Poilievre’s Numbers Slip as Leadership Review Nears
Party support remains (mostly) stable, but new polling shows a deterioration in the Conservative leader’s personal standing.
Philippe J. Fournier
While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from Philippe J. Fournier.
Most Quebecers Oppose Sovereignty. Even More Reject Another Referendum
QUEBEC POLLS IN RECENT years—decades, even—have consistently shown that if a referendum on sovereignty were held today, a clear majority of voters would vote against it.
The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma
POLL ANALYSTS will caution that “we need more data” when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don’t get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters.
Nanos Tracker: Carney Maintains Wide Lead on Preferred PM
The weekly Nanos tracker has been remarkably stable over the past two months—especially when it comes to the question of preferred Prime Minister. The latest update, released Tuesday, shows 51% of Canadians choosing Mark Carney as their top pick for the job, compared to just 25% for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Here’s the full trend since the April election:
Doug Ford Is Now the Most Popular Conservative in Canada. As Poilievre slips in the polls, could Ontario’s premier be the right’s backup plan?
As Poilievre slips in the polls, could Ontario’s premier be the right’s backup plan? A NEW Pollara survey gauging Canadians’ perceptions of provincial premiers is bound to spark chatter this summer—especially within Conservative circles.
Carney’s Surge in Quebec Could Wipe the Sovereigntist Party Off the Map
SEASONED POLITICAL OBSERVERS will tell you that their circles—relatives, friends, colleagues—can often double as informal focus groups. By talking politics with real people, and not just those with their noses pressed against the glass, you can sometimes detect early signs of trends, however noisy they may be in a world where media cycles constantly overlap.
Pierre Poilievre’s Lead Was Supposed to Be Unshakable. It Isn’t
EVENTS, DEAR BOY,” then UK prime minister Harold Macmillan once said when asked what the greatest challenge for a statesman was. Never underestimate how events can shape—and reshape—public opinion quickly.
Trump’s Return Could Make Trudeau Look Smaller than Ever
THE ROAD AHEAD will not get any easier for the Trudeau Liberals. With Donald Trump set to retake residence in the White House in January—likely backed by Republican majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives—a weakened Liberal government in Ottawa will have its hands full during what polling indicates may be its final months in power.
Liberal Free Fall Fuels Quebec Sovereignty
AFTER LOSING the by-election in the Toronto–St. Paul’s riding in June, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals took another blow in the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (LÉV) by-election on September 16. Like St. Paul’s, LÉV was once considered a stronghold of the Liberals: in the 2021 federal election, the Liberal Party had won this southwestern Montreal riding by more than twenty percentage points...
The Fall of François Legault
IN JUNE, a Quebec poll from Pallas Data measured the favourability of four permanent provincial party leaders. The names tested in the questionnaire were Premier François Legault of the Coalition Avenir Québec, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois of Québec solidaire, and Éric Duhaime of the Conservative Party of Quebec. (The Quebec Liberal Party was not included...
Léger: Conservatives making inroads in Quebec
A new Quebec-only Léger poll was released Wednesday in Le Journal de Montréal, and while the provincial numbers caught most of the media’s attention (and for good reason, as François Legault and the once-mighty CAQ has taken a devastating hit in public opinion), the poll’s federal numbers showed rather interesting divides — both regional and generational.
338 Sunday Update: Conservatives Maintain Their Lead
How The Week Has Gone. As we round out the month of November, the Conservatives remain firmly ahead of their Liberal rivals in national polling. In a rise that first started in August, the Tories have managed to maintain their wide berth from the Liberals, seeing their seat count remain over the 200-seat mark while the Liberals remain more than...