Allan Gregg

Allan Gregg

King Charles’ throne speech delivery was lauded as inspired. But Carney still has to deal with this one issue the speech didn’t address

Some people have declared the decision to have King Charles III read the Speech from the Throne is an inspired, attention-grabbing gesture that will signal to a recalcitrant White House a powerful example of Canada’s distinctiveness and sovereignty. Another interpretation is that it is a meaningless symbol sent to an indifferent public, that runs counter and is tone deaf to...

David Coletto, Allan Gregg

Two pollsters talk about why they think Carney could be a transformational leader

When the federal election campaign was underway, the Star invited two eminent pollsters — David Coletto of Abacus Data and Allan Gregg of Earnscliffe Strategies — to discuss what they’ve learned from the election results. Here’s what they had to say:

Allan Gregg

What’s behind Mark Carney’s aggressive rhetoric toward Donald Trump?

There are many reasons why Mark Carney became the prime minister of Canada — and one of the biggest is Mark Carney himself. While perhaps initially more a consequence of luck than talent, Donald Trump’s threats towards Canada changed the terms of the election.

Allan Gregg

Pierre Poilievre needs to stay as leader of the Conservative Party. Here’s why

By now, it is pretty clear that the 25-point lead Pierre Poilievre enjoyed in the polls a mere four months ago had very little to do with him. He looked like a shoo-in to be the Prime Minister of Canada because he faced an extremely unpopular opponent and was catering to a very disgruntled electorate who were focused on their...

Allan Gregg

What kind of leadership will Canada have on Tuesday? Here are four different scenarios

Without pretending any of us can predict the exact outcome of elections before they actually occur, if the polls and pundits prove right, the most likely scenario we will wake up to on Tuesday is a Liberal majority government. Larger trends from nation-wide and regional polling indicate this will occur due to the collapse of NDP and Bloc Quebecois support...

Allan Gregg

The NDP is not going to win the election. But no one is forcing it to lose so badly

The dynamics of this election campaign have been nothing if not unusual. Consider, for example, that the Liberals’ remarkable ascent has had very little to do with the flagging fortunes of their Conservative rivals — and plenty to do with the near-collapse of the NDP and Bloc Québécois. Support for the independantistes has declined almost exclusively due to threats from...

Allan Gregg

Pierre Poilievre has a problem with women. Mark Carney has a problem with men

It is nearly impossible to win a federal election unless you are able to attract two key constituencies of “swing voters” — blue collar workers and new Canadians. This formula has been the key to the Liberals’ success and the Conservatives’ failure in the last three federal elections and has reshaped how all parties campaign.

Allan Gregg

Carney is winning — but don’t bet against a Poilievre comeback

If you were a betting person and wanted to place a wager on the upcoming federal election, my advice would be to keep your money in your pocket — at least for the time being. Forget, for a moment, the wild polling swings of the past two months. Go a little deeper into the numbers, and you’ll find more important...

Allan Gregg

Barring another crisis upset, the ballot question of our next federal election is set. And it’s advantage, Carney

Most analysis of elections includes some discussion of the so-called “ballot question” — namely, the question the various political parties try to convince voters they are answering when they cast their ballots. Underlying this strategy is the belief that some questions will offer an advantage for one party over the others.

Allan Gregg

Poilievre and Carney have been dealt new hands. Here’s how they should play them

Professional gamblers accept that you play with the cards you are dealt. That maxim, of course, dictates that you can’t control what cards are in your hand; the measure of your talent is the strategy you devise as the game goes on. The political deck has been shuffled in Canada and the Liberals and Conservatives are now holding very different...

Allan Gregg

We pollsters missed something big in the Ontario election. The federal Liberals should pay attention

As a pollster, I must confess that I was shocked by the results of last week’s Ontario election. Not by who won, but by who came in second and third. There’s a lesson in the result — one the federal Liberals should be paying close attention to as they prepare for a likely imminent election. That lesson? The common wisdom...

Allan Gregg

Ontario’s election was another disastrous showing for progressive parties. Time for a rethink

Within political circles it is now pretty much taken as a given that you cannot win an Ontario (or for that matter, federal) election without capturing a significant portion of the population’s blue-collar workers and new Canadians, living in the suburbs. Historically, both constituencies were reliably in the camp of either the Liberal or New Democratic Party. No more, as...

Allan Gregg

Allan Gregg: Doug Ford has a shot at becoming Ontario’s greatest premier. Will he squander the chance?

Typically, calling an early election that appears to be both unnecessary and opportunist does not go well for an incumbent. Both David Peterson and Justin Trudeau were ahead in the polls when they voluntarily shortened their terms: Peterson went down to outright defeat in 1990 while Trudeau returned a status quo Parliament that looked pretty much like it did before...