Trump’s tariff blitzkrieg has destroyed the status quo and is forcing Canadians to make tough choices: do nothing, hit back, or move further into America’s orbit. Right now, most Canadians are either in denial that times have changed or seeking revenge. But denial and revenge are terrible foundations on which to base critical, even existential, policy decisions. Before we choose between these three options, we need to regain our composure and better understand how we got here and what’s at stake.
To begin our reorientation, we need to remove ourselves from the centre of the story and try to see the world through Trump’s eyes. Errol Morris’ excellent documentary the Fog of War about former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara provides an excellent starting point. McNamara’s top lesson for policymakers faced with conflict is to “empathize with your enemy”.
Following this advice, we first need to admit Trump is a very skilled politician. He may be a convicted criminal and a liar, but he has come from the outside to take over the Republican Party twice and won two free and fair US presidential elections in the world’s oldest modern democracy. These are not the accomplishments of a stupid person.
Second, Trump is transactional in his relationships. He views his agreements or disputes as one-off events, rather than a series of linked interactions. “What have you done for me today?” he asks people and countries without feeling he owes others or needs to keep promises. With this disposition, he is unlikely to hold onto grudges for too long unless they cut too deep and will likely reward those who help him.
Third, Trump’s goal is to Make America Great Again for his main voter base: white (and increasingly Hispanic) blue-collar males raised in a masculine culture. These voters have lost the most through free trade, foreign wars, environmental regulations, and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion policies. MAGA voters are angry their living standards are declining while their governments send billions of their tax dollars and hundreds of thousands of troops abroad. Trump seeks to deliver for his base by using high tariffs to rebuild domestic manufacturing. It might work, it might not, but he is going to continue with the core ambition of his MAGA strategy.
Fourth, Donald Trump believes the US is the greatest country in history. As such, he also believes it is a privilege to partner with them. When he says Canada is a “serious contender to become the 51st state”, it is unlikely to be a precursor to invasion, but rather a backhanded offer to join them on their new isolationist journey. Viewed in this light “51st state” is just shorthand for “if Canada gets on board with what we are doing we will drop tariffs.” But to get on board, we will probably need to adopt at least some MAGA policies and become even more integrated with the US economy. This could include, for example, matching US tariffs on Asian and European imports.
In terms of our own position, Trump’s tariffs were not designed to directly hurt Canada. We are just the collateral damage of the massive US economic policy change on which Trump campaigned. Trump does not lay awake at night thinking about how he can punish Canada because he really does not think about us much at all. We are the (very) junior partner in this relationship, with a Gross Domestic Product of $2.1 trillion compared to the $27 trillion economy of the United States, and our economy is the size it is mainly because of our proximity to the United States and their willingness to work with us. We must realize they can crush our economy if they really want to.
Canada’s future is going to be very different, and we will soon need to choose between standing still, fighting, or working with Trump’s MAGA America. To weather this change, we need new subsidies to immediately soften the inevitable blow for families and businesses. We also need to think hard about kneejerk reciprocal tariffs and cutting off energy as these actions might take the option of working with the US off the table before we even chew on it. Most of all, we need to understand how each of these three options will help our economy survive and thrive and make rational decisions based on facts not emotion.
Dr. Kennedy Stewart (BA Acadia, MA SFU, PhD LSE) is an associate professor at the SFU School of Public Policy. He is a former Member of Parliament (2011-2018) and Mayor of Vancouver (2018-2022).