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It's Sunday night and I'm updating this before the newsletter launches Monday morning. The world is still absorbing the U.S. lead airstrikes on Iran. There are still more unknowns than knowns. Like you, I'm watching and reading and listening to see what the next phase of this will look like. I have a deep, professional distrust of those who say...
Can PM's deal help the U.S. forge its own detente with Xi Jinping? Donald Trump barely shrugged when asked about the deal Prime Minister Mark Carney forged with China this week. The U.S. president said such a deal simply made sense. “Well, that's OK, that's what you should be doing. I mean, it's a good thing for him to sign...
Mark Carney is headed to China, where he's set to meet with President Xi Jingping. It will be the first visit to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. There is some optimism heading into this meeting. The biggest issues on the table are China's restrictions on Canadian canola products and Canada's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Much of...
Over the past few months, a single question has loomed over the economic landscape: Is Canada slipping into a recession? As the trade war bit deeper over the summer, the economy stalled. The unemployment rate climbed and economic growth repeatedly dipped into negative territory.
The 2025 federal budget plots a path for the Canadian economy to emerge from the current crisis. But it also highlights just how deep a hole the economy is in right now and how small the margin for error is as Canada navigates the perils of a trade war. “This budget must be generational in its ambition and serve to...
Interest rates can only do so much. So, pressure now turns to the federal budget. By just about every measure, Canada’s economy is stuck in a ditch. Growth has sputtered. The unemployment rate is rising. In normal times, the remedy is clear. The Bank of Canada cuts interest rates and the federal government boosts spending to help businesses and households...
We will have a much better sense by the end of this week if Canada is going to dodge a recession. GDP numbers for July will come out on Friday. Statistics Canada will also release a preliminary look at the data for August. We know the economy shrank 1.6 per cent in the second quarter of this year (April, May...
By just about every indicator, the U.S. economy is holding up remarkably well. When Donald Trump launched his global trade war, economists and markets said his tariff policy would slow the economy, drive up prices and dramatically reduce global trade. And yet, stocks are at all-time highs, the country's employment is strong, its economy is expanding and the expected surge...
We will keep our eyes firmly focused on the trade landscape again this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised a "flurry" of trade deals ahead of a July 9 deadline that could see global tariff rates increase sharply. Wednesday's deadline applies to all the countries caught up in the so-called Liberation Day tariffs. So, this particular tranche doesn't...
We are going to get the latest Canadian real estate numbers this week. It's going to be a regular housing-palooza out there. The stats kick off on Monday when the Canadian Real Estate Association releases the latest sales and price numbers. We will also get housing starts (how many new construction projects have begun) and Statistics Canada's New Home Price...
The worlds of economics and politics will collide again this week. Parliament is set to resume in a flourish of tradition and grandeur. There will be trumpets and red carpets and a King's speech to start the week. The economic news to wrap the week will be decidedly less celebratory. GDP numbers are going to refocus the conversation on economic...
At the outset of this campaign, I said the election was about a number of things: tariffs and trade and Trump and threats. But at its heart, it was about the economy. Whoever wins this thing will have an incredibly difficult task ahead. Whichever party forms government will have to take immediate steps to grow the economy. I wrote a...
There's just a week left in this election. This time next Monday, we will be getting ready to vote. At the outset, I wrote about the economic question at the heart of this election. The issue, as I saw it then, was how best to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. But embedded in that question is a deeper one...
I started writing this newsletter as a way of framing and better understanding how the events of the week ahead were going to shape the conversation. But events are happening at a breakneck speed right now. So the last few editions have been focused on the impact those events are having. But this week, we have the Bank of Canada...
The hard part about conflict is finding an exit ramp once it starts. It's as true for schoolyard fist fights as it is for global trade wars. As the global order the world spent 70 years building up started to unravel last week, I found myself wondering what the path to de-escalation will look like. Stephen Gordon, an economics professor...
It feels like we've been building to this week. Ever since U.S. President Donald Trump was elected, we've been waiting for a moment when his broad plan about tariffs is put forward. He initially said it would happen on inauguration day, then the first day of February. That was delayed to the 4th of February.
This Canadian election is about a lot of things. It’s about trade and tariffs and threats and sovereignty. It’s about anger and disappointment and frustration. But if you zoom out, it’s about the economy. There are two key questions voters will have to answer for themselves. One is, who is best to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump...
It's going to be another weird week, so hold onto your hats. If you've had a hard time keeping track of all the various tariff threats and deadlines, you are not alone. My colleague Alex Panetta has a handy guide for what threats come due on what dates here. This week, we face the first hurdle. U.S. President Donald Trump...
Numbers out this week will show just how precarious a footing Canada's economy is on as it braces for a trade war. GDP growth has been meagre at best for a while now. GDP expanded by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter (July, August and September) after rising 0.5 per cent in the first two quarters of the year.
It's remarkable how quickly the things we worried about can change. For years now, inflation was the most important thing on the economic landscape. Now, it's tariffs and the threats emanating from the White House. Those tariffs will have a weird impact on inflation.
On Sunday as many were hunkering down to watch the Super Bowl, Donald Trump launched his latest salvo in the looming trade wars. This time he threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum entering the U.S. We have almost no other details and we'll see what specifically is done, when it will come into effect...
Canadian businesses and policy makers are still reeling from the whirlwind that came with Donald Trump's threatened tariffs and, on Monday, his 30-day pause. But it's clear — free trade and its proponents are facing a rough road ahead. And though the U.S. president may be the loudest and most existential threat to free trade, he's definitely not alone.
This weekend was a whirlwind. I was among those who didn't believe Donald Trump was going to go ahead with the tariffs. We aren't yet there, but we are one giant step closer. I know the question we all have revolves around how deep this will cut and what part of my pocketbook will feel it first.
The Bank of Canada has a tricky decision to make this week. It's expected to cut interest rates yet again, bringing the key overnight lending rate all the way back to three per cent. The tricky part is in laying out where it goes from here.
I wish I had a better sense of how this week is going to go. I'm not alone. For months now, Canada (and the world) has been living under the threat of tariffs that would be a catastrophe. Today, we will see what Donald Trump really means.
Donald Trump is threatening steep tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. from Canada, Mexico and China. They'll be in place until the countries stop the flow of migrants and drugs illegally entering the U.S., Trump said. Mexico and China have threatened to respond in kind. Businesses, economists and policymakers are trying to figure out how much of this is...
Here we go again. Canadian industries are bracing for chaos, discord and, above all, tariffs. Donald Trump's sweeping presidential election victory this week sets the stage for a series of obstacles to trade between Canada and its biggest trading partner. But for those who spent much of Trump's first term defending Canadian interests in a trade war, there is an...
Canada's real estate market is notoriously unhinged. Home prices are up more than 35 per cent in just four years. Mortgage interest costs are up 30.9 per cent year over year. And rental prices are continually hitting record highs. As inflation comes under control, there is a growing chorus calling on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates, easing...
Shipping traffic through the Red Sea has "plummeted" as Houthi militants step up their attacks on vessels in the region. American-led airstrikes have done little to deter the disruption and now the CEO of one of the biggest shipping companies in the world says the disruption will probably last at least a few months.