FCC originally projected crop export pace and cost management would be key to profitability this year. Since then fertilizer costs have become an even bigger factor amid the Middle East turmoil.

“Many Canadian crops are expected to face tight margins in 2026 and rising fertilizer prices are adding pressure just as plans are finalized.”

Crop rotation usually guides planting decisions and most years farmers make only small changes. This year higher fertilizer prices could shift acres toward lower input crops, reduce fertilizer use or even take some marginal land out of production, FCC said.

Statistics Canada’s 2026 Field Crop Survey found Canadian farmers planned to seed more canola, corn, barley, flax, and soybeans while acres of wheat, oats, lentils, and peas would decline.

While historically acreage shifts among major field crops have been limited, FCC projects that up to 5.5 million acres or 7.3 per cent of total principal field crop acres could still shift from preliminary intentions.

Under current market conditions, some acres may move toward lower input or more favorable margin crops, including high nitrogen crops such as corn toward alternatives like soybeans.

Statistics Canada had projected soybean and corn acreage to both increase by nearly 2 per cent from last year. Corn acreage could be lower as producers shift to soybeans that require less nitrogen fertilizer.

Producers in eastern Canada are more exposed to fertilizer price shocks at planting due to less pre-buying earlier in the season. The soybean-to-corn futures price ratio continues to favour soybeans, reinforcing incentives for additional acreage gains this year.

Corn acreage in Canada has historically shown limited flexibility, with swing potential of only about 2.3 per cent because much of the corn crop is tied directly to inelastic local livestock demand.

Statistics Canada estimated 2026 canola acreage at 21.8 million acres, about 1 per cent higher than 2025. Despite expectations for large ending stocks, several factors continue to support canola plantings.

China’s lowering of canola tariffs has improved market access and boosted producer confidence while expanding domestic crush capacity should help absorb additional supply.

As seeding decisions are finalized, canola acreage could move above 22 million acres, with a reasonable range of 22 to 22.5 million.

Shifts in other crops are also possible.

Lentil and durum acres are under pressure due to ample supplies and weaker prices. However, both crops require less fertilizer than many alternatives, which may limit acreage declines and keep plantings closer to recent levels.

Pea acres are more uncertain. Large ending stocks of peas are a headwind, but they remain worth watching given the removal of tariffs for the Chinese market, high nitrogen prices and burdensome lentil and durum supplies. Peas are often included in rotations not just for current returns, but for the benefits they provide to profitability in the following year.

Oats and barley remain key wildcards. Oats are relatively cheap to grow, which could support acres, but current low prices are a challenge. Barley acres have also trended down longer term, but lower fertilizer needs and a growing cattle herd could support more barley acres in 2026, particularly on marginal land or for silage.

As of Jan. 1, beef replacement heifers were up 4.8 per cent from last year, signaling that producers are making longer-term investments to rebuild their herds. This supports expectations for continued herd growth and hay land acres could follow that same trend.

Much of the hay land converted to cropland over the past several decades tended to be marginal land. With cattle prices strong and producers increasingly focused on rebuilding their herds, some of that land could shift back into hay production. If the rebuilding trend continues, past relationships between herd size and hay acres suggest up to 650,000 acres could move into hay, although greater use of corn and barley silage may limit the scale of that shift.

Decisions to leave land unseeded typically depend on factors such as soil moisture, crop prices and spring weather conditions. With higher fertilizer costs and tighter projected farm margins, unseeded acreage is a key area to watch this year.

Historically, unseeded acreage has shown significant variability, sometimes changing by as much as 25 per cent, most often due to crops unable to be planted caused by excessive moisture. Based on that historical range, unseeded acreage could increase by as much as 280,000 acres this year to 1.4 million acres, particularly if producers choose to take marginal land out of production.

This news report prepared for National Newswatch