For example, the province’s auditor general reported last fall that the provincial government was significantly missing its space-creation targets. News reports, data and municipal government reports from all across Ontario consistently pointed to declining child-care access, deteriorating quality, persistent shortages and massive wait lists. And according to Statistics Canada, among Ontario families using child care, 52.4 per cent had difficulty finding it, up from 40.5 per cent in 2022 and from 36.5 per cent in 2019.

Now, halfway through 2026, we have even more data and evidence that expanded government control of child care has negatively impacted families, child-care providers and taxpayers.

For example, the City of Toronto reports that the number of licensed centre-based child-care spaces grew from 78,576 in March 2022—when the Ontario and federal governments signed the CWELCC agreement—to only 85,216 in March 2026. This equates to a compound growth rate of only 2.0 per cent per year, despite a massive inflow of government spending and despite the fact that the child-care sector should have picked up rapidly from lower levels during the pandemic.

Compare this measly 2.0 per cent growth rate to a compound growth rate of 5.1 per cent per year from March 2016 to March 2020, before the pandemic hit. Some simple math: if licensed child-care spaces grew at a 5.1 per cent compound annual growth rate since CWELCC was implemented instead of 2.0 per cent, Toronto would have approximately 10,500 more child-care spaces today.

“We continually hear from operators how difficult it is to open in Toronto, how Toronto does not support the private sector or welcome private centres,” said the Association of Canadian Early Learning Programs (a major child-care industry association). “This is the result for parents when politics comes before people and children.”

Indeed, through CWELCC, the federal government has tried to limit private for-profit child-care supply, which has reduced access and harmed families and child-care operators across Ontario.

In addition to Toronto, data and reports from other regions point to significant child-care shortages. According to the Halton Region’s child-care plan, “many CWELCC child care programs have long waitlists, especially in fast growing neighbourhoods” and operators have been subject to increased administrative burdens since CWELCC was implemented.

Moreover, according to a 2026 first quarter report by the District of Thunder Bay, the region has a child-care waitlist of more than 3,500 children, not including school-age kids—but only 121 children were placed that quarter. At this pace, it would take more than seven years to work through the wait list of 3,500, and by that time all those children would be in school.

Another example. A Hamilton-area MPP recently proclaimed it was a “great day for families” because a local facility opened with 54 new child-care spaces. However, the City of Hamilton reported last year that its wait list was more than one thousand times that—54,366. The true number is actually lower, since the 54,366 count includes duplicates for children enrolled on multiple wait lists, but it’s not a good sign that families are so desperate they enroll on multiple lists.

Given that child-care shortages got worse after the significant increase in government spending and control, as the data and evidence continue to clearly show, more government spending and control cannot be the solution. A freer market that does not impede supply (i.e. child-care spaces) and leaves choice in the hands of parents—not politicians—is the answer to Ontario’s child-care woes.

Matthew Lau is an adjunct scholar at the Fraser Institute. 

The views expressed are those of the author(s). National Newswatch Inc. publishes a range of perspectives and does not necessarily endorse the opinions presented.