Philippe J. Fournier

Philippe J. Fournier

338 Sunday Update: Conservatives Losing Ground. Not a Liberal surge - that came last winter - but a steady erosion of CPC support is widening the gap.

Fresh off a by-election sweep and a newly formed (if thin) majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals have increased their lead over the Conservatives in recent days—not because Liberal support has surged, but because the Conservatives have slipped further back in the aggregate. In our latest episode of The Numbers (recorded Thursday morning), Eric and I discussed...

Philippe J. Fournier

Carneymania Sweeps the Country. Yes, Even Quebec and Alberta

A LITTLE LESS THAN a year after the April 2025 federal election, public opinion data continues to break strongly in favour of Mark Carney’s Liberal government. The latest federal poll by Leger suggests the Liberal Party now holds a substantial lead in voting intentions. The survey, conducted from February 27 to March 2 among 1,627 respondents, puts the Liberals at...

Philippe J. Fournier

Conservatives Are Competitive. Pierre Poilievre Isn’t

PIERRE POILIEVRE GAMBLED with his political future—and won—at the Conservative Party of Canada convention in Calgary two weeks ago. Delegates, who gathered under unseasonably warm January skies courtesy of a timely Chinook, were asked whether to grant their leader a vote of confidence. Late that Friday night, the verdict was delivered: 87.4 percent of those who cast a ballot voted...

Philippe J. Fournier

Poilievre’s Numbers Slip as Leadership Review Nears

Party support remains (mostly) stable, but new polling shows a deterioration in the Conservative leader’s personal standing.

Philippe J. Fournier

Most Quebecers Oppose Sovereignty. Even More Reject Another Referendum

QUEBEC POLLS IN RECENT years—decades, even—have consistently shown that if a referendum on sovereignty were held today, a clear majority of voters would vote against it.

Philippe J. Fournier

The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma

POLL ANALYSTS will caution that “we need more data” when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don’t get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters.

Philippe J. Fournier

Nanos Tracker: Carney Maintains Wide Lead on Preferred PM

The weekly Nanos tracker has been remarkably stable over the past two months—especially when it comes to the question of preferred Prime Minister. The latest update, released Tuesday, shows 51% of Canadians choosing Mark Carney as their top pick for the job, compared to just 25% for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Here’s the full trend since the April election:

Philippe J. Fournier

Doug Ford Is Now the Most Popular Conservative in Canada. As Poilievre slips in the polls, could Ontario’s premier be the right’s backup plan?

As Poilievre slips in the polls, could Ontario’s premier be the right’s backup plan? A NEW Pollara survey gauging Canadians’ perceptions of provincial premiers is bound to spark chatter this summer—especially within Conservative circles.

Philippe J. Fournier

Carney’s Surge in Quebec Could Wipe the Sovereigntist Party Off the Map

SEASONED POLITICAL OBSERVERS will tell you that their circles—relatives, friends, colleagues—can often double as informal focus groups. By talking politics with real people, and not just those with their noses pressed against the glass, you can sometimes detect early signs of trends, however noisy they may be in a world where media cycles constantly overlap.

Philippe J. Fournier

Pierre Poilievre’s Lead Was Supposed to Be Unshakable. It Isn’t

EVENTS, DEAR BOY,” then UK prime minister Harold Macmillan once said when asked what the greatest challenge for a statesman was. Never underestimate how events can shape—and reshape—public opinion quickly.

Philippe J. Fournier

Trump’s Return Could Make Trudeau Look Smaller than Ever

THE ROAD AHEAD will not get any easier for the Trudeau Liberals. With Donald Trump set to retake residence in the White House in January—likely backed by Republican majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives—a weakened Liberal government in Ottawa will have its hands full during what polling indicates may be its final months in power.

Philippe J. Fournier

Liberal Free Fall Fuels Quebec Sovereignty

AFTER LOSING the by-election in the Toronto–St. Paul’s riding in June, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals took another blow in the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (LÉV) by-election on September 16. Like St. Paul’s, LÉV was once considered a stronghold of the Liberals: in the 2021 federal election, the Liberal Party had won this southwestern Montreal riding by more than twenty percentage points...

Philippe J. Fournier

The Fall of François Legault

IN JUNE, a Quebec poll from Pallas Data measured the favourability of four permanent provincial party leaders. The names tested in the questionnaire were Premier François Legault of the Coalition Avenir Québec, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois of Québec solidaire, and Éric Duhaime of the Conservative Party of Quebec. (The Quebec Liberal Party was not included...

Philippe J. Fournier

Léger: Conservatives making inroads in Quebec

A new Quebec-only Léger poll was released Wednesday in Le Journal de Montréal, and while the provincial numbers caught most of the media’s attention (and for good reason, as François Legault and the once-mighty CAQ has taken a devastating hit in public opinion), the poll’s federal numbers showed rather interesting divides — both regional and generational.

Philippe J. Fournier, Curtis Fric

338 Sunday Update: Conservatives Maintain Their Lead

How The Week Has Gone. As we round out the month of November, the Conservatives remain firmly ahead of their Liberal rivals in national polling. In a rise that first started in August, the Tories have managed to maintain their wide berth from the Liberals, seeing their seat count remain over the 200-seat mark while the Liberals remain more than...