The Prime Minister does not have time to waste to make a momentous decision that could have profound consequences for national unity, and even some consequences internationally. There are obviously partisan consequences as well for the Liberal Party.
In normal circumstances, one could argue that the record of the Trudeau government, regardless of all its accumulated faults over nine years, deserves re-election. But these are not normal circumstances. The most powerful force in democratic politics is “time for a change.” Over the years, time for a change after around ten years in power has taken down Charles de Gaulle in France, Margaret Thatcher in the UK, Pierre-Elliott Trudeau in Canada as well as Stephen Harper and others. Similarly, time for a change has hit Justin Trudeau, and much as he has tried, a majority of Canadians have decided that they want a Prime Minister who is not Justin Trudeau, but they might not necessarily choose Pierre Poilievre if they were to have a different alternative.
Trudeau could decide to fight the next election, lose, and like the old Roman general, be carried out on his shield. But there is a risk of serious and potentially even fatal consequences for Canada of a decision by Mr. Trudeau to go out on his shield
The question for the Prime Minister is whether he is more valuable leading the Liberal Party to an almost certain defeat or whether he should do all he can to be in a strong position to be available to take a leading role in speaking up for Canada in a possible Quebec independence referendum. Canada is facing the prospect of a Parti Quebecois government in the next two years with a promise to hold a referendum on independence for Quebec. It is hard to imagine that Pierre Poilievre as a non-Quebecer would have the credibility to lead the federalist forces in the province. Nor are there a lot of credible federalist spokespersons in Quebec today who could influence a referendum result. A Justin Trudeau who had been ignominiously defeated would have no influence.
Consider the role a Justin Trudeau, who had retired undefeated after more than nine years leading a government, could play in Quebec defending Canadian unity. This Justin Trudeau would have a positive legacy that would be remembered and respected. As people reflect on his accomplishments, he would have a standing in public opinion that would make him a formidable force in explaining to Quebecers the benefits of being part of Canada. An undefeated Justin Trudeau could very well be the difference between saving Canada and seeing the breakup of it. This is a most powerful reason for Mr. Trudeau to retire now before it is too late.
Second, we are living at a dangerous time internationally. A defeated Justin Trudeau would have no more credibility internationally than he would domestically. But a Justin Trudeau who had retired undefeated after nine years of leading a progressive government in Canada could have an impact for good internationally at a time when there are not enough credible progressive voices. This is another important reason for him to decide to retire now.
Third, in a simply partisan sense, he has a responsibility to the Liberal Party not to lead it into a disastrous defeat from which recovery, if possible, would be long, painful, and difficult.
Some may say that this is unrealistic because there is no time left for a Liberal leadership convention which normally would take several months to organize. Therefore, an imaginative approach is needed. There is a bold innovative way which could allow for a new Liberal leader and Prime Minister to be chosen within weeks.
Mr. Trudeau could announce that he would retire within two or three weeks. The Liberal Party could hold an immediate town hall to showcase several candidates to Canadians and to the Party. The Liberal caucus would then choose an interim leader, who, according to constitutional practice, would immediately be sworn in as Prime Minister. The Liberal Party Executive could then announce that given parliamentary uncertainty today, a leadership convention would not be held until after the next election. If the new Prime Minister wins the election, the convention would be a formality. If he or she loses, there could be a real contest.
A new Prime Minister in the next few weeks would have time to form a new Cabinet, announce his or her own agenda, and be ready to call an election where Canadians who want neither Trudeau nor Poilievre would have a real choice. It would be a whole new ball game and the result would be far from a foregone conclusion.
Eddie Goldenberg, C.M.
(Former Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Jean Chretien and Senior Advisor, Global Public Affairs)