These are very different questions. Question 1 is short-term, focused on leadership and temperament, and asks which candidate has the experience, competence and strength to manage Trump—for now. 

Question 2 is longer-term, focused on the nature of the threat, and pushes voters to consider what kind of challenge Trump presents: a trade war, an attack on our sovereignty, or a fundamental shift in the geopolitical order.

This campaign will generate endless noise about the “who,” but we’ll hear far too little about the “what.” So, what exactly are we dealing with?

The Trade War

The crisis is often described as a trade war. The story is familiar: Trump is an erratic leader whose tariffs threaten to hurt Americans almost as much as Canadians. Markets are already dropping, inflation is climbing, and Trump himself has hinted at a looming recession.

The common advice is not to overreact. Canada should negotiate reasonably but firmly, hoping Americans will tire of the chaos. The Republican House majority is razor-thin; Democrats could retake control in the 2026 midterms, possibly forcing Trump to back off.

Or are we just whistling past the graveyard? Recall Trump’s first term. When he lost the midterms, he didn't back off; he doubled down, aggressively testing America’s famous “checks and balances” by pushing them to the limits. January 6^th showed just how far he’ll go.

Trump 2.0 is better prepared and even more ambitious. He has no intention of respecting rules that work against him, domestic or international. For Trump, all politics is about power, and Canadians should expect him to use every lever available.

So, this isn’t just a trade war. Trade wars involve disputes over rules. Trump’s contempt for rules means he’ll violate more than trade norms—he may well violate our sovereignty. And that would elevate this crisis to another level. That’s why we need Question 2. Now we’re focused on the “what.” 

How Our Sovereignty Could Be Challenged

While Canadian leaders often acknowledge Trump’s threats to our sovereignty, they rarely explain what these threats might involve or how Canada should respond. Let’s consider two key possibilities:

Military Intimidation: Trump believes America’s national security demands firm control over North America—from Greenland to the Panama Canal. He has openly talked about retaking the Canal and annexing Greenland and frequently reminds the world of these ambitions.

While he claims he won't use military force against Canada, escalating tensions over tariffs could lead him to deploy military assets to intimidate without invading. For example, Trump has already suggested expanding America’s large military presence in Greenland. He could easily position submarines and warships in Canada’s Northwest Passage—waters the U.S. insists are international—steadily expanding America’s Arctic presence. This provocative step would challenge Canadian sovereignty directly. How would Canada respond?

Digital Sovereignty: Sovereignty today increasingly depends on cyber security and digital control. A country unable to protect its digital assets and infrastructure—from banking and intelligence to elections—is dangerously vulnerable. But such protection requires robust, domestically-controlled digital infrastructure.

Canada is a deeply connected society but lacks substantial digital infrastructure of its own and building it would be very costly. Without decisive action soon, Canadian digital infrastructure will inevitably be built and controlled by American firms—putting our digital sovereignty in their hands. If Trump can threaten our economy with tariffs, what will a future US president be able to do with control over our digital assets?

Geopolitical Realignment: Whither the West?

Much about Trump’s broader geopolitical ambitions remains unclear—even experts struggle to predict how far he might go. But we can learn a lot from watching him. Trump’s approach to power follows a familiar authoritarian playbook: weaken controls, install loyalists, and consolidate power.

It’s the same approach we've seen from leaders like Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orban, and increasingly Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Narendra Modi. Trump is following the same path—possibly taking it even further.

Trump 2.0 is deeply engaged in geopolitics, and his threats toward Canada, Panama, and Greenland suggest he is considering a bigger play. Backed by America’s immense economic, military, and digital capabilities, Trump may seek far greater control over North America. 

We don’t yet know how far he might push this, but he might even seek deals with Russia and China to redraw boundaries around their global spheres of influence.

This geopolitical vision of a return to the era of Great Powers reaches beyond concerns over Canadian sovereignty, raising profound questions about Western alliances like NATO, NORAD, and democracy itself. Canadian political leaders may prefer not to debate these topics during the election, but the threat to the established global order is too serious to ignore. Canadians should be aware—and Canada must be prepared.

Conclusion

With Trump, nothing is clear or certain. Perhaps in the end this crisis will be no more than a trade war. Perhaps sober minds will prevail, restoring stability—or perhaps not.

But for now, the stakes could hardly be higher, and everything revolves around Trump. He is the ballot question, and he knows it. If the candidates won’t frame and address these issues clearly, Trump will be at liberty to do so on his own terms.

And we know his MO so very, very well: create chaos. We cannot let him define this debate. It must happen here—in Canada, between Canadians.

It is our election and our future.

Don Lenihan PhD is an expert in public engagement with a long-standing focus on how digital technologies are transforming societies, governments, and governance. This column appears weekly. To see earlier instalments in the series, click here.