In the fall of 1978, the country was due for an election. Most people expected it would happen in October or November. But the Liberal government of Pierre Trudeau was on shaky ground, very shaky. Trudeau was not popular in many parts of the country with voters remembering all too well how he’d won the 1974 election. He’d promised no wage and price controls to fight inflation. But, zap, after the election he froze them anyway. So, what to do?
No one thought he’d resign because of his unpopularity, but those closest to him thought a general election that fall would be a disaster. So, they concocted another plan.
There were fifteen seats in the House of Commons ready to be filled, so they called for byelections in all fifteen ridings for October 16. Seven of those ridings had been held by the Liberals but not by midnight on October 16th. The Conservatives under Joe Clark wound up with ten of the seats, six of them steals from the Liberals who wound up with only two.
It was the thumping the polls had been suggesting. But just like what happened in the Toronto-St Paul’s byelection the other night, it didn’t really change anything. The Liberals were, like they are today, still the government. But what impact would the results have on the real election now scheduled for the following year, 1979?
The Liberal brain trust in those days, Senator Keith Davey and senior Trudeau aide Jim Coutts, were hoping the October 16th results would prove to be the butt kicking those ridings wanted to give the Liberals, and that a few months later they’d be back in the fold. Turns out, at least in some of those ridings, that’s exactly what happened. Enough that when the Liberals won those seats in May of 1979, it held the eventual Clark general election win to a minority (and we all know what happened after that).
Now that’s just a theory as to what happened 46 years ago, and it’s a stretch to try to compare it to today, but hey – it’s my newsletter and it’s fun to play with scenarios.
Before we look south, let’s stay here and get to something more real, and more with today’s facts. We all know the Liberals did poorly in St Paul’s but they weren’t alone. Look at their pals in the NDP, as Robyn Urback did in the Globe:
