“Pray don’t find fault with the man that limps,

Or stumbles along the road.

Unless you have worn the moccasins he wears,

Or stumbled beneath the same load.”

Putting yourself in the shoes of the officials negotiating the future of the Canada/US trade relationship is a worthwhile thought experiment. So let’s wear Mark Carney’s well-buffed oxfords for a moment. Or Dominic Leblanc’s footwear. Or Janice Charette’s.

The Prime Minister and his team both answer to and represent a public that remains bitterly angry with the administration in Washington, and, by extension, America itself. I for one question whether, even if Canada’s premiers were to re-stock the shelves of their alcohol monopolies with American alcohol, Canadians would return to buying any of it.

The Canadian fury is perhaps a bit inchoate, and impenetrable, and feeds on the insults tossed northward regularly from Washington. It’s understandable.  But it also creates a difficult environment for sensitive trade negotiations. The anger at times gives way to optimistic notions about turning completely away from the American market and deepening other trade relationships overseas. 

To be clear: Trade diversification is a smart strategy. And global markets do make sense to many Canadian businesses. But the gravitational reality of the US market is undeniable. Canada simply cannot turn away. 

For every hundred dollars of Canadian exports, about $73 goes to the U.S., $23 to Europe and Asia combined, and four dollars or so to Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.

That, as Prime Minister Carney would say, is the world as it is. The American market is a mountainous fact. There’s no way around it. 

Meanwhile, and it pains me to say this but I assure you it is entirely true, the American public remains pretty much oblivious to attitudes in Canada and negotiations with Canada and the rest of it. Yes, the Trump tariffs have made life more expensive for American businesses, and American consumers. Do they think about that causality? Not really. And among those who do, polls suggest many voters support tariffs nonetheless.

That’s the unpleasant position of the Canadian negotiating team as it heads to the latest August deadline. They are advocating on behalf of a Canadian public that is so angry it’s engaging in magical thinking, and dealing with an American public that either doesn’t care, or doesn’t notice. 

I’ve written recently that Canada cannot afford to signal that it is willing to absorb limitless pain without retaliation…that it must be convincingly ready to use its trade and non-trade leverage. 

Si vis pacem, para bellum.  If you want peace, prepare for war.

I continue to believe that is true. There is no question about it, in my view.

But there’s something more. Canadians must take the time to understand the forces their government and business sector are dealing with: The public should be making up its mind based on facts where possible, rather than emotions. The stakes are too high to solely indulge anger, however satisfying it might feel.

And in order to deal with the facts, someone, somewhere needs to furnish the facts. 

An example: Canadians and Americans are greatly concerned with the ever increasing cost of groceries. The trade war sharply affects household grocery bills. To what extent? Enter the Canadian American Business Council.

The Council is a champion for the Canada/US relationship. I led it for many years, before the current CEO, the highly capable Beth Burke, took over.

The council works constantly behind the scenes, advocating for sensible, smooth, clear, liberalized trade. It has also come up with an innovative way to help Americans and Canadians understand the direct link between these trade negotiations and their wallets. 

On its website, CABC is now hosting a clever pocketbook campaign that includes a simple quiz. It may seem a bit lighthearted to gamify facts and figures about such a weighty matter, but it’s also effective. Thousands of people took it in the first hours it was online.

Canadians who take the time to play will learn the depth of Canada’s reliance on trade with the U.S.  Americans may conclude that the President is wrong when he says America does not need Canada.   

Advocacy matters.  But advocacy that engages the public on how policy directly affects their lives is the grail. 

The CABC’s efforts are most welcome. Take the quiz. You’ll come away better informed, and perhaps with a better appreciation of what Canada’s negotiating team is dealing with.

Maryscott Greenwood is the founder of Ottawa Street Strategy and a former US diplomat.  www.ottawastreetstrategy.com