“Politics,” former Prime Minister Lester Pearson once observed, “is the skilled use of blunt objects.” Ignoring his advice, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has parted ways with her fellow federal and provincial leaders and embarked on a solo diplomatic mission to persuade President Donald Trump to abandon his threatened 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods, including Alberta’s energy exports. News that Trump would hold off on any action pending a review of Canadian trade practices, which is due on April 1, brought praise in some quarters for Smith’s efforts. But hope quickly faded when Trump declared that he might make good on his threat by February 1.
Smith has blamed lame-duck Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for all of Canada’s problems with the Trump administration while avoiding any criticism of the president. In the absence of strong federal leadership, she says it is up to the premiers to take the lead in making Canada’s case to US decision-makers. But she has rejected a “Team Canada” approach that would involve retaliatory measures, and predicted a national unity crisis if oil and gas were included. Smith’s stand has also put the premier at odds with federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has said Canada would have to respond if Trump’s tariff were enacted.
Smith has met with Trump at his Mara Largo club and appeared on conservative US media outlets, where she made the case for stronger Canada-US trade ties and warned of the harm tariffs would bring to Americans. While she called her meeting with Trump “constructive,” she saw no sign that he was prepared to change his mind. Smith also hobnobbed with members of Trump’s new Cabinet, legislators, business leaders and Trump influencers at the president’s inaugural festivities, but those overtures have yet to produce positive results.
Smith continues to oppose retaliatory tariffs, preferring to work with Trump’s administration “in good faith towards shared priorities,” including ways of increasing trade to achieve “a win-win for both countries.” She has proposed that Americans buy more oil, timber and agricultural products from Canada, and that Canadians buy more US gas turbines, military equipment and computer hardware for Canada’s AI sector. She has also called for tighter Canadian immigration laws, increased federal-provincial border policing measures, higher defence spending, and revival of the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipeline projects to expand access to foreign and domestic markets.
Ottawa is already implementing plans to upgrade border security in response to Trump’s complaint that it allows “vast numbers” of illegal migrants and “massive” amounts of fentanyl to enter the United States. Less than 200,000 illegal entrants and under 20 kilograms of fentanyl were intercepted at the border by US agents last year. (Ironically, the largest border drug bust in recent months involved the seizure by Canadian authorities of 475 kilograms of cocaine headed for Canada from Mexico via the United States.)
While such measures as improved border security and accelerated defence spending are clearly in Canada’s interest, putting more in the window without knowing what Trump’s real bottom line is may simply result in further demands. As Trump himself has put it, “If you fold, it causes you much more trouble than it’s worth.” In fact, he has since charged that the United States subsidizes Canada at a rate of more than $100 billion a year, which misrepresents Canada’s current trade surplus arising from increased energy imports.
Trump’s latest claim that the United States does not need Canada’s oil and gas, autos, dairy products and lumber, is a step away from proclaiming US independence from Canada, and a challenge to Smith’s push for stronger ties. But unraveling the world’s largest trade relationship would be easier said than done, as Trump undoubtedly knows. Still, his threats are a timely reminder that Canada needs to diversify its trade to lessen dependence on the United States, and reduce interprovincial barriers that impede the flow of goods and services at home.
Smith deserves credit for attempting to raise American awareness of Canada’s importance to the United States. But Trump is a big fan of tariffs. The federal and provincial governments need to present a united front and be ready to respond with appropriate measures if his tariff threat materializes. Blandishments and persuasion are unlikely to work unless they are backed by blunt objects, deftly deployed.
Donald Barry is a professor emeritus of political science at the university of Calgary.