The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) released its 2024 report last week. It calls on the Trump administration to launch a “Manhattan Project” for Artificial Intelligence (AI)—a race to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before China does. Achieving AGI would be at least as significant as splitting the atom—and Trump looks increasingly likely to take it on.
The USCC, a bipartisan congressional commission, reports annually on the national security implications of the US-China economic relationship. The commission is not the first to propose a Manhattan Project—Trump allies floated a similar idea last August—but it believes this is the critical challenge of our time.
It’s a remarkable, possibly very prescient report. Let’s take a closer look at the vision it presents. At its core, the report is built on three key principles:
- AI is critical to America’s future.
- China poses the greatest challenge to US leadership.
- Government must take the lead in developing AGI.
AI is critical to America’s future
The phrase “Manhattan Project” is more than a historical reference—it’s a metaphor for the vision, leadership, and resources needed to develop a transformative technology. In the 1940s, that technology was nuclear fission. Today, it’s AGI.
Unlike today’s AI models, AGI is much closer to human intelligence and can solve complex problems that are beyond the AI we now know. Experts believe AGI will transform science, reshape industries, and redefine global power.
The USCC argues that AGI is key to reaffirming America’s status as the world’s preeminent economic and military power. If the US fails to meet the challenge, China will almost certainly take the lead.
China poses the greatest challenge to US leadership.
The USCC sees China as the principal challenge not just because China aims to lead the world in AI by 2030, but because it fails to play by the same rules as the West.
For instance, Deep Seek, a Chinese tech company, has, in just a few months, produced a chatbot that reportedly rivals ChatGPT—the product of huge investments and research. How?
The USCC accuses China of misappropriating America’s intellectual property. This is about more than industrial espionage. Industrial security is generally weak, and AI has become a dangerous security risk. The USCC urges the government to prioritize AI security and give intelligence agencies and the military a larger role in its development and protection.
China’s use of AI for surveillance and population control is another risk. AGI will be the most powerful tool ever created. If China gets it first, the USCC fears that its government will use the technology not only to undermine US economic and military supremacy but also global stability.
In the USCC’s view, the AI race is at a critical juncture. For America, pursuing an AI Manhattan Project isn’t just a strategic goal—it’s a national security imperative.
Government must take the lead in developing AGI
The commission’s views on public-private collaboration are also noteworthy. These partnerships, it declares, are essential to ensure that AGI is developed swiftly and securely and to maintain America’s global leadership in innovation.
The USCC calls on Congress to approve “broad multi-year contracting authority” for AI, cloud, and data enterprises. This authority would be exercised by the executive—in effect, the President would control all contracting.
This public-private partnership model takes a huge step beyond the Biden administration’s AI regulation. It is also appealing to AI industry leaders, whether Democrat or Republican, many of whom now view some kind of Manhattan Project approach as necessary.
Will Trump Buy It?
The USCC’s vision aligns with ideas circulating among Trump’s allies. Figures like JD Vance and Peter Thiel are strong advocates for bold government action in AI. Last August, Trump advisors were already floating the idea of an AI Manhattan Project.
The model also suits Trump’s leadership style. He thrives on consolidating power in the White House and framing initiatives as high-stakes competitions—a perfect fit for the Manhattan Project analogy.
Trump’s long-standing critiques of China’s economic practices extend naturally to AI. His recent statement, “We have to take the lead over China, China is the primary threat,” reflects this view.
Finally, with Republican majorities in Congress, Trump is well positioned to pursue such a project. Legislation could pass before the midterms, giving him control over an AI Manhattan Project and cementing his role in shaping America’s AI future.
Consequences: Safety or. Security?
Only a few years ago, experts believed AGI was decades away. Now, leaders like Elon Musk and Sam Altman predict it could arrive by 2030. A Manhattan Project would help cement this timeline, possibly delivering AGI during Trump’s administration.
But the AI race with China carries risks. Tech companies are already rushing toward AGI, raising fears of unleashing something we can’t control. Critics argue for caution, regulation, and possibly even pauses in development. A Manhattan Project shifts the focus to geopolitical competition, reframing AGI as a fight for global leadership.
This approach forces us to make a tough choice: move fast to stay ahead of China or prioritize safety and risk falling behind. Both paths carry serious risks: losing AGI to China or losing control of it altogether.
The USCC’s proposal brings these trade-offs into sharp focus. The race to AGI isn’t just about winning—it’s about what we’re willing to sacrifice to get there.
Don Lenihan PhD is an expert in public engagement with a long-standing focus on how digital technologies are transforming societies, governments, and governance. This column appears weekly. To see earlier instalments in the series, click here.