The time to the US election can be counted in days and hours now. Billions of dollars have been spent by the Harris and Trump campaigns. The outcome is uncertain.
Polls continue to resist the hopes of many that a breakout will occur, that one of the candidates will see a surge in support, based on an ad, a promise, an endorsement, a rally with a cultural icon, a town hall, an interview with a podcasting giant.
Nothing, so far, has produced such a signal.
Here’s what an avalanche of polls tell us about the 7 swing states. Harris leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada – but in each case by just a single point. Trump leads in North Carolina and Georgia by a single point, and Arizona by two.
None of these margins is large enough to come close to predicting who will carry these crucial states. The answer will lie in who votes - and who doesn’t - before polls close on November 5th.
While it’s impossible to predict, it’s not like there is no useful information to help form an educated guess about what might happen. Here’s what I’m watching.
Just over 36 million votes have been cast so far, including 10 million in the swing states. While we don’t know who those people voted for, we know the proportion of women was 55% and men 45%. And that gap was wider than average in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
That margin alone isn’t enough to give much confidence to those who want to see America elect Kamala Harris. In 2016 women accounted for 54% of all votes cast and 54% of all advance votes cast. In 2020, women accounted for 53% of all votes and 57% of the early votes.
If Harris wins, chances are it will be about how many women turn out. In polls in Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, Harris has massive leads among women, including a 14-point lead in Pennsylvania and a 17-point lead in Michigan.
Trump has a clear advantage among men, and in particular men who have no college education.
If both campaigns mobilized their vote equally effectively, it could result in a dead heat. If she turns out more of her vote, than Trump does his, she’ll win.
Here is (with some trepidation) why I think Harris has an advantage.
My read of all the polls tells me that there are three issues that matter: immigration, abortion and the cost of living. Republicans have an advantage on the first (unearned, but that’s for another day). The economy tends to be closer to a draw, but with a slight advantage for Trump, in part because incumbency is a burden in these times.
That leaves abortion, the only issue that has been showing a significant rise in importance. More voters say it will matter to them, and women are leading the way.
In some polls, abortion has surpassed immigration as a top issue. It’s not hard to see why. I can’t recall a Presidential nominee who was more threatening to the reproductive rights of women.
Last month, Trump tried to defuse his vulnerability. "You will be protected, and I will be your protector," he told women voters at a rally in Pennsylvania. "Women will be happy, healthy, confident, and free. You will no longer be thinking about abortion." Hard to imagine that quelled many fears.
Enter Michelle Obama this weekend. Her remarks were fiery and potent. Her message was less about the peril of Trump, more a blistering call on American men to consider their duty towards their mothers, daughters, sisters, partners and wives.
Yes, she acknowledged, some men feel rage at the sense of being left behind. But she went on to say “I’m asking y’all, take our lives seriously….if we don’t get this election right, your wife, your daughter, your mother….we as women will become collateral damage to your rage…so are you as men prepared to look into the eyes of the women and children you love and tell them you supported this assault on our safety?”
In the final ten days, Trump will almost certainly try to drive turnout by ramping up even more demeaning and divisive language about immigrants. But he may have won all the votes he can on this issue. Both candidates will make appeals on economic and cost of living issues, with fairly similar levels of success, if past is any guide.
The X factor, in the end….(and it was a determining factor in several mid-term elections), could turn out to be the motivation of women to vote to reclaim their rights. Trump’s credibility as a defender of women is laughable. And that many Republicans want to further erode women’s rights could hardly be more clear.