Frank Graves

While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from Frank Graves.

EKOS Predicts Liberal Majority

EKOS Predicts Liberal Majority

We submit our final poll for the 2025 federal election. We are selecting our 3-day rolling IVR poll as our choice to predict the final vote outcome. Our chosen final poll shows a stable six-point Liberal lead (44.4 per cent versus 36.5 per cent for the Conservatives), which we believe will produce a 184-seat majority government. The NDP is in...

Conservatives Experience One-Night Lead, Followed by Liberal Recovery

Conservatives Experience One-Night Lead, Followed by Liberal Recovery

The Liberal Party saw a brief decline in its fortunes following the debates. Indeed, our one-night Friday polling (not shown) saw the party trailing the Conservatives for the first time since February. However, the Liberal Party has rebounded and, at 43.5 points, the party has re-established a five-point lead over the Conservatives, who are at 39.0 points. At 8.3 points...

Race Highly Stable as Liberals Maintain 13-Point Lead

Race Highly Stable as Liberals Maintain 13-Point Lead

The race appears to have settled into a holding pattern, with the Liberal Party maintaining a stable 13-point lead. Both our three-day and five-day rolls (the latter offering more reliable regional estimates) show exactly the same top-line national results. The demographic and regional patterns also appear to have stabilized.

Liberals Maintain Strong and Stable Lead

Liberals Maintain Strong and Stable Lead

In our latest five-day roll-up, the Liberals are at 49.0 points and the party holds a 15-point lead over the Conservatives, who remain steady at 33.1 per cent in our latest three-day roll-up. Our parallel online poll using our probability-based panel, Probit, shows similar results (47.1 per cent to 32.7 per cent). The NDP, meanwhile, is at between 6.9 and 10.2 per cent nationally.

Liberals Hold 15-Point Lead

Liberals Hold 15-Point Lead

With less than a month to go until Election Day, the Liberal Party enjoys a very clear and stable lead. At 48 per cent, the party holds a 15-point lead over the second-place Conservatives, who are sitting at 33 points. At seven points, the NDP has been stuck below 10 points for nearly a month. The Bloc Québécois has seen...

Liberals Maintain Commanding Lead with Major Seat Efficiency Advantage

Liberals Maintain Commanding Lead with Major Seat Efficiency Advantage

In the post-writ period, the Liberal Party appears to be maintaining a commanding lead (48 per cent, compared to 36 per cent for the second-place Conservatives). However, there are some tentative signs of a Conservative recovery and the Liberal advantage has narrowed from 19 points to 13 points over the last two days. It is unclear whether this movement is...

Liberals Surge to between 42 and 49 Points as Progressive Voters Rally Behind Carney - Either result would produce a Liberal majority

Liberals Surge to between 42 and 49 Points as Progressive Voters Rally Behind Carney - Either result would produce a Liberal majority

Mark Carney’s landslide victory as Liberal leader on Sunday has propelled the party to 49.5 per cent – a record high in our 26 years of IVR tracking. Most of these gains have come at the expense of the NDP and the Green Party, whose support has collapsed to 8.0 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively, amid the flurry...

Rising Nationalism, Desire for Economic Sovereignty Propels Liberals to Five-Year High

Rising Nationalism, Desire for Economic Sovereignty Propels Liberals to Five-Year High

The “Carney Effect” could expand advantage to majority. In a profound transformation of the political landscape, the Liberal Party has jumpstarted a moribund and dismal outcome at the beginning of the year to what would be a clear majority outcome if an election were held tomorrow. The principal driver has been a burgeoning national identity and search for economic sovereignty...

Rising Nationalism, Desire for Economic Sovereignty Propels Liberals to Five-Year High

Rising Nationalism, Desire for Economic Sovereignty Propels Liberals to Five-Year High

In a profound transformation of the political landscape, the Liberal Party has jumpstarted a moribund and dismal outcome at the beginning of the year to what would be a clear majority outcome if an election were held tomorrow. The principal driver has been a burgeoning national identity and search for economic sovereignty in a coming storm produced by the Trump...

Major and Straight-Line Decline in Conservative Advantage over Past Month

Major and Straight-Line Decline in Conservative Advantage over Past Month

Approximately a month ago, following Freeland’s dramatic exit from the Liberal cabinet, the Conservatives opened up a seemingly insurmountable lead of 25 points. Since then, the entire complexion of what appeared to be an inevitable Conservative majority has changed. This massive lead has virtually evaporated over a one-month period.

Major and Straight-Line Decline in Conservative Advantage over Past Month

Major and Straight-Line Decline in Conservative Advantage over Past Month

Approximately a month ago, following Freeland’s dramatic exit from the Liberal cabinet, the Conservatives opened up a seemingly insurmountable lead of 25 points. Since then, the entire complexion of what appeared to be an inevitable Conservative majority has changed. This massive lead has virtually evaporated over a one-month period.

Disinformation and Polarization in The Age of AI— Are Democracies at a Tipping Point?

Disinformation and Polarization in The Age of AI— Are Democracies at a Tipping Point?

The two of us were part of a panel discussion at the recent IIC Conference on how disinformation drives polarization, and how Artificial Intelligence (AI) might impact this trend. The audience found our views very engaging, and so we thought you might too. We’ve also included some thoughts on the US election.

Disinformation and Polarization in The Age of AI— Are Democracies at a Tipping Point?