While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from Frank Graves.
The Liberal Party maintains a commanding lead, though its advantage has narrowed somewhat over the past month. The Liberals stand at 44.5 per cent nationally, while the Conservatives are 14 points behind at 31.0 per cent. Although the Liberals would easily win a majority government with these numbers, the margin has tightened from nearly 21 points last month.
At the end of 2024, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by a massive and seemingly insurmountable 25 points. Today, that deficit has flipped to a 20-point Liberal lead. That is not a normal swing. It may be the most dramatic one-year reversal in modern Canadian political history.
At the end of 2024, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by a massive and seemingly insurmountable 25 points. Today, that deficit has flipped to a 20-point Liberal lead.
In our first poll since the federal budget was tabled on November 4, the Liberal Party holds a clear 11-point lead over the Conservatives. However, the race is still relatively tight in seat-rich Ontario and the Liberals continue to fare comparatively poorly among Canadians under 35. Within this cohort, partisan preferences diverge sharply: under-35 men lean Conservative, while under-35 women...
With barely a week to go until the federal government tables its budget, Canadians have a clear message for Ottawa: they do not want another election this year. By a two-to-one margin, Canadians reject the idea that opposition parties should vote against the upcoming budget (and thus trigger an election). Likewise, half of Canadians – including a majority of NDP...
Below is a retrospective of the 45th Canadian federal election, the forces that shaped it, and the challenges Canada faces. Please click here for a PDF version of this report.
We submit our final poll for the 2025 federal election. We are selecting our 3-day rolling IVR poll as our choice to predict the final vote outcome. Our chosen final poll shows a stable six-point Liberal lead (44.4 per cent versus 36.5 per cent for the Conservatives), which we believe will produce a 184-seat majority government. The NDP is in...
The Liberal Party saw a brief decline in its fortunes following the debates. Indeed, our one-night Friday polling (not shown) saw the party trailing the Conservatives for the first time since February. However, the Liberal Party has rebounded and, at 43.5 points, the party has re-established a five-point lead over the Conservatives, who are at 39.0 points. At 8.3 points...
The race appears to have settled into a holding pattern, with the Liberal Party maintaining a stable 13-point lead. Both our three-day and five-day rolls (the latter offering more reliable regional estimates) show exactly the same top-line national results. The demographic and regional patterns also appear to have stabilized.
In our latest five-day roll-up, the Liberals are at 49.0 points and the party holds a 15-point lead over the Conservatives, who remain steady at 33.1 per cent in our latest three-day roll-up. Our parallel online poll using our probability-based panel, Probit, shows similar results (47.1 per cent to 32.7 per cent). The NDP, meanwhile, is at between 6.9 and 10.2 per cent nationally.
With less than a month to go until Election Day, the Liberal Party enjoys a very clear and stable lead. At 48 per cent, the party holds a 15-point lead over the second-place Conservatives, who are sitting at 33 points. At seven points, the NDP has been stuck below 10 points for nearly a month. The Bloc Québécois has seen...
In the post-writ period, the Liberal Party appears to be maintaining a commanding lead (48 per cent, compared to 36 per cent for the second-place Conservatives). However, there are some tentative signs of a Conservative recovery and the Liberal advantage has narrowed from 19 points to 13 points over the last two days. It is unclear whether this movement is...
Mark Carney’s landslide victory as Liberal leader on Sunday has propelled the party to 49.5 per cent – a record high in our 26 years of IVR tracking. Most of these gains have come at the expense of the NDP and the Green Party, whose support has collapsed to 8.0 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively, amid the flurry...
The “Carney Effect” could expand advantage to majority. In a profound transformation of the political landscape, the Liberal Party has jumpstarted a moribund and dismal outcome at the beginning of the year to what would be a clear majority outcome if an election were held tomorrow. The principal driver has been a burgeoning national identity and search for economic sovereignty...
In a profound transformation of the political landscape, the Liberal Party has jumpstarted a moribund and dismal outcome at the beginning of the year to what would be a clear majority outcome if an election were held tomorrow. The principal driver has been a burgeoning national identity and search for economic sovereignty in a coming storm produced by the Trump...
Approximately a month ago, following Freeland’s dramatic exit from the Liberal cabinet, the Conservatives opened up a seemingly insurmountable lead of 25 points. Since then, the entire complexion of what appeared to be an inevitable Conservative majority has changed. This massive lead has virtually evaporated over a one-month period.
Approximately a month ago, following Freeland’s dramatic exit from the Liberal cabinet, the Conservatives opened up a seemingly insurmountable lead of 25 points. Since then, the entire complexion of what appeared to be an inevitable Conservative majority has changed. This massive lead has virtually evaporated over a one-month period.
The two of us were part of a panel discussion at the recent IIC Conference on how disinformation drives polarization, and how Artificial Intelligence (AI) might impact this trend. The audience found our views very engaging, and so we thought you might too. We’ve also included some thoughts on the US election.
