Election Watchers Take on Federal Campaign (Wave 5)
Bruce Anderson
spark*insights
April 28, 2025
Four out of five watchers think the Liberals will win today’s election, and two thirds think it will be a majority victory for Mark Carney. The average guess at the number of seats the Liberals will win is 178 to 129 for the Conservatives. Few thought the platforms would have a major impact on the outcome.
The majority continued to feel that Carney was in a stronger position than Poilievre when it came to economic ideas, dealing with Trump. Two thirds believe he would be a better and more unifying Prime Minister. Poilievre was judged better in both debates, by a plurality.
If the Liberals do go on to a win today, our Campaign watchers say they main reasons will be a choice between who is best to deal with the US, the collapse of the NDP vote, and Poilievre seeming too similar to Trump’s populism. Most felt that Carney being fresh and different from Justin Trudeau also played an important role.
