Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, we’re meeting with a lot of clients across the country, every sector, and so far, we’re seeing three distinct approaches to how businesses are reacting to these looming waves.

Two approaches will help their businesses weather the damaging impacts of tariffs. Some are taking the opportunity to use the kinetic energy from the choppy waters and others are looking for ways to buttress their business against the rising tide. The third option is the classic wait and see.

First are the surfers. These businesses are looking to offset the risk with another market or customer. They are not making wholesale change and abandoning the US market completely, nor are they risking the contracts or relationships they have there. But they are seeking, creating, new opportunities to minimize their risk, giving themselves options even if they aren’t fully developed. But their plan Bs, and Cs, are underway, and the runway to getting up to speed is short if they need to pivot. Their plan is to move out of harm’s way quickly and smoothly.

Next are the divers. These businesses that are focused on the state of their US supplier or buyer, both in terms of contract and relationship. They are completely focused on deepening the relationships they have, finding common ground with their buyers and sellers, who are increasingly as concerned as they are. Working together, they may be exploring joint efforts to circumvent the tariff threat. Their plan is to weather the storm by going below the surface where the waters are calmer.

Finally, those watching intently from the beach. These businesses are not really sure what to do, and they don’t feel like there’s enough clarity on what could happen, when, and what the impacts would be for them. They are actively gathering all the information they can, but given how differently the issue is treated from various sources, they feel unable to make an evidence-based decision. They need more certainty before committing to action.

All of these groups are thinking about getting to the “other side” of the tariffs. However, the size and depth of the shock of the US threats, and the fundamental shift in our trade and geopolitical relationship that is happening right now, means there’s no going back to the comfort and ease and what came before. Whether these waves ever hit our coasts, our economic landscape will never be the same.

Smart businesses are building for a future where we are less dependent on the US. Moreover, an inability to move, strategically and quickly, towards a redefined Canadian economy is a liability for any business, and for our country.

Our advice to our clients at this point in time is to shift their thinking from “what do I have to do to get through this” to “what do I have to do to adapt to a new reality.” In light of a more long-term, permanent change, surfers can travel farther and harness the power of the change, taking them to new, more welcoming coasts. Divers may survive the waves, but they will be in the same spot after they pass, and that landscape is unlikely to offer the same advantages it once did, or the coast may be farther away than before. Finally, waiting until the waves hit is not a plan, and it puts these businesses at serious risk.

Being an entrepreneur is a tough job on the best days, and these tariff threats don’t help. But small business leaders have unique skills, a relentless grit and ability to pivot that non-entrepreneurs don’t typically have. We been through a world war, the gas crisis, the tech crash, the great recession, the pandemic and now this.

We’ve helped hundreds of thousands of businesses survive these crises, and they’ll survive this one too. But the common denominator to success is having a plan and knowing when to move. It’s time to get surfing.

Pierre Cléroux is the Chief Economist, Business Development Bank of Canada