Those elsewhere in Canada inclined to draw national-unity conclusions from the PQ’s rise will find reassurance in federal numbers. Since Mark Carney became Prime Minister last March, the federal Liberal brand has proven stronger and more resilient than that of any other party, federal or provincial, with the latest Léger poll putting Liberal support at 38% and the Prime Minister’s approval rating at 45%. Even among Bloc Québécois supporters, 33% approve of Carney’s performance.

That strength endures despite recent moves that may, at first glance, seem out of step with Québec’s prevailing political consensus. The shelving of Canada’s digital services tax on foreign tech companies, the rollback of Trudeau-era environmental measures (most notably the consumer carbon price and the EV mandate), Carney’s openness to new pipelines and the announcement of an austerity budget would, in other times, have spelled trouble in Québec. So too would the federal government’s legal submission to the Supreme Court challenging the preemptive use of the notwithstanding clause, a move that has drawn ire from five provincial premiers.

But in politics, context and timing are everything.

Quebecers are currently preoccupied with bread-and-butter issues: the rising cost of living, housing, service delivery, the economy, and managing Canada–U.S. relations. On those fronts, recent polls indicate voters see Carney as the right person for the moment and want him to stay the course.

Pragmatic rather than doctrinaire, many Quebecers recognize that a consumer carbon price, though effective, had become politically toxic in the rest of Canada. They are willing to entertain the notion that shelving the digital tax reflects a longer-term strategy to stabilize relations with the Trump administration. Although pipelines remain unpopular, there is a growing constituency in the province that acknowledges the importance of reducing Canada’s dependence on the U.S. energy market. And while austerity is a loaded word in a province that has, in many ways, defined itself by its robust social safety net, voters are taking a wait-and-see approach to whatever Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne proposes before passing judgment.

As for the federal government’s move on the notwithstanding clause, the federal Liberal position is not new and has long been absorbed into the province’s public opinion. There are also clear signs of voter fatigue with the brand of identity politics that has come to define Legault’s nearly decade-long tenure. Years of simmering discontent over health and education service delivery, combined with a string of high-profile missteps, from the SAAQclic fiasco to the Northvolt controversy, have eroded trust in the Premier’s ability to govern. In that context, Carney projects a no-nonsense, economically focused, results-driven style of governance that many Quebecers appear ready to embrace.

Perhaps most advantageous for the federal Liberals is that Quebecers remain acutely aware of the alternative: Pierre Poilievre. His truculent style runs counter to Québec’s political temperament. And it is too late for him to recast himself. As long as Poilievre remains prime minister-in-waiting, Carney enjoys a built-in advantage in the province.

All of this explains why many Quebecers are, for now, willing to give Carney a pass on those early decisions.

Yet, challenges loom. The Bloc Québécois has already signalled its intention to oppose the upcoming federal budget, with leader Yves-François Blanchet betting on a Carney misstep born of unfamiliarity with Québec’s political rhythms. Blanchet would also be keen to return to the polls sooner rather than later. The longer he waits, the more the Bloc risks being tied to the PQ’s unpopular referendum timetable, an issue likely to dominate Québec’s political oxygen in 2026. Blanchet knows that party loyalty here is fleeting. Québec voters are notoriously volatile and capable of dramatic swings.

With polling in Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada pointing to majority territory, Carney and his inner circle must ensure Québec remains firmly onside. 

That begins with the basics: language. Between now and the next campaign, improving Carney’s fluency in French must be a top priority. Quebecers will expect it, and will reward visible effort with goodwill from across the ideological spectrum. Conversely, if he is perceived to be uninterested in Québec’s language and distinct identity, he may find that indifference returned on election day.

At the Canada–U.S. negotiating table, Québec voters won’t keep overlooking concessions unless they start seeing real results such as tariff relief for the aluminum, steel, and lumber industries, and a stabilized trade framework that safeguards the core interests Carney pledged to protect on the campaign trail: supply management, language, and culture.

On policy, the cultural and environmental files will require a delicate touch. While polling suggests they are not top of mind for voters right now, both are laden with political landmines. They also directly involve one of Carney’s star Quebec ministers: Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture.

While Carney has promised that austerity is on the budgetary horizon, his Québec advisors understand that slashing arts and cultural funding would amount to political malpractice. Stephen Harper learned that lesson the hard way in 2008. His Conservatives never recovered in Québec after wielding the austerity axe against cultural programs.

The digital policy file will be far trickier. The Online Streaming Act and Online News Act, both major irritants in Washington, may need to be recalibrated or even revisited. While Carney has pledged that culture would be off the table in negotiations, it’s unclear whether that assurance extends to the Trudeau-era digital policy legacy.

In the grand scheme, Quebecers are likely to give him some leeway to make tough decisions in the national interest. But if adjustments to Canada’s digital framework are on the table, Carney will need to carefully manage the political exposure of Guilbeault, who also serves as his Québec lieutenant. At a minimum, any policy shifts must be paired with tangible steps toward fulfilling Carney’s campaign promise to strengthen CBC/Radio-Canada’s role in supporting local news and Québec’s unique culture and identity. Even that, however, won’t be enough unless Carney is prepared to articulate a clear, long-term vision for the interplay between Canada’s digital landscape and cultural policy. Otherwise, he risks creating the impression that Ottawa is taking dictation from the White House.

On climate, Carney’s international credentials as a low-carbon transition advocate align naturally with Québec’s political consensus. But as a politician in the province, his environmental credibility will depend on keeping Guilbeault close. As long as the Québec lieutenant and Équiterre founder remains in the fold, progressive voters in the province will likely accept that global realities demand pragmatic choices on climate policy.

Guilbeault is not the leftist bogeyman that many outside Québec have made him out to be. His record in cabinet shows he understands the federal government’s need to balance economic priorities, national unity, and long-term environmental commitments. His approval of the controversial Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Newfoundland and Labrador, while serving as Environment Minister, is proof enough.

Still, a federal endorsement of Alberta’s proposed oil pipeline through the fragile Pacific Northwest ecosystem, over the objections of British Columbia and Coastal First Nations, could prove a breaking point for Guilbeault and for progressive Québec voters alike. On climate, Guilbeault is both canary in the coal mine and elephant in the room: the first sign of danger, and the potential source of rupture the Bloc is quietly hoping for.

Eric-Antoine Ménard is Vice-President at NorthStar Public Affairs and head of its operations in Québec