As I said to Steve on Twitter, he made some good points, missed some others that should be of at least equal concern but overall he took the tempting bait of mis-pronouncing the Liberal Party dead on arrival. What’s more surprising is who came along for the ride with him.

Again, this is hardly a new or unique assertion. And I certainly agree that by-election loses in ridings like St. Paul’s and Lasalle where the Party should but able to run a German Sheppard with a red bandana and win don’t bode well. But the ground between here and the next election – let alone the next decade – is hardly certain.

In 1984 after Brian Mulroney’s record win, the punditocracy pronounced the Party past its prime.

In 2011, the late Peter C. Newman wrote a whole book about how the world had moved on from the Liberal Party and was never coming back.

Maher acknowledges both of these erroneous predictions but insists that this time it’s different. That this time, the Liberal Party is really super duper dead. Fer realz, as the kids say.

 Sadly for Steve, I can all but guarantee he’s wrong.

First and foremost, like many who’ve never been part of a political party, Maher mistakes current views of a leader for the overall trajectory of the party. By that logic Stephen Harper in 2003 would never have become PM a short 3 years later. In the reverse, the John Turner of the mid-70s should have been the one setting records in 1984.

Events, dear boy, events.

More oddly, Maher clearly had a chat with our fellow Nova Scotian, and principal (or at least co-) author of Justin Trudeau’s winning campaigns. To be clear, “winning campaigns” here mean his leadership and the 2015 election. Subsequent elections he just lost be less than the other guy, who on one occasion was Andrew Scheer.

But I digress.

Butts told Maher “I think the Liberal brand nationwide is weaker today than it ever has been, and certainly in my lifetime.” He then goes on to refer to Mr. Trudeau’s team as “the A+ team” and then provincial Liberals as “the farm teams”.

I’ve got a number of issues with Mr. Butts assessments here.

First, notwithstanding the aforementioned disastrous periods in ’84 and ’11, if that’s what Gerry thinks, exactly who could possibly be more responsible for that sequence of events than, well, him? He and his university buddy have been in charge of the Party for 11 years. They oversaw the end of party memberships and replaced them with a sort of whoever shows up system. They ensured the Party was replaced with a vehicle entirely focused on Mr. Trudeau.

They also made choices about who they supported and worked with based on ideology rather than the sort of political partisanship they apparently now espouse.

For example, Christy Clark – despite decades of work for John Turner, Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin – wasn’t worthy of support but her NDP opponents John Horgan and Gregor Robinson were.

Similarly, Kathleen Wynne apparently merited almost no assistance in her last electoral outing despite the fact Mr. Butts came directly from the Liberal predecessor government to Ms Wynne, that of Dalton McGuinty.

Anyway, it’s an odd message. Or an odd messenger.

But more important is that I think he’s wrong.

Butts and Maher both have the idea that the supposed deaths of provincial (L)liberal parties are a) happening; b) related; c) Justin Trudeau’s fault and d) emblematic of some change in the fundamental nature of Canadians and their politics.

With respect, bullshit.

First, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec (with federal cabinet minister Pablo Rodrigues announcing he’s heading to lead the PLQ earlier this week) are all likely to have Liberal governments by the end of 2025.

In Ontario – apparently the only province that matters – Bonnie Crombie will almost certainly be leader of the Official Opposition after Doug Ford calls an election in Spring ’25 and premier 2-4 years hence.

The Prairies have been inhospitable to Liberals at all levels since, oh, 1965ish.

But even here Maher at least partially defeats his own argument. While history means that Wab Kinew and Naheed Nemshi are New Democrats, like Gary Doer, Roy Romanow and Rachel Notley before them I challenge anyone to explain how they governed any differently than a Liberal premier would have.

To me that is a feature not a bug. It speaks to the resoundingly liberal nature of Canadians, even in places where the brand doesn’t work.

Maher focuses on how polling – again a momentary event, not really a trend – suggests the left has moved to the NDP in many places across the country.

B.C., however, serves as the ultimate illustration of Maher’s wrongness.

This may well go down in Canadian history as the worst political blunder since Justin Trudeau took his Tickle Trunk to India. Rather than fighting out a three-way race Falcon surrendered. He’s conceded the field – only weeks before an election– to a two-party race.

This is truly bizarre. While the polling suggested an outright win was unlikely (although, again, this is more the fault of Mr. Falcon’s own poor campaigning than any grandiose change in thinking by the electorate), with the Federal Liberals generally polling in the mid-20s and the number of Canadians claiming to have no political home at almost 50%, creating two conservative parties and then just throwing in the towel on one is asinine at best.

As my friend Mark Marissen – a veteran of both Liberal and B.C. politics has said – it is a virtual certainty that there will be a B.C. Liberal Party in the next provincial election – one way or another.

Falcon could easily have gone back to some of Gordon Campbell/Christy Clark’s greatest hits – paying for general tax cuts with the increased revenue from the carbon tax, for example – but instead ran away. Dumb.

Look, I’m not saying the Liberal Party of Canada is in great shape and certain to win the next election – far from it.

But to attribute the ebb and flow of political fortunes to anything other than, well, that, is beneath the wisdom and experience of either Butts or Maher.

On the day after Michael Ignatieff returned the single worst result for the Liberal Party since confederation I renewed my (then lapsed) membership in the Liberal Party of Canada and donated the legal max.

Mulroney – who knew of what he spoke – once said that the problem with the Liberal Party was that just when you thought they were on the mat they got up and punched you in the face.

We might get there again. And if we do, we will come back.

Ding ding.

Jamie Carroll is a former National Director of the Liberal Party of Canada who now works as an entrepreneur and consultant.