While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from David Coletto.
Tomorrow is Election Day in Canada. Months ago, the outcome looked fairly certain – a Conservative victory. But today, as we release our final poll of the campaign, it looks like the Liberals are now the favourites to pull off a fourth straight victory under the leadership of Mark Carney. After 40 turbulent days, Canada’s 45th general election comes down...
Every successful campaign starts with a clear sense of purpose. Too often, when people hear “message,” they think it means a slogan or a handful of talking points. But a campaign message is far more than a tagline—it’s the central argument, the foundational story a party is telling voters about why it deserves their trust and their vote. It’s the...
With just days left before election day, the 2025 Canadian general election has become something few anticipated: a genuinely competitive race. What once looked like a near-certain Conservative victory has given way to Mark Carney’s Liberals now holding a narrow but meaningful lead. Back in January, just 12 per cent of Canadians said the Justin Trudeau Liberals deserved re-election. Meanwhile...
In our most recent national survey, we asked Canadians a simple but revealing question: “Now, imagine you were describing each of the following people to a child and you wanted to tell that child how these people are like—the kind of person they are. What three words would you use?”
With less than a week to go in the campaign, a new poll from Abacus Data finds the Liberals leading by 3 among those who have already voted and are committed and by 5 among those who have voted and are certain to vote. This survey was conducted entirely after the two leaders’ debates held last week and interviewed 2,00...
If you’ve followed our polling during this campaign, you’ll know we’ve gone beyond the usual vote intention numbers. Yes, we track the horserace. But to really understand where this election is going—and why—we’ve asked Canadians more questions than any other pollster: about what they care about, what they fear, what they hope for, and what they believe. And what’s emerged...
With just one week to go, the 2025 federal election has become something no one fully expected even a few months ago: a referendum on how much risk Canadians are willing to take in a world turned upside down.
As we enter the final stretch of the 2025 federal election campaign, a generational divide has opened up in Canadian politics—one that’s not just visible in the polling numbers, but audible in the voices of voters themselves. In a recent Abacus Data survey, we asked Canadians to explain—in their own words—why they’re voting the way they are. No prompts. No...
At 8:30 p.m. Eastern, as the English‑language leaders’ debate was close to wrapping up in Montréal, our team at Abacus Data pushed a national, English‑only survey into field. Within roughly ninety minutes we captured responses from a representative sample of 1,200 Canadian adults. We asked every participant whether they had watched “all or most,” “some,” or “a little” of the...
With the English-language leaders’ debate now in the rear-view mirror, the 2025 federal election campaign moves into its most important phase: the closing week.
Two weeks out from election day, the story many expected to be writing by now—about Pierre Poilievre’s march to victory—hasn’t materialized. Despite years of strong polling, a Prime Minister with record-low approval, and a party machine firing on all cylinders, the Conservative Party now finds itself trailing the Liberals in every major publicly released poll, including ours, where the gap...
With less than two weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls on April 28, our most recent Abacus Data survey (conducted on April 14 and 15) provides an updated snapshot of the race as party leaders prepare for two pivotal debates: the French-language Leaders’ Debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow. This smaller sample, quick turnaround poll serves...
As Canadians grapple with the ongoing uncertainties triggered by the Trump administration’s tariff threats and potential economic fallout, there is broad recognition that our country must find new ways to expand its economy and create good-paying jobs. From coast to coast, people believe Canada must seize every opportunity to secure its economic future. Whether by reducing interprovincial trade barriers or...
Something significant has happened to the NDP vote in this federal election. A party that, for much of the past two years, consistently held between 18% and 20% support now finds itself with just 9% of the committed vote, according to our latest Abacus Data survey conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025. That’s a collapse—one of the most dramatic...
I spend a lot of time digging into our Abacus Data polling data, looking at trends, understanding the relationship between variables. Imagine a chef in a kitchen testing out new recipes. That’s me in a dataset, and I love it!
At about the three-week mark of the campaign, a new Abacus Data poll conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025 finds the Liberals holding a 4-point lead over the Conservatives. We see not only a shift in raw vote intention but a broader convergence of factors—leader impressions, expectations of who will form the next government, and top-of-mind issues—that now firmly...
As Canadians prepare to tune into the federal Leaders’ Debates next week—April 16 in French and April 17 in English—new data from Abacus Data finds they are coming with a clear set of expectations about what the leaders should talk about. We asked 1,800 Canadians surveyed from April 7 to 10, 2025 to choose up to five issues they believe...
With just two weeks left in the campaign, the data suggests Mark Carney and the Liberal Party are within striking distance of defying expectations if just a few months ago and pulling off a fourth straight election win. While many observers had written off the Liberals, new analysis offers a more nuanced picture—one that highlights the opportunity ahead for Carney...
Halfway through the federal election campaign, it’s safe to say that things have not unfolded as many predicted they would back in January, when then-prime minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation. At the time, there was widespread talk that the Liberals were bound to falter and that the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were well-positioned to make significant gains. Yet...
At about the halfway point of the campaign, a new poll conducted entirely after Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs last week finds the Liberals opening up a six point lead over the Conservatives. The survey of 1,900 Canadian adults was conducted from April 3 to 8, 2025.
Between March 20 and 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. This wave explores how emotional drivers are shaping vote intentions and leadership preferences in the lead-up to the election. As affordability pressures and global instability dominate public discourse, Canadians are increasingly dividing along two emotional lines...
My nephew Julian is eight. He doesn’t watch the news, doesn’t read newspapers, and hasn’t even heard of Peter Mansbridge. But two months ago, he marched into the kitchen and told my sister, with full conviction, “Carbon Tax Carney. If Carney wins, Canada loses.” Word for word. The line from a Conservative ad he saw on YouTube. He has no...
As we enter the third week of the 2025 federal campaign—and just days after “Liberation Day” (April 2), when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs—our latest Abacus Data poll provides a snapshot of the race at its midpoint. The overall top-line numbers remain remarkably stable, yet beneath the surface we observe important shifts in voter...
Between November 6 and 18, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 4,001 Canadian adults (18+) to explore public perceptions of the housing market. Commissioned by Mattamy Homes Canada, this study looks at how Canadians feel about housing affordability, accessibility, and the role of governments, developers, and other stakeholders in addressing the crisis. The findings reveal widespread concern: a significant...
The Canadian public is facing significant uncertainty as the new U.S. administration disrupts geopolitical norms. Key issues in the ongoing federal election include the trade dispute between Canada and the United States and concerns over Canada’s territorial integrity. One topic that combines all these ongoing issues is the federal spending on Canada’s defence. In recent weeks, media outlets have focused...
Between March 17 and 20, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. As part of this, we developed the Abacus Data Precarity Index, a measure used to categorize Canadians based on their level of confidence in the future. The index ranges from those who feel secure and resilient...
Yesterday’s announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that Canada would be excluded from his sweeping new round of reciprocal tariffs appears, at first glance, to be a welcome reprieve for Canadian industry. But the reality is more complicated. While we’ve dodged the latest bullet, previously announced tariffs—particularly on autos, steel, and aluminum—remain a threat. Politically, the question becomes: does this...
In this second week of the federal campaign, the question on many people’s minds is why the Liberals—under their new leader and Prime Minister, Mark Carney—seem poised for re‑election. Our latest polling suggests they’re currently the favourites to clinch another victory. But beyond public sentiment, we also have some more advanced analytical tools that help to paint a clearer picture...
In the heat of a federal election campaign, with Donald Trump once again occupying the White House and making noise and consistent threats about tariffs and even annexation of Canadian territory, patriotic fervour in Canada is on the rise. Parties are campaigning with slogans of “Canada Strong” and “Canada First”. You’d think that in such a moment of national self-reflection...
As the first week of Canada’s 2025 general election comes to an end, our latest Abacus Data survey—our third poll of the campaign—finds the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck nationally, with each party securing 39% of the committed vote among all eligible voters.
As we come to the end of the first week of this high‐stakes, highly consequential Canadian general election campaign, many Conservative supporters—and a fair number of commentators—have been urging Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party to dramatically pivot. Their argument is straightforward: with Donald Trump ramping up threats against Canada, it seems logical for the Conservatives to seize the moment...
In political campaigns, voters’ choices often hinge on how well they feel a party understands their needs, addresses their most pressing concerns, and reflects their values. On our latest Abacus Data election survey, I gave respondents an opportunity to explain, in their own words, why they are planning to vote a certain way. In this piece, I focus specifically on...
Political campaigns are about more than promises; they are about perceptions. Voters carry in their minds a picture of what a leader will do once in office. That perception is then measured against another all-important question: should they do it? The answers to both questions—will they and should they—colour not only election outcomes but the tone and substance of national...
Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls. Liberals take a numerical lead for the first time since...
Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls.
It’s Week 1 of the federal election campaign, and Canadians are already asking the usual question: “Who’s up, and who’s down?” Beyond the shifting poll numbers and daily headlines, however, there are often less obvious survey results worth focusing on. This week, let’s focus on three that explain why Mark Carney and the Liberals have continued to extend their lead...
We’re at a turning point in Canadian public opinion: once defined by a scarcity mindset—where rising housing costs, healthcare strains, and job insecurity forced many to scramble for essentials—our collective outlook is now shifting toward something else: precarity. While concerns around what is available today still matter, the fear that core systems (healthcare, housing, social services) may fail is raising...
With the election campaign now underway, one overarching question looms: is this a campaign about change and scarcity, or about security in a time of deep precarity? Our latest polling points to a country wrestling with competing impulses—on one hand, a strong desire for a shift in direction; on the other, a fear of disruption in a period of uncertainty...
As we kick off the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign, it’s instructive to look back at where we stood at the start of the 2021 race. Although that campaign feels like it only just wrapped up, so much has changed in four years—both in the broader national mood and in the political landscape itself.
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw...
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw...
After months of speculation, a federal election appears imminent. Prime Minister Mark Carney, only recently installed as Liberal leader, is likely to seek the Governor General’s approval to dissolve Parliament any day now. This moment arrives after a series of political upheavals few could have predicted even a few months ago. But if you look closely, four main factors have...
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday. We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in...
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday. We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in...
Canada is on the cusp of a federal election featuring two relatively fresh faces: Prime Minister Mark Carney, newly at the helm of the Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre leading the Conservatives. While both men arrive with distinct backgrounds and approaches, their contest appears to be shaping up as a close one. Recent survey findings underscore just how narrow the...
Starting in 2025, the new US administration confronted the Canadian public with all sorts of threats. We detected in recent polls that the looming tariff issues are top-of-mind for many Canadians. Over the last couple of weeks, different media outlets (e.g., The Economist, Toronto Star, National Post or CBC) floated the idea of a possible Canadian membership to the European...
Over the past week, I’ve been taking a closer look at what is holding back the NDP in the eyes of potential voters. Based on survey data I collected with Abacus Data, I asked Canadians who would consider voting NDP but currently aren’t planning to do so what their main hesitation was. The results were quite revealing, particularly when we...
Over the past month on this site, I’ve examined how Justin Trudeau’s resignation, the looming election of a new Liberal leader, and Donald Trump’s return to the world stage have reshaped the Canadian political landscape. The objective here is to bring together all these strands—ranging from Pierre Poilievre’s electoral appeal to Mark Carney’s policy gambles—and synthesize them into one coherent...
For the past few years, Canadians have navigated a scarcity mindset, shaped by housing shortages, rising costs, strained healthcare, and job insecurity. This competition for essential resources fueled frustration, shifting views on immigration, climate change, and housing, driving many voters away from the Trudeau-led Liberals in search of relief. Now, we see a new mindset emerging – one defined by...
Imagine, for a moment, that Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May, and Mark Carney all had a ballot in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Who would they have voted for—Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? This was one of the more unconventional questions we asked 1,000 Canadian adults in a national Abacus Data survey conducted from February 27 to...
In my latest Abacus Data survey, 41% of committed voters say they would vote Conservative. That’s down 4-points from two weeks ago but still a share of the vote that would deliver a majority government. So what factors explain someone’s support for the Conservatives today? That’s the question this piece set out to answer, particularly in light of growing economic...
From February 20 to 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults.We find that the horse race continues to tighten as perceptions and impressions shift. The opinion landscape is evolving and looks quite different than the one we have seen over the previous 18 months.Here is what we see:
On February 24 and 25, 2025, we conducted our final poll of the 2025 Ontario provincial election with a representative online survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our fourth survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star. Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs are headed towards a big majority government, increasing...
Over the past few weeks, the Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre have amplified their social media presence with a barrage of posts and targeted ads. Whether it’s clips of Pierre Poilievre in a TV studio denouncing “Liberal insiders,” or tweets accusing Mark Carney of being “just like Justin,” the messaging is direct and unambiguous: the Conservatives want Canadians to see...
There’s an undeniable spirit among Canadians right now: most of us (84%) feel deeply connected to a greater Canadian identity. When we think about what defines that identity, we talk about kindness, respect for diversity, and a sense of unity. We’re proud of our universal healthcare, our peaceful reputation, and the freedoms we enjoy. At the same time, nearly six...
Everything is about Donald Trump these days. In our issue tracking, he has become the second most cited issue. And the threat he poses to Canadians and the anxiety his decisions are creating puts immense pressure on political leaders to find the right tone, approach, and behaviour in response. Our latest survey of 3,000 Canadian adults (February 5–11, 2025) reveals...
From February 13 to 15, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our third urvey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star. Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites but what was once a very large lead over the Liberals and NDP has...
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party will hold a big rally in Ottawa today, drawing supporters from across Ontario and beyond for a major rally on Flag Day. Behind the applause, however, lies a more complicated national mood about Poilievre and his chances of broadening the party’s appeal. Recent survey data suggests Canadians remain sharply divided about the Conservative leader—a...
If you’ve been watching Canadian politics over the last few weeks, you might think the defining generational split is all about Millennials and Gen Z at the forefront of change. But dig into the data—and the current political climate—and it quickly becomes clear that it’s the Baby Boomers (60 years old and up) who are driving the latest shifts in...