At the time, I stated that “the prudent course of action is for another Liberal leader to rise from the impressive Liberal caucus”. 

Obviously, and regrettably, this did not happen. 

The opportunity for Justin to resign was last winter, and that window to give a new leader the opportunity to establish themselves with different policy and budgetary decisions is now past.

Since last October, various public opinion polls have been consistent with the Liberal Party behind the Conservatives between 14 and 20 percent, and now the NDP have walked away from a joint government agreement. Given the precarious situation for the Liberal Party, it is now virtually impossible to change leaders before the next election with any expectation of electoral success.

However reckless his policies and decisions have been, Justin will still likely get more hardcore Liberal votes in an election than some short-term replacement. The tragedy of Justin’s decision to stay on is that Pierre Poilievre is not popular nor embraced by Canadians; Poilievre is currently the least offensive option. 

The problem now for the Liberal party attempting to organize a snap Leadership Convention, is that the other parties may very well defeat you before you have elected a new leader. Certainly, any new leader would have an impossibly short window to introduce themselves to Canadians and explain what they would do differently. 

The more significant problem with a leadership convention is the rules under which it would be held. As noted by Justice Marie-Josée Hogue, Commissioner of the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions, “the eligibility criteria for voting in nomination contests do not seem very stringent, and the control measures in place do not seem very robust”. Similarly, the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) noted in its assessment of nomination rules, with members saying that they were “disturbed to learn how easily foreign actors take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities in political party governance and administration to support preferred candidates”. 

Since the Liberal party ended memberships in 2016, replacing them with unlimited “registered Liberals”, the contest becomes one of signing up delegates to vote. In the past, long-standing party members would have some awareness of the strongest candidates to serve but the new temporary transitional supporters are only interested in supporting their chosen candidate.

The crack in the foundation of our Canadian democracy, is that any hostile foreign government or domestic special interest group can sign up new voters and take over the party. This weakness in the rules of the Liberal Party of Canada needs to be corrected by the national liberal executive before we fall into another leadership convention. 

It was noted by Justice Hogue that an incident cited in the Commission’s report “makes clear the extent to which nomination contests can be gateways for foreign states who wish to interfere in our democratic processes”.

Whoever becomes the Prime Minister of Canada has mostly unfiltered power over the state, including the appointments and dismissals of the Chief of Defence Staff, the Commissioner of the RCMP, every deputy minister, and many other top decision makers. They also can appoint every member of the federal cabinet, whether or not they have been elected. In the wrong hands, this power is a disaster in the making.

Given this fatal flaw in the Liberal Party leadership rules, and the threat of foreign interference, Justin will now get his wish to lead the Liberal Party in the next federal election. 

Percy Downe is a longtime supporter of the Liberal Party, and is the former Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Jean Chrétien.