Limited and Declining Support for Separation in Alberta
Only two-in-ten Albertans plan to vote in favour of holding a future separation vote in the October 19th referendum
Darrell Bricker
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Liberal Lead Over Conservatives Grows to 8 Points
A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party (44%, +4 pts vs. December 2025) would have a larger lead over the Conservatives (36%, -1 pt vs. December) than they did on Election Day last year. Still lagging behind is the NDP (8%, -1 pt). The Bloc Québécois would garner...
Carney Approval Climbs After One Year, Outpacing Poilievre Support Momentum
Consistent with Ipsos polling in 2025 for Global News, Mark Carney remains the sole federal party leader with a net positive approval: 58% of Canadians approve (+10 pts vs. just before the 2025 federal election), while 33% disapprove (+3 pts). In contrast, his primary political opponent Pierre Poilievre faces greater disapproval at 48% (-4 pts), compared to 41% (+6 pts)...
Majority (62%) of Canadians Say Floor Crossing Should Not Be Allowed
A majority (62%) of Canadians believe that MPs should not be allowed to switch political parties after being elected to the House of Commons, according to a new Ipsos poll for Global News. Moreover, if it were to happen in their district, most (69%) would want an immediate by-election. Only 41% agree that they'd be comfortable with their own MP...
Liberals Hold Narrow Lead Over Conservatives as 2025 Closes
A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party (40%, -3 pts vs. September 2025) would hold a three-point lead over the Conservatives (37%, -2 pts vs. September), the same-sized lead as the Liberals held on election night in April. Still lagging behind is the NDP (9%, +2 pts). The...
Six in Ten Canadians (60%) Believe We Can Never Trust the Americans the Same Way Again
A new Ipsos poll finds that six in ten Canadians (60%) say we can never trust the Americans the same way again, a number that has stayed steady since tracking began in February. Meanwhile, half of Canadians (51%) approve of the way Prime Minister Mark Carney and the federal government are managing Canada - U.S. relations, while one-third (32%) disapprove...
Six In Ten Canadians (58%) Approve of the Liberal Government’s Performance Under Pm Carney
As parliament resumes on Sept. 15th – and with Poilievre taking his new seat in the House of Commons – a new Ipsos poll finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party would hold a four-point lead in the decided vote (43%, -1 pt) over the Conservatives (39%, -2 pts), a result that remains relatively close...
Liberals Poised to Win Fourth Term - Carney Seen As Best to Lead Canada
On the eve of the 45th Canadian federal election, Ipsos polling for Global News reveals that the Liberals are poised to earn their fourth consecutive mandate, leading the Conservatives by four points nationally among decided voters (42% Liberal vs. 38% Conservative). The NDP trails with 9%, while the Bloc Québécois holds 6% support nationally — 25% in Québec. The Green...
Race Tightens Further as Campaign Hits Final Stretch
New Ipsos polling for Global News following the televised leaders’ debates shows the Conservatives (38%, +2) continuing to close the gap with the Liberals (41%, -1) who are clutching to a three-point lead, nationally. The NDP has 12% (+1) of the vote among decided voters, while the Bloc is at 5% nationally, or 25% within Quebec. Canadians say they prefer...
Canadians Say No Clear Winner Emerged from Leaders’ Debates
One-third of Canadians (33%) watched the Federal Leaders’ debates conducted on April 16th and 17th , and 28% report reading or listening to subsequent news or analysis. Among those who watched and/or heard analysis, Canadians believe Mark Carney very narrowly outperformed Pierre Poilievre in the English language debate, with 33% favouring Carney and 30% supporting Poilievre. Jagmeet Singh garnered 3%...
Carney Ahead on Most Key Leadership Metrics as Election Day Nears, but Poilievre Gaining Steam on Affordability
As the election campaign enters its final week, Canadians predominantly view Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre as the leading candidates for Prime Minister. Carney consistently outpaces Poilievre across crucial areas, such as managing tough economic times (+15 points vs Poilievre), having the right temperament and maturity for leadership (+14 points), representing Canada on the world stage (+13 points), and standing...
Race Tightens as Campaign Moves Into Critical Debate Week
As we move into debate week, the Liberal party (42%, -4 pts vs. last week) has lost a bit of ground for the first time since the campaign began, and the Conservative party (36%, +2 pts) has narrowed the gap behind the Liberals. Around one in ten Canadians (11%, -1 pt) say that they would vote for the NDP if...
Though Carney Still Leads in Dealing with Trump, Poilievre Gaining Momentum
When thinking about aspects of navigating the troubled waters of Canada’s relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump, Canadians continue to prefer Carney as best leader to negotiate, unite Canadians to make the country less dependent on the US, and have the skills needed to help Canadians deal with economic hardship owing to Trump’s tariffs. Poilievre, for his...
Conservatives Lead as Best Party to Deal with Economic Issues
When asked about the most crucial issues facing the country, Canadians continue to rank affordability and the cost of living as their top concern, increasing by five percentage points since late March. Following the stock market crash in early April, concern about the economy has risen in priority, now ranking second – surpassing healthcare, housing, and Canada’s relationship with the...
Carney Liberals Open Up Double-Digit Lead
The Liberal Party led by Mark Carney continues to gain momentum in week two of election campaigning (46%, +2), opening a double-digit lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives (34%, -4 pts) among decided voters. This level of national support firmly places the Liberals in majority-government territory if the election were held today. The Liberals hold a lead in Ontario, British Columbia...
Decided Liberal Voters Most Likely to Say They Will Vote to Ensure Another Party Does Not Win Election
Around half of decided voters continue to say they are “absolutely” certain of their vote choice, higher among Conservative voters (59%) compared to Liberal voters (54%) and NDP voters (38%). Just under one in five (16%) say their vote choice has changed in the last four weeks. The Liberal (22%) and NDP parties (22%) gained the most momentum from vote...
Week one goes to the Carney Liberals. But it isn’t over ’til it’s over
Mark Carney and his revitalized Liberal Party have come roaring out of the gate, opening a comfortable lead over Pierre Poilievre and a Conservative campaign that still seems to be waiting for the starter’s pistol. If the six-point edge we’re seeing in our Ipsos polling for Global News holds through to election day, Carney could be standing on the doorstep...
Liberals Lead over Conservatives in Week One of Campaign
As the 2025 federal election campaign kicks off, the Liberal party led by Mark Carney continues to enjoy a national lead (44%, +2 pts vs. earlier this month) over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives (38%, +2 pts), extending to key regions such as Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Support for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP (9%, -1 pt) continues to diminish as the progressive...
Carney Seen as Best Leader to Represent Canada, Navigate Tough Economic Times
At the start, the election appears to be driven by the views Canadians have of the various party leaders. In every way that matters, Liberal Party leader Mark Carney is running well ahead of his opponents. Given the ongoing tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump, Canadians see Carney as best to help navigate the uncertainty: Carney’s lead...
Conservatives and Liberals Tied on Who's Best on #1 Issue: Affordability; Liberals Dominate on #2 Issue: Relationship with the US
Affordability and cost of living, Canada’s relationship with the United States, healthcare, and housing emerge as the dominant concerns in this election for Canadians. Other economic issues such as taxes, unemployment, and interest rates also appear in the top ranks. Issues that fall outside of the top nine include relations with other countries/trade (10%), poverty and social inequality (10%), crime...
Mark Carney’s Liberals Seen as Best Party to Deal with Trump & Tariffs
Mark Carney is thought to be the best federal party leader to help Canada navigate challenges associated with the Donald Trump Presidency, performing well ahead of Justin Trudeau on the same measures. By contrast, Pierre Poilievre is the candidate chosen by Canadians as most likely to roll over and accept whatever President Trump demands, with more Canadians indicating this view...
Poilievre and Carney Lead in Dealing with Trump, Yet Doubts Persist
When asked which potential Canadian leader would be a tough negotiator securing the best deal with President Trump, 28% of Canadians chose Pierre Poilievre, followed by 23% for Mark Carney. However, Poilievre also faces skepticism, as 31% believe he would yield to Trump's demands compared to just 6% for Carney and 4% for Chrystia Freeland. This paradox reflects complex public...
Liberals Take Lead for First Time Since 2021
After nearly four years of Conservative dominance in the polls, the Liberal Party of Canada has taken a two-point lead among decided voters, overturning a 26-point deficit from just six weeks ago. Support for the Bloc Québécois has declined (-3 points), while the NDP vote continues to collapse (-4 points), further strengthening the Liberals. The Conservatives (-5 points) are facing...
Liberals Narrow Gap with Conservatives
Liberal Party support has increased as the party advances in selecting a new leader, reaching 28%, an 8-point gain since early January. This growth in Liberal backing has come partly at the expense of the Conservative Party, which has seen its support decrease to 41%, a 5-point drop. Despite these shifts, the Conservatives remain well-positioned for a decisive victory if...
With the Laurentian elite’s power fading, a new and less stable Canada is emerging
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are unlikely to hold onto the Greater Vancouver riding of Cloverdale-Langley City in the Dec. 16 by-election. The government is deeply unpopular, and it lost much safer seats in Toronto and Montreal in by-elections earlier this year. But more is going on than simply voter resentment of a government that’s long in the tooth. The Liberal Party...
Majority (56%) feel opposition parties should work with government to avoid an early election, even amidst low support for Trudeau
In response to Jagmeet Singh’s withdrawal of support for Justin Trudeau’s government, over half of Canadians (56%) feel the opposition parties should try to work with the government to avoid an early election, while 44% think the opposition parties should defeat the government to trigger an election. Only 28% of Canadians believe that the Liberal Party would do better in...
Poilievre Top Choice for Best PM in Canada
Pierre Poilievre as the preferred choice for Prime Minister, with significant discontent towards Justin Trudeau's leadership and many Canadians believing he should resign.
Poilievre Top Choice for Best PM in Canada
Pierre Poilievre as the preferred choice for Prime Minister, with significant discontent towards Justin Trudeau's leadership and many Canadians believing he should resign.
NDP Falters but Liberals Can't Capitalize as Conservatives Maintain 19-point Lead
Canada's NDP, the junior partner in the confidence-and-supply agreement, has stumbled, losing three points in the popular vote since last month (16%, -3), according to a new Ipsos poll for Global News. However, the ruling party, the Liberals, have been unable to fully capitalize, gaining only 1 point (25%, +1) since last month. The Conservatives have also ticked up (44%...
Tories (43%) Hold a Steady 19-Point Lead over Liberals (24%), as a Third of Canadians Say They Would Never Vote Liberal in the Next Election
When asked which party they would never consider voting for in the next election, almost a third said Liberals (32%), followed by 27% who said they would never vote Conservative. Older Canadians are more likely to say they would never vote Liberal in the next election compared to younger Canadians (36% 55+, 35% 35-54, 22% 18-34). Canadians have a more...
Tories (41%) Open 18-Point Lead Over Liberals (23%), Lead in Every Region Except Quebec
The Conservatives have opened an 18-point lead over the Liberals, who still appear at risk of losing their second-place position. The Conservative lead has grown by 2 points in four months, underscoring the challenges that the incumbent Liberal government is facing.
Growing Proportion Of Canadians Want Trudeau To Step Down
ith Liberal polling numbers in free fall, it appears that Canadians increasingly want Justin Trudeau’s tenure as Liberal Party Leader and Prime Minister to end. Nearly three quarters (72%) of Canadians now think Trudeau should step down, up from 60% in September. Within his own party, support for the current leader and Prime Minister is also flagging. One third (33%)...