Ottawa-Canadian grain growers have been under financial pressure since the start of Covid and now must cope with President Trump’s trade tactics, says a brief done for the Lawrence National Centre at the Ivey Business School.

Ramsey Andary, the brief’s author, said grain and oilseed farming is one of Canada’s most productive and globally competitive sectors. Yet, even before the resurgence of U.S. protectionism, producers were under pressure from soaring input costs, falling commodity prices and the lingering effects of pandemic-related disruptions.

“The proposed Trump-era tariffs risk compounding these challenges, driving up machinery and input costs while impeding vital export markets. For many farmers, this dual blow could significantly erode profitability and long-term viability.”

The strategic importance of Canada’s grain and oilseed sector cannot be overstated, Andary said. It underpins national food security, supports rural economies and helps feed global populations, especially in regions dependent on reliable agricultural imports. As a leading supplier of wheat, canola, barley, pulses, and other crops, Canada plays a central role in stabilizing international markets.

But Canada’s position as a leading exporter is becoming increasingly precarious as it is caught between two economic superpowers whose trade agendas are often

driven by strategic rivalry. The U.S., Canada’s largest trade partner and closest economic ally, is increasingly unpredictable in its use of tariffs and domestic-first policy. Meanwhile, China leverages agri-food trade as a diplomatic tool, imposing sudden barriers that disrupt billions in exports.

To maintain this position amid geopolitical and economic headwinds, policy responses must be swift and strategic as illustrated in the brief’s proposed three-pronged strategy.

First, Canada must intensify diplomatic engagement with the U.S. to avert costly trade wars, leveraging shared supply chains and industry ties. At the same time, it should also pursue a minimal escalation strategy with China to ensure access to this important market for its crop sector.

Second, Canada must accelerate trade diversification to reduce over-reliance on any single partner, while navigating the complexity of establishing new market footholds. “Doing so will require targeted investment, coordinated trade promotion, and strong partnerships with emerging markets to ensure lasting gains.

Third, and most critically, it must treat long-term competitiveness as a nation-building imperative. This requires eliminating interprovincial trade barriers, fast-tracking investment in rural infrastructure and digital connectivity and modernizing supports that enable innovation and workforce development, Andary said.

“With coordinated action, Canada can empower its farmers today while laying the foundation for a resilient, innovative, and globally leading crop industry. Canada’s continual alignment with U.S. foreign policy on China has yielded few tangible benefits, while exposing the crop sector to significant economic fallout. With retaliatory Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and related products, Canadian agriculture is now caught in the geopolitical crossfire between two global superpowers.”

While trade diversification remains essential to mitigating geopolitical risk, it is a complex and gradual process. Efforts must go beyond signing agreements and include targeted export benchmarking, marketing support, and reduction of non-tariff barriers to enable deeper market penetration in the Indo-Pacific, EU, and Middle East.

The agriculture workforce needs to be modernized through expanded agricultural technology training, improved succession planning and targeted immigration pathways are key to supporting innovation and ensure future resilience in the sector.

This news report prepared for National Newswatch