Election Watchers Take on Federal Campaign (Wave 3)
Bruce Anderson
spark*insights
April 14, 2025
86% of our watchers expect a Liberal victory, compared to 76% last week.
Most continue to see Liberals having the most momentum (89%), best candidates (82%) most effective leader (77%) and most impactful message (70%). Responses are a bit tighter on best ads, and Conservatives continue to be seen as having the best events.
By wide margins Mark Carney is seen as more reassuring, likeable, knowledgeable and genuine than Pierre Poilievre. Carney also has an edge in being “more inspiring, although the numbers are closer. Most expect Poilievre to do best in the leaders debates.
Most think Carney has the best ideas for how to deal with Trump and build a resilient economy.
Two out of three think the polls are accurate but a third think Conservative support is stronger than the polls suggest.
Opinion is evenly divided on the question of which party has the best approach to projects and resources development.