63% said it wasn’t enjoyable, including 76% of Democratic Party supporters. For every person who thought Joe Biden was the winner of the debate – five others felt Donald Trump came out on top. It was an epic fail for Biden, and set in motion pressures that led inevitably to his decision to relinquish the nomination, less than a month later.
In any other circumstance, the next page in this story would be about the great boost in support this offered to the Republicans and Trump. Such a decisive debate win is almost unheard of in an era where competitors are coached in rope-a-dope techniques, focusing on avoiding mistakes. Trump felt he was on a roll, couldn’t lose, and about 2 weeks later announced his running mate would be JD Vance. It was a cocky choice, violating the first rule for running mates – that they do no harm. Does anyone today doubt that Trump would have been better off picking Doug Burgum?
Picking Vance drew unfavourable attention, especially for his past comments on the role of women in society and his point of view that parents are essentially better citizens than people who don’t have kids. His awkwardness on the stump compounded the sense that Trump had attached himself to a deadweight rather than made a choice that locked in 12 years of MAGA reign.
Enter Kamala Harris 2.0. The Democratic Party which seemed so divided in recent years found instant unity, with only 100 days till the election and faced with the prospect of a Trump-Vance win. Polls said a mini-race to pick a nominee might have been a more popular choice among voters – but the party leadership made a different calculation, quickly, bloodlessly, and that bet paid off well, so far.
Harris might have caused some doubts among deeply engaged politicos on the Democratic side, but turns out lots of voters didn’t really have well developed opinions about her, and reacted with fresh eyes and ears. Within a day or two, she had ticked off the first major box – she was clearly different from Trump and Biden. Her energy and enthusiasm was contagious, her mind seemed a lot quicker than Biden’s and a lot clearer than Trump’s. She radiated hopefulness that replaced despondency about the choices.
Still, there were bound to be questions about her. A liberal feminist from California could be a hard sell in the heartland of America. Would she sound like someone who believed in America or believed America was deeply flawed? Would she radiate and instill confidence, against an opponent whose anchoring attribute seemed to be projecting strength in an uncertain world? Would she be relatable to the millions of young men who have been sliding towards the Republicans in recent years?
So far, her effort has been a master class in meeting the moment. Her message is hyper-positive, filled with themes about love for and belief in America. She is careful to respect Biden’s record but spends little time asking for support based on that record. She throws hard punches at Trump, but doesn’t demean the people who’ve voted for him in the past. And her pick of “Coach” Tim Walz of Minnesota looks like a potentially huge advantage in opening minds of heartland voters, perhaps in particular young men. He’s showing a version of male behaviour that is at once traditional and compassionate and progressive.
Today’s polls are encouraging, but far from a lock for Harris. In national polling, the Democrats were down 3 on the day before Biden stepped back, and Harris is now marginally ahead of Trump. This is the first time this year, the Democratic nominee was ahead. In 13 polls conducted since Biden dropped out, Harris has led 9.
More crucial of course are the swing states, where the latest data from the NY Times Siena has Harris up by 4 in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. In Arizona and Nevada, Trump’s lead is shrinking. Georgia’s dead even, and there are rumours that Florida and Ohio might be causing heartburn for the Trump campaign. Walz’ favourability is +11, compared to Vance -6. One has gone up, the other down. Harris enjoys better favourability than Trump.
This race is far from over, but the onus has shifted. Trump is struggling to prosecute a case against the former prosecutor Harris. And she is filling up party coffers and massive venues, while his donors are worried and his crowds seem sparser. Suddenly a race that nobody loved, is a race that nobody can turn away from.