Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney and other prominent conservatives took to social media Tuesday to say the NDP's Monday night win in the conservative stronghold of Calgary-Shaw illustrates the impact that the Oct. 19 referendum is having on conservative supporters.

Kenney said the debate on quitting Canada is alienating conservative voters who also love Canada while pushing disaffected nationalist supporters into the arms of left-centre opponents such as the NDP.

"A vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election, and for the Liberal Party of Canada to win far more Alberta seats," Kenney wrote on X.

Ken Boessenkool, a longtime conservative strategist and signatory of the famous 2001 Alberta firewall letter, said he reads the byelection result as voters being unhappy they're dealing with separatism at a time when more serious issues need addressing.

The UCP loss, he wrote on X, is "a welcome rebuke for distracting Albertans with a foolish, dangerous and undemocratic referendum."

Michael Solberg, a former staffer to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, also weighed in.

"The growing brand of rage-farming 'conservative' who supports separation and pushes conspiracy theories and fake narratives is UNELECTABLE anywhere," Solberg said on social media.

"The people are never wrong."

Cory Morgan, a conservative commentator who leads a third-party advertising outfit pushing for the province to separate from Canada, said the result shows Smith has angered her base, prompting many to stay home for the byelection.

"What I see here is the result of Smith trying to play on both sides of the unity issue," Morgan wrote on X.

Smith has said she had no choice but to put separation on the referendum ballot and put the contentious issue to rest. The question asks voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or hold a second binding referendum to quit Confederation.

Opponents say Smith has no mandate to quit Canada, that there is no raging public debate to leave, and that she is just doing it to hold at bay separatist hardliners in her party.

In unofficial voting results Monday, the NDP's Kyle Campbell received 7,461 votes, beating the UCP's Mike Derry by 582 votes.

The Calgary-Shaw riding, created in 1986, has long voted conservative. The NDP has won the seat only once, in 2015, as part of the "orange wave" that brought former premier Rachel Notley into government.

The NDP made the referendum a key part of its byelection campaign, urging voters to send a message to Smith that they don't want a government catering to separatists.

On Tuesday, Campbell and NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said the separation vote came up at the doors with byelection voters, and there was predominant support for Alberta remaining in Canada.

"People are really angry about it," Nenshi said.

"We deserve a government that is unapologetically, proudly Canadian. A government that doesn't distract us with costly referendums to save their own political skin."

But he added the referendum didn't seem to be swaying as many voters as he expected. Calgary-Shaw residents routinely brought up more day-to-day concerns like health care, education and affordability, said Nenshi.

The next provincial election is set for Oct. 18, 2027, and Calgary is considered the linchpin.

The NDP has dominated Edmonton in recent elections, while the UCP has taken smaller cities and rural areas, making Calgary the critical path to electoral success.

In the 2023 general election, won by the UCP under Smith, Calgary was a battleground. The NDP won 14 of the 26 seats -- a stark turnaround after the party captured three seats in the city in 2019.

Political scientist Lori Williams called Monday's result a significant loss for Smith but said it's difficult to take firm lessons from byelections.

Williams agreed the upcoming referendum played a role in the NDP's win, adding that the UCP candidate was endorsed by some in the independence movement and that could have been an additional liability.

She also said perceptions of Smith's performance on long-standing priorities for Albertans, including health care and affordability, played a role.

"I think it's that sort of one-two punch that's really generated the result in this byelection," she said.

"Voters have sent a message that they don't think (Smith is) performing on the files."

The seat flip means the ruling UCP now holds 47 of the legislature's 87 seats. The NDP has 39, and Peter Guthrie has the lone Progressive Tory seat.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2026.