Has Silicon Valley found a new champion in JD Vance, Donald Trump’s running mate? Industry heavyweights like Elon Musk and David Sacks think so. They see Vance as a potential bridge between the tech world and populism. But will their vision of unfettered AI innovation resonate with Americans, or is this precisely the kind of elitist policy jabber that populists so deeply resent?

The Rise of AI in Politics

When Trump was in the Oval Office, artificial intelligence (AI) was barely on the political radar. Today, it is a booming global industry affecting everything from national security to movie making. Regulation is now front and centre, and a growing list of Silicon Valley CEOs are turning to Trump to deliver their vision. (Musk alone has committed $180 million to the Trump campaign.) 

Let’s consider three pillars of this emerging Republican policy agenda: deregulation to drive innovation, beating China in the global AI race, and leveraging AI for military projects.

Deregulation: Innovation vs. Safety 

As a senator, Vance has been a harsh critic of Big Tech’s regulatory approach. Last September, Senate Leader Chuck Schumer hosted a high-profile meeting with the nation’s top tech executives, who worried aloud about AI safety and called on the government to work with them to regulate the industry. 

Vance wasn’t impressed. Where Democrats saw an extended hand, he saw cynical self-interest. In his view, the CEOs’ proposed partnership was a thinly veiled effort at regulatory capture. 

For their part, Democrats take AI safety seriously, and in October, Biden issued an executive order that imposes significant new safety testing on AI systems and requires developers to share their test results with the government. This was seen as a first step.

Now the ground is shifting again. A new alliance of CEOs – “Tech for Trump” – argues that Biden’s approach stifles innovation and growth. They oppose regulation and want this trend reversed. Further, Trump has jumped on the bandwagon, declaring that a Trump administration “will repeal Joe Biden's dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology.”

To be clear, Silicon Valley remains predominantly Democrat, and lots of CEOs oppose deregulation, as do most Americans – from both parties. A recent Time Magazine poll reveals high public concern over AI safety. Seventy-five percent of both Democrats and Republicans believe that “taking a careful, controlled approach” to AI is preferable to “moving forward on AI as fast as possible to be the first country to get extremely powerful AI.”

This puts Vance’s populism in an awkward position. What’s so special about the Tech for Trump CEOs? Why is their call for deregulation any less “self-interested” than the regulatory partnership he rejected at Senator Schumer’s meeting? 

This hole gets even deeper.

The China Argument

Vance is among many “Asia First” Republican politicians who advocate for shifting U.S. focus from Europe to counter China’s rise. AI is a growing concern. Chinese President Xi Jinping aims to make China a global leader in AI by 2030. However, China’s authoritarianism and industrial espionage have raised red flags. How will its government use this powerful new technology?

Many in the tech industry share this concern. Indeed, AI development is now widely seen as like an arms race with China. As a result, the new knockdown argument against regulation is that it could slow innovation and development, allowing China to take the lead—a scenario considered potentially disastrous.

However, if the tech industry finds this persuasive, American voters don’t agree. According to the Time poll cited above, ordinary Americans choose safety over innovation, if this means building “ever more powerful artificial intelligence, unconstrained by domestic regulations, in an effort to compete with China.” More on this in a moment.

The AI “Manhattan Projects”

The third Republican AI policy pillar focuses on special military projects. During last week’s Milwaukee Convention, the Washington Post reported that a group of senior Trump confidants had drafted an ambitious Republican Executive Order to "Make America First in AI." This draft order prioritizes deregulation along with a series of "Manhattan Projects" aimed at advancing military AI capabilities.

While there is little detail on these projects, an unexpected moment during Trump’s acceptance speech last Thursday night provided a hint. Departing from his prepared text, Trump pledged to build an “Iron Dome” missile defense system for the United States akin to the one in Israel. He recalled Ronald Reagan’s failed “Star Wars” initiative but praised the power of AI to achieve extraordinary things today. 

Presumably, this is one of the new Manhattan Projects. If so, it is likely to provide lucrative benefits to tech companies with existing Pentagon contracts, such as Palantir. Peter Thiel, Vance’s mentor, principal funder, and the man who introduced him to Trump, chairs Palantir.

This draft Republican Executive Order thus raises a further question for Vance’s populism: Are America’s “working people” – whom Vance pledges to serve – likely to favour a plan to cancel Biden’s AI safety measures and replace them with nothing but a highly secretive series of AI military projects?

Populism vs. Power: The Realities

While the tech industry’s desire for unfettered AI development is understandable, the public's desire for AI safety is not frivolous. It reflects well-founded concerns about AI's profound and potentially disruptive impact on society. Republicans’ emerging approach only raises the stakes:

• Deregulation may foster innovation, but most experts agree that ignoring safety is highly risky. We still know too little about AI's potential dangers.
• Outpacing China in the global AI race provides CEOs with a standing argument – “We can’t let China get ahead!” – to sideline safety concerns when inconvenient.
• Leveraging AI for military supremacy complements the AI arms race with an old-fashioned arms race, potentially deepening tensions with China and accelerating a new Cold War.

In sum, from an AI safety viewpoint, this deregulatory approach looks risky at best. Nevertheless, Silicon Valley’s new CEO alliance is paying the piper and appears to be calling the tune. If Trump is elected, he will likely turn to his new VP to play the music. Where will Vance’s populism take America then?

Don Lenihan PhD is an expert in public engagement with a long-standing focus on how digital technologies are transforming societies, governments, and governance. This column appears weekly.