While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from Ian Campbell.
As American tariffs ramp up the stakes on improving free trade in Canada, trade experts describe recent federal moves as primarily symbolic but say proposed Nova Scotia legislation has the potential to be “a game changer” if other provinces get on board.
New videos ads from the Grits and Tories are an ‘opening salvo’ as both parties look to ‘make sure their voice is heard’ between now and when a new Liberal leader is chosen, says former Liberal PMO staffer Dan Arnold.
United States President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff threats and talk of making Canada the “51st state” have sparked a shift in attitudes when it comes to Quebec’s place in Canada—but it remains to be seen how long those feelings will last, say observers. Several recent polls have found shifting attitudes in the province regarding Quebec sovereignty. They also show increased...
Some regions face 'unique geographic, environmental, or industry-specific challenges' making 'full harmonization difficult,' said Northwest Territories Minister Caitlin Cleveland.
The Liberal government prominently framed $21-billion in contingent liabilities at the centre of its explanation for how its deficit ballooned last fall but—in the wake of a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer—Finance Canada concedes “there were other contributing factors” at play.
Canadians 20 to 30 years down the line ‘shouldn't be paying off the debt that we incurred’ to weather an economic downturn, says C.D. Howe’s John Lester.
As the first phase of the Liberal leadership race draws to a close, Mark Carney’s quick launch gave him a boost out of the gate, say observers, but some question whether he is sustaining that early momentum and positioning himself well for a general election. Pollster Greg Lyle said Carney’s pre-campaign appearance on The Daily Show on Jan. 13 served...
Atlantic Canada will continue to punch above its weight in federal Liberal politics, so leadership hopefuls must show they understand the region and rural needs to capture this bloc, say several party organizers from the East Coast. “We’re a pretty pragmatic region,” said Charlie Byrne, a Liberal Party organizer based in St. John’s, N.L., who is also a senior director...
It’s difficult to ‘firebomb’ the Trudeau legacy during the leadership campaign when many party members are the ‘remaining’ ones who approve of the prime minister, says pollster David Coletto. But this leadership race is ‘the first act of the general election,’ and candidates will have little time to ‘pivot’ afterwards, says former Liberal staffer Dan Arnold.
Most of the attention on last month’s fall economic statement centred on the bombshell resignation of then-finance minister Chrystia Freeland but—as the political turmoil sparked by her departure continues to unravel—serious questions remain about how and why the government missed its deficit target, adding to a pattern of the Liberals failing to maintain fiscal anchors since coming to power in...
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shuffled his cabinet amid a crisis of “legitimacy” as he faces growing calls from within his own party to resign, while the NDP looked to take “the wind out of his sails” by announcing plans to defeat the government just as the newly minted ministers were gathering at Rideau Hall.
The government appears to be ‘improvising’ as it manages the on-the-fly appointment of a new finance minister, and an economic statement that shows the deficit has grown by more than 50 per cent, says pollster Darrell Bricker.
The government’s delay in releasing two key fiscal documents may be a tactic to discredit the opposition parties’ ongoing filibuster of the House of Commons—even though the parliamentary gridlock does not actually prevent the governing Liberals from releasing these items—say former party operatives. “There’s a convenient opportunity or political motivations to blame the opposition parties who are engaged in the...
As Canadian officials plot their response to threats of crippling tariffs that don’t “seem to be rational,” any “winning strategy” requires unity and may mean giving up “sacred cows” when it comes to historically protected industries, say observers. On the evening of Nov. 28, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) convened a first ministers’ meeting. Multiple premiers had called for...
The Liberals’ latest policy effort to inject new life into their moribund public opinion numbers—through rebate cheques and a GST break—appears “well intentioned” but “poorly executed,” says pollster Nik Nanos.Canadians may welcome the cash, but Nanos said that doesn’t mean they will offer the Liberal government their votes in exchange.
Legislation was only ‘the tip of the iceberg’ because it was ‘really light on details,’ says former Ontario PC staffer Carly Bergamini. ‘Now all of the hard work begins.’
Liberal MPs need to stop comparing Canada’s Conservatives to Donald Trump’s Republicans as that strategy is losing its persuasive power following the U.S. presidential election, say observers.Former Liberal staffer Olivier Cullen was among several strategists who advised the Liberal government to avoid such language.
The Quebec government’s decision to move ahead with advance requests for medical assistance in dying in defiance of the Criminal Code presents a political and legal “hornets’ nest” for federal parties, says a Quebec-based political scientist. “There’s clearly a lot of contentious debates” between Quebec City and Ottawa right now, particularly on immigration, said Laval University political science professor Thierry...
President-elect Donald Trump is someone who ‘carries a grudge,’ but Trudeau must find a way to ‘make the relationship work,’ say observers.
The attempt to oust the PM at caucus was ‘unorganized’ and ‘haphazard’ said ex-Liberal staffer Nick McRoberts, but other forms of pressure must be tried because the party can’t win with Trudeau. Meanwhile, pollster Greg Lyle says the longer the infighting continues, the better it is for opposition parties, especially the NDP.
Two-term B.C. Liberal MP Patrick Weiler read out a letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the party’s national caucus meeting on Oct. 28, telling the full Liberal caucus that 24 MPs have signed the document calling for the leader’s resignation by Oct. 28, according to Liberal sources. Weiler (West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, B.C.), who was unavailable for...
Having the mechanism would provide ‘more structure’ and make any decision ‘a bit more final,’ says Liberal MP John McKay. ‘It may not be a happy result’ but it would be a ‘clear expression’ of the will of caucus.
As sharp criticisms are levied at both the prime minister and opposition leader following a combative exchange on foreign interference, the controversy shows an “inherent flaw” in the way politicians use intelligence, says a former CSIS official. This week saw a display of “using intelligence reporting for partisan purposes,” said Dan Stanton, a former executive manager at the Canadian Security...
The growing assertiveness of Atlantic Liberals in expressing their concerns about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership shows they “have their finger on the pulse” of the clear electoral threat they face, says a Halifax-based pollster. Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research, told The Hill Times that Liberals have “a lot to lose” in the region, and a number of seats...
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent comments on electoral reform appear designed to mend fences with those he alienated when he broke a key 2015 campaign promise, say observers, but the message has missed the mark with one of the main groups advocating for changes to how Canadians vote.
The author of a book about how the federal Liberals dominated politics for most of Canadian history says the party is at a “breaking point” when it comes to maintaining that position. Richard Johnston, an emeritus political science professor at the University of British Columbia, and author of the book The Canadian Party System: An Analytic History, told The Hill...
With both advocates and opponents of medical assistance in dying at odds with Canada’s current MAID laws, the fight is shifting from Parliament back to the courts. On Sept. 26, a coalition of disability rights groups, alongside two individual plaintiffs, announced a Charter challenge of track two MAID—available to those whose death is not reasonably foreseeable—on the grounds that it...
As Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet amps up his pressure on the Liberal government, how his party leverages its newly influential position in Parliament will likely spur more interplay between federal and provincial counterparts in the coming months, say observers.
Elections Canada is preparing recommendations seeking to strengthen the security of nominations and leadership races, but so far the federal political parties seem to want to “kick the can down the road” rather than “fix it,” says national security expert Stephanie Carvin.
The parliamentary budget officer’s proposal calling for Ottawa’s year-end financial reports to be released on an earlier timeline is drawing praise from parliamentarians, but the government isn’t yet willing to commit to the advice.
In the wake of another “epic disaster” byelection, Liberals should be seriously concerned about the “doomsday scenario” of New Democrats passing them as the primary alternative to the Conservatives, as well as vote splits on the left delivering a “massive” Pierre Poilievre win, says pollster Nik Nanos “The Liberals have to realize that perhaps their first opponent is actually Jagmeet...
The lead researcher in a report debunking Conservative ties to a bot campaign backing Pierre Poilievre says politicians and the media should stick to verified information given the lag time to investigate the activity’s origins. Aengus Bridgman, director of the Media Ecosystem Observatory at McGill University, was the co-ordinating force behind a team of academics at multiple universities that analyzed...
To ensure free, fair, and transparent nomination contests, rank-and-file party members must communicate an unequivocal message to their respective leadership that they will not accept any interference from the top, say former candidates and party insiders.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s abrupt departure from his party’s deal with the Liberals will shorten the lifecycle of this Parliament, and put all political parties on a collision course when the House of Commons resumes in less than two weeks, say observers.
Policy announcements from the Liberal cabinet retreat are a “rear-guard action” aimed at “stealing their opponent’s thunder,” but fall short of “a unique Liberal vision” to move the country forward, says pollster Greg Lyle. The Liberals wrapped up a three-day cabinet retreat on Aug. 27 in Halifax, where several key policy announcements tackled similar issues or ideas to those highlighted...
Against the backdrop of a record number of Atlantic Canadians voicing dissatisfaction with the Liberal government’s performance, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet will gather in Halifax for a crucial three-day retreat.The retreat will focus on strategizing for the fall sitting of Parliament with key agenda items including the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement, and Canada-U.S. relations.
With pushback from the Teamsters union giving new legs to a labour disruption the Liberal government attempted to put to bed on Thursday, the matter risks becoming “another example of something that’s going sideways for the Liberals” on the eve of their cabinet retreat, says pollster Nik Nanos. “For a government that’s trailing in the double digits, its main fixation...
Persistent strain on Canada’s health-care system has led to a growing appetite for reform, but it’s unlikely any party would call for more private payment options because the political risk still far outweighs the reward, says pollster David Coletto. Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, recently conducted a poll on “third rails” in Canadian politics, looking at a variety of hot-button...
Investors’ nerves are beginning to settle after a rocky few days for markets in Canada and around the world, but the word “recession” creeping into the news is never a welcome sign for governments approaching an election, says pollster Nik Nanos. “A recession in the lead up or during an election campaign can be brutally devastating for any incumbent government,”...
After three consecutive landslide wins by outgoing former federal cabinet minister Seamus O’Regan, Liberals living on Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula are gearing up for some much tougher battles in that region in the next campaign, but they also believe they can hold the former minster’s seat. “There hasn’t been a competitive election in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl for 10 years,” said...
In the wake of Pierre Poilievre’s commitment to launch a tax-reform task force in the early days of a potential Conservative government, economists are split on what they think such a panel might—or should—do. In a June 11 video outlining his response to the government’s plan to hike the capital gains inclusion rate, Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.) committed to appointing a...
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing at least four more public tests of his leadership, with a “mixed bag” of upcoming byelections that could either shift a losing narrative or produce an “accumulation effect” of losses that cast further doubt on his future, say pollsters. The looming byelections—spread across four provinces \with different electoral dynamics—come in the wake of the...
Covertly placing narratives in Canadian media that forward the interests of foreign states is an “ultimate goal of foreign influence and information operations,” and the findings on this topic in two recent national security reports should be of top concern, says disinformation expert Marcus Kolga.
For the Trudeau government, the writing has been on the wall since November, and ‘despite their best efforts, they haven't been able to get up off the floor,’ says pollster Greg Lyle. The Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont., byelection has launched a fresh round of speculation about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future, with two former Liberal ministers warning of fatigue with the...
The Conservatives’ capture of the Toronto-St. Paul’s seat—a Liberal fortress for decades—shows “the polls have become a reality” for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with a Canadian population “hugely” interested in change, says pollster Darrell Bricker. “It brings into stark reality how steep and high the hill is that the Liberals have to climb to get competitive again,” Bricker told The...
Foreign interference has put a spotlight on longstanding concerns about the process for nominating political candidates, but so far the main federal parties are not committing to some key recommendations to address this security gap. Bill C-70, the government’s foreign interference bill—which received royal assent on June 20—will make some key changes, including making it a criminal offence to conduct...
The prospect of parliamentarians aiding foreign powers has captured near-total focus following an explosive foreign interference report, but the document also highlights larger policy issues that make Canada’s institutions “easy targets” for this activity—and says the government has been slow to act. The Special Report on Foreign Interference in Canada’s Democratic Processes and Institutions, authored by the National Security and...
Now that the Conservatives have come out against the capital gains tax hike, the political fallout from the Liberal wedge issue will come down to each party’s framing, and whether the tax motivates voters when they go to the polls. Just shy of two months after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) first unveiled proposed changes to the capital gains...
The Bank of Canada’s rate cut is welcome news for the Liberals, but not enough to change their political fortunes, say observers. After 10 straight interest rate hikes that began in March 2022 and culminated in July 2023—taking the rate from 0.25 per cent to five per cent—Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem announced on June 5 that the central...
A private citizen behind a complaint that has led to tighter privacy rules for political parties is calling a recent court ruling a “vindication,” while a former Conservative Party president says the decision leaves the country’s rules for political parties “balkanized,” and should be appealed.
The government’s attempts at reaching younger voters through a pre- and post-budget media blitz may not be delivering the results the Liberals had wanted.Alex Kohut, a former Liberal Party pollster and PMO staffer, told The Hill Times that polls show a slight uptick in awareness about the fiscal plan among younger voters when compared to previous years.
The timeline and funding for pharmacare laid out in last week’s federal budget points to a slow rollout plan, and a program that could easily be discontinued by a future government, say policy experts. The April 16 budget set aside just shy of $1.5-billion for pharmacare over five years. That includes $59-million to be spent in the current fiscal year...
Two narratives about the 2024 federal budget set out by the finance minister and opposition leader both reflect positions the “middle ground of Canada believes,” but “the Tories are riding the stronger horse” when it comes to these messages, says pollster Greg Lyle. On April 16, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) tabled her fourth budget in the House of...
A section of the government’s new electoral reform law that deals with privacy policies for political parties appears to be designed in response to coming litigation in B.C. involving Canada’s three largest political parties, but it ultimately does not create a more robust privacy regime for the parties to follow, say multiple legal and privacy experts consulted by The Hill...
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will ‘either walk up to the edge of the next election and run, or he'll walk up to the edge of the next election and decide to retire,' so until that time Liberals should focus on how to ‘get more competitive with the current prime minister,’ says former Martin-era Liberal PMO staffer Scott Reid.
When former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page thinks about what’s wrong with the process by which MPs scrutinize the government’s spending—a system that has been described by the current PBO as “unnecessarily complex”—he thinks about how his father might have looked at government finances if he had ever become an MP.
The Attorney General of Canada wants to see a B.C. court case involving federal political parties’ use of voter data sent back to the office of the B.C. privacy commissioner—a move which could further delay a resolution of the matter as the next federal election draws nearer.
Colleagues and friends of former prime minister Brian Mulroney are remembering him for his ability to rally his political allies to the causes he believed in, while also maintaining close personal relationships through a sense of kindness and charm that allowed him to meaningfully connect with even his adversaries.
Compromises made by both the Liberals and the NDP to achieve a pharmacare deal that’s light on details point to the relative weaknesses of both parties at this time, rather than either one having secured their preferred outcome in negotiations, says pollster Darrell Bricker. “Neither one wanted to have an election. You’ve got [NDP Leader] Jagmeet Singh saying, ‘Please do...
As the government rushes to push through legislation that would further delay legalizing medical assistance in dying for those suffering solely from mental illness until 2027, it could all come down to the will of the Senate. On Feb. 1, Health Minister Mark Holland (Ajax, Ont.) introduced legislation that would add a further three-year delay to the legalization of MAID...