While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from Allan Gregg.
Foreign policy, international affairs and Canada’s role in the world have rarely been top-of-mind concerns for most Canadians. There have been some exceptions. Wilfrid Laurier won the 1911 election by rejecting the Conservative government’s proposal for a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States. 77 years later, Brian Mulroney was re-elected while endorsing a fairly similar proposal. The terrorist attack...
Some people have declared the decision to have King Charles III read the Speech from the Throne is an inspired, attention-grabbing gesture that will signal to a recalcitrant White House a powerful example of Canada’s distinctiveness and sovereignty. Another interpretation is that it is a meaningless symbol sent to an indifferent public, that runs counter and is tone deaf to...
When the federal election campaign was underway, the Star invited two eminent pollsters — David Coletto of Abacus Data and Allan Gregg of Earnscliffe Strategies — to discuss what they’ve learned from the election results. Here’s what they had to say:
There are many reasons why Mark Carney became the prime minister of Canada — and one of the biggest is Mark Carney himself. While perhaps initially more a consequence of luck than talent, Donald Trump’s threats towards Canada changed the terms of the election.
By now, it is pretty clear that the 25-point lead Pierre Poilievre enjoyed in the polls a mere four months ago had very little to do with him. He looked like a shoo-in to be the Prime Minister of Canada because he faced an extremely unpopular opponent and was catering to a very disgruntled electorate who were focused on their...
Without pretending any of us can predict the exact outcome of elections before they actually occur, if the polls and pundits prove right, the most likely scenario we will wake up to on Tuesday is a Liberal majority government. Larger trends from nation-wide and regional polling indicate this will occur due to the collapse of NDP and Bloc Quebecois support...
The dynamics of this election campaign have been nothing if not unusual. Consider, for example, that the Liberals’ remarkable ascent has had very little to do with the flagging fortunes of their Conservative rivals — and plenty to do with the near-collapse of the NDP and Bloc Québécois. Support for the independantistes has declined almost exclusively due to threats from...
It is nearly impossible to win a federal election unless you are able to attract two key constituencies of “swing voters” — blue collar workers and new Canadians. This formula has been the key to the Liberals’ success and the Conservatives’ failure in the last three federal elections and has reshaped how all parties campaign.
If you were a betting person and wanted to place a wager on the upcoming federal election, my advice would be to keep your money in your pocket — at least for the time being. Forget, for a moment, the wild polling swings of the past two months. Go a little deeper into the numbers, and you’ll find more important...
Most analysis of elections includes some discussion of the so-called “ballot question” — namely, the question the various political parties try to convince voters they are answering when they cast their ballots. Underlying this strategy is the belief that some questions will offer an advantage for one party over the others.
Professional gamblers accept that you play with the cards you are dealt. That maxim, of course, dictates that you can’t control what cards are in your hand; the measure of your talent is the strategy you devise as the game goes on. The political deck has been shuffled in Canada and the Liberals and Conservatives are now holding very different...
As a pollster, I must confess that I was shocked by the results of last week’s Ontario election. Not by who won, but by who came in second and third. There’s a lesson in the result — one the federal Liberals should be paying close attention to as they prepare for a likely imminent election. That lesson? The common wisdom...
Within political circles it is now pretty much taken as a given that you cannot win an Ontario (or for that matter, federal) election without capturing a significant portion of the population’s blue-collar workers and new Canadians, living in the suburbs. Historically, both constituencies were reliably in the camp of either the Liberal or New Democratic Party. No more, as...
Typically, calling an early election that appears to be both unnecessary and opportunist does not go well for an incumbent. Both David Peterson and Justin Trudeau were ahead in the polls when they voluntarily shortened their terms: Peterson went down to outright defeat in 1990 while Trudeau returned a status quo Parliament that looked pretty much like it did before...