The US economy is in pretty solid shape – growing at a healthy clip, low unemployment and inflation. But consumers don’t feel it. Only 28% think the country is going in the right direction. Joe Biden’s approval rating is 41%. Numbers like that normally lead to a change in which party occupies the White House.
But this is an anything but a normal time.
According to the aggregators at RealClearPolitics, Harris leads national polling by a slim 2.2%. On the same day in 2020, Biden had an 8.5% lead and went on to beat Trump. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led by 3.9% - and ended up losing to Trump. For Harris, a 2.2 point national lead is not a great number.
Trump has narrow leads in 3 of the important swing states (North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona) but in each case the margin is less than 1.6 points. Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, and in each case, the margin is less than is 1.2 points. Pennsylvania is a tie.
To cut to the chase, either outcome is roughly equally possible.
What will make the difference?
In US politics, it often comes down to money, which turns into spending on advertising and on the get out the vote (GOTV) ground game. According to Open Secrets, which collects data on campaigns fundraising, Harris and Trump are about even when it comes to financial support from super PAC’s, which is money raised outside the formal campaigns.
But in terms of money raised by the campaigns themselves, for every dollar Trump has raised, Harris has raised more than two. ($685 Million to $306 Million). In August alone, Harris raised $360 Million to Trump’s $130 Million. Harris/Walz have announced that they will have the largest ad buy in US history, more than $370 Million between Labour Day and Election Day. More than 50% of that money will go to digital advertising, the rest will be on TV. Trump will be significantly outgunned in terms of money spent on advertising.
On the GOTV ground game, Trump is trying something different, and - no surprise here - a bit controversial. First, instead of having the RNC run GOTV effort, he has outsourced much of that effort to outside super PACs such as Elon Musk’s, among others. That means instead of being asked to knock doors, local Republicans are being asked to monitor vote tallies on Election Day, and more of the door knocking is being done by paid canvassers working for private companies. Some Republicans are worried that this approach doesn’t take advantage of volunteer enthusiasm, and that Democrats already have a natural advantage in that respect, with a larger number of younger and organized labour supporters.
The second big difference in how Trump is approaching GOTV is that he is focusing on so-called “low-propensity” voters – people who are conservative-leaning, but tend not to get drawn towards politics, much and often don’t cast a ballot.
The pitch to these voters is often dialed in on specific issues that matter to them, moreso than alignment with a party or a candidate, and the effort is not only aimed at districts that regularly go Republican but also to left leaning cities as well. Many of the targets are younger first-time voters.
For her part, Harris has been somewhat handicapped by the fact that party enthusiasm was low while Biden was the nominee, and the volunteer infrastructure needed rapid expansion. According to Politico, the campaign opened 30 offices last month alone, and hired more than 400 workers. In Nevada alone, Harris has 142 workers on the payroll. Across the battleground states, Harris reportedly has 238 offices and 1750 paid personnel.
Trump’s overall message seems to be narrowing to “more money in your pocket, fewer illegal migrants in your country.” It’s simple and appeals to a lot of American voters.
Harris, in contrast, has relied largely on a positive, “move forward”, “turn the page on division” message coupled with promises to spend in ways that help people afford homes and open businesses. As we enter the last month, the Harris campaign is making it clear that they will ramp up more aggressive attacks on Trump, sensing that their momentum may have stalled, and that undecided voters need to be reminded of the reasons not to put Trump back in the White House.
There really is no telling how this will turn out.
Strategies will be crucial. Execution will be no less crucial. Voters in the other 43 states will watch with mounting anxiety what’s happening in the 7 battlegrounds. Polls will be plentiful (and so will the skepticism about their reliability).
Meanwhile, people around the world, perhaps in Canada more than anywhere, will hold their breath as about half a million Americans come to a final choice that will set a course that will affect everyone else.