While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from David Coletto.
This latest wave of research finds a political environment that remains largely unchanged from late March, even as the political context becomes more dynamic. With the Liberal Party meeting in Montreal for its national convention, three federal by-elections approaching, and ongoing global instability, including conflict in Iran and rising oil prices, the underlying structure of public opinion appears steady.
After a period of relative stability, the latest wave of Abacus Data’s Ontario tracking finds renewed movement in the province’s political landscape, driven by a notable drop in Progressive Conservative support, continued erosion in Premier Doug Ford’s personal standing, and a meaningful uptick for the NDP. While the PCs remain in first place, their advantage has narrowed and the broader...
Between March 19 and 24, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,515 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This latest wave of research finds a political environment that remains largely unchanged from earlier in March. The Liberals continue to hold a clear national advantage, underlying attitudes about the government are steady, and the broader context shaping public opinion shows little meaningful movement.
As the Ontario government considers changes to the province’s freedom of information (FOI) framework, the debate has quickly become about more than administrative reform. At its core is a broader question about transparency, accountability, and how much access the public should have to the inner workings of government.
Across North America, the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure has begun to collide with public concerns about energy use, environmental impact, and who ultimately benefits.
After several months of declining approval and a narrowing political environment, the Ford government appears to have stabilized. The Progressive Conservatives continue to lead comfortably on vote intention. The Ontario Liberals remain firmly in second place despite still lacking a permanent leader. And the NDP remains well behind in third. At the same time, approval of the Ford government remains...
Between March 4 and 11, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,931 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This wave of research captures public opinion almost exactly one year after Mark Carney became Prime Minister and formed a government following his election as Liberal Party leader. It was also conducted after the escalation of conflict in the Middle...
When we last reported on the Carney government’s seven national priorities, the story was largely about early alignment. Canadians broadly agreed with the direction of the agenda, but were reserving judgment on delivery. The government had set clear goals. The public was waiting to see results. Now, roughly one year into Mark Carney’s leadership, that early period of orientation is...
At the beginning of 2025, when Mark Carney formally entered politics, only a minority of Canadians could recognize him. He was known in elite and policy circles, but to most voters he was still more idea than person, more résumé than brand. That matters, because political brands are not built all at once. They form gradually, as people absorb cues...
Over the past year, one of the more revealing questions in Canadian politics hasn’t simply been who people support, but what kind of leadership they believe the country needs. When voters talk about politics today, they often focus on policy problems like housing, affordability, or economic growth. But underneath those debates is something more psychological. Leadership is not evaluated in...
Between February 20 and 25, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults aged 18 and over as part of our Alberta Omnibus survey. This is our third and final release which explores the federal political landscape in Alberta, including approval of the federal government, vote intention, and impressions of key leaders.
Between February 20 and 25, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults aged 18 and over as part of our Alberta Omnibus study. This is the second release from that survey. The first examined attitudes toward Alberta independence. In this report, we turn to the broader provincial political landscape, including mood, priorities, leadership evaluations, and vote intention.
Public perceptions about Canada’s global alignment continues to shift. A new Abacus Data survey finds more Canadians still see the United States as Canada’s most important partner today, but confidence in U.S. reliability has eroded, and impressions have softened. At the same time, support for deeper strategic cooperation with the European Union is strong, and nearly half now support the...
Between February 18 and 23, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults to understand how Canadians view Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approach to dealing with President Donald Trump and how they see the risks and stakes as the 2026 CUSMA joint review approaches. The results point to a striking and potentially underappreciated dynamic. While business leaders and policy insiders have...
Between February 18 and 23, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This wave was conducted during a distinct political moment. It follows last week’s high-profile floor crossing in Ottawa, which briefly reshaped parliamentary optics and dominated political coverage. At the same time, it was fielded prior to President Donald Trump’s State...
As I write this late Saturday morning, news is still coming in about the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The targets reportedly included senior regime figures and missile infrastructure. Iran has responded. World leaders are trading statements. The situation feels fluid and dangerous. Prime Minister Mark Carney has reacted in a way that is far different than how...
For the past two years, much of his rhetoric has revolved around the idea that Canada is broken. That elites have failed. That gatekeepers have blocked growth and made life unaffordable. It has been sharp and oppositional, sometimes deliberately so. This speech was different. It felt calmer and more reflective. He reached back to Marcus Aurelius and the founding of...
Over the past year, Canadians have lived through a steady drumbeat of U.S. tariff threats, economic pressure, and political tension. For some, it fades into the background. For others, it shows up every time they tap their debit card. In our latest research, I wanted to understand not just what people think about trade policy, but how this stretch of...
From January 21 to 28, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 601 adults living in Nova Scotia. Our latest Nova Scotia release provides a detailed snapshot of the province’s political landscape as Premier Tim Houston and his Progressive Conservative government returns to the legislature and prepares to table their 2026-27 budget, which is widely expected to emphasize spending restraint.
Between February 5 and 10, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,915 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This wave comes at a consequential moment in federal politics. It follows the Conservative Party convention in Calgary and Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review, but more importantly, it represents the first clear read on the political environment after several weeks of...
Between February 5 and 10, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,915 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This wave comes at a consequential moment in federal politics. It follows the Conservative Party convention in Calgary and Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review, but more importantly, it represents the first clear read on the political environment after several weeks of...
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives enter February in a weaker position than they held at the start of the year. The PCs remain ahead on vote intention, but their lead has narrowed considerably. Approval of the Ford government has fallen sharply. The desire for change remains elevated. And the Ontario Liberals, despite lacking a permanent leader following Bonnie Crombie’s...
It has been more than a year since Abacus Data last measured American attitudes toward Canada, trade, and tariffs. To revisit these issues, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 4,000 American adults from February 2 to 4, 2026, including an oversample in several northern and border states. The survey explored how Americans feel about the direction of their country...
Abacus Data, in partnership with the Canadian Home Builders’ Association (CHBA), conducted a national survey to understand how Canadians view the housing crisis. This release examines the growing gap between the scale of the problem and the scale of the response, the balance between market and non-market housing, and the policy levers Canadians believe can make a real difference.
This week in Ottawa, Conservatives will gather to mark a milestone that still shapes Canadian politics: Stephen Harper’s election victory twenty years ago in 2006, ending more than a decade of Liberal rule. The unveiling of Mr. Harper’s official portrait is a reminder that his legacy will sit, quite literally, in the halls of Parliament. Our latest Abacus Data survey...
Between January 22 and 27, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 2,498 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This wave lands at a politically consequential moment. Conservative Party members are set to gather in Calgary for a leadership review of Pierre Poilievre, while Prime Minister Mark Carney has just concluded a high-profile appearance at the World Economic Forum...
Between January 12 and 16, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 2,008 Canadian adults as part of a special polling series examining public opinion about the Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre.
Later this week, Conservatives will gather in Calgary for their national convention, where Pierre Poilievre faces a mandatory leadership review on January 30. He is widely expected to win easily. The more interesting challenge the Conservatives face, however, is how to grow beyond the coalition they have today.
Between January 12 and 16, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 2,008 Canadian adults as part of a special polling series examining public opinion about the Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre.
Mark Carney’s Davos speech was billed as foreign policy. Fair enough. But it also feels like something you could easily imagine being the basis for an early election call.
Between January 12 and 16, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 2,008 Canadian adults as part of a polling series with the Toronto Star examining public opinion about the Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre. This second installment explores the composition and values of the Conservative coalition, with particular focus on the party’s base: the 23 percent of Canadians...
Between January 12 and 16, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 2,008 Canadian adults as part of a new research series examining public opinion about the Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre, as he faces a leadership review vote at the party’s convention at the end of the month. This first installment establishes the baseline: where the Conservatives stand...
Between January 9 and 14, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,850 Canadian adults, offering our first snapshot of the federal political landscape in the new year.
Between January 9 and 14, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,850 Canadian adults to better understand how Canadians would react to the possibility of an early federal election.
Between January 9 and 14, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed Canadian adults as part of its national omnibus survey to understand how Canadians are processing the dramatic events in Venezuela following President Donald Trump’s U.S. military operation to remove Nicolás Maduro from power and take Maduro into U.S. custody. The intervention, announced on January 3, has triggered a fast moving and...
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives begin 2026 in a dominant position. Our latest survey finds the PCs continue to hold a wide lead on vote intention and remain the default choice for many Ontarians. But beneath that topline advantage, there is a building undercurrent of restlessness. Nearly half now say it is definitely time for a change in government...
François Legault’s resignation does not just change the leadership of the Coalition Avenir Québec. It changes the election. That might sound like spin, but it reflects a basic truth about how voters actually make choices. Most people do not carry around detailed policy scorecards. They carry impressions. They rely on shortcuts. And the most powerful shortcut in politics is the...
From the rest of the free world, what we are watching right now feels unsettlingly familiar. Not because the United States is powerful. That has always been true. Not because it is acting in its own interests. Every country does that. What feels different is the growing sense that America is no longer committed to playing by the same rules...
I was 13 years old when Quebec voted on independence in 1995. I vaguely remember coming home the night the votes were being counted and seeing my parents glued to the television. I did not fully understand the stakes, but I could feel them. The tension in the room was unmistakable. Adults spoke in lowered voices. The country felt like...
Politics has always been a degrading popularity contest. To remain in power, politicians require public support and so find themselves in a constant battle to win affection or, at the very least, respect. The paradox is that the harder they try, the less likeable they often become. Over time, many leaders begin to chafe at this dependency. The need to...
If you want to know why Canadians judge a leader as an effective prime minister, you can ask them directly. Or you can look at what sits behind those judgments. That is what I set out to do. I ran the same statistical test for Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre and asked a straightforward question:
This piece has a simple goal. It is not to praise Mark Carney or to criticize him. It is not to argue that his rise was inevitable, nor to suggest it was purely accidental. The goal is to understand how someone who was virtually unknown to most Canadians in mid-2024 became Prime Minister less than a year later, and what...
Any time you hear someone say “Canadians want this” or “Canadians think that,” you should be skeptical. There is no single Canadian consumer of politics. There is no unified national preference waiting to be discovered and satisfied. What we call public opinion is not one market but many, layered on top of each other, shaped by different pressures, levels of...
I noticed a really interesting question asked recently by POLITICO in the United States about the cost of living. It cut through the noise by asking people something very simple: does the cost of living today feel worse than ever, merely bad, or not bad at all? Given how central affordability has been to politics in Canada, I decided to...
Between December 5 and 9, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults, offering a final snapshot of the federal political landscape as Parliament wrapped up for the year and the country entered the holiday season. This is our last federal political tracker of 2025. This wave captures public response to several key developments: the Carney government’s early November budget, the...
The political news cycle moved quickly last week as the federal and Alberta governments announced a wide-reaching memorandum of understanding on energy and climate policy. The agreement includes a federal green light for a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast, a pause on clean electricity rules in Alberta, and a shared commitment to net-zero emissions by...
When Mark Carney became Prime Minister earlier this year, he promised a new way of governing. A leadership built on strategic discipline, clearer expectations, and a tighter focus across a sprawling federal system. Rather than issuing dozens of mandate letters, Carney set out a unified set of seven national priorities meant to guide every minister and every department. The message...
What happens when a government survives a big test, but the country still feels stuck? That is where Canada finds itself today. The Carney government survived its first major budget vote and avoided a holiday election. On paper, that is a win. Our latest Abacus Data survey, conducted between Nov. 20 and 27 with 2,421 adults, shows the Liberals have...
Between November 20 and 27, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,421 Canadian adults to assess the post-budget political landscape. The survey was conducted just days after the Carney government passed its budget and survived a confidence vote. The results suggest that while the budget slightly lifted Liberal support and improved impressions of Prime Minister Mark Carney, it has not fundamentally altered...
Recently, Abacus Data partnered with Colleges Ontario to better understand how Ontarians feel about the future of work, the economy, and the role colleges play in preparing people for change. Ontarians are increasingly anxious about their future. Rising costs, job insecurity, and rapid technological change have created a precarity mindset – a feeling that stability can no longer be taken...
Over the past decade, I have watched the public mood shift in ways I have not seen in twenty years of tracking opinion. Canadians are not just frustrated. They are unsettled. They are anxious about money, identity, stability, and the future. And they are looking at the people in charge of teams, companies, institutions, and governments to make sense of...
A new province-wide survey conducted by Abacus Data reveals a clear preference among Ontarians for traffic calming infrastructure over the continued use of automated speed cameras. While the Ford government maintains a favourable standing with much of the electorate, the findings show that a pivot away from speed cameras and toward more visible, community-based safety interventions would be met with...
What happens when a political leader is both deeply admired and deeply disliked? As Parliament breaks for the week, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and his team may get a brief pause from the daily political grind, but the core of his public image is already well defined. He inspires intense loyalty among his supporters and equally intense opposition from his...
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a strong lead over their political rivals in Ontario. But our latest survey finds that while the Premier remains dominant, there are signs that some voters are beginning to question whether the government is making meaningful progress on key issues.
Between November 5 and 6, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,916 Canadian adults about the federal political landscape. The poll was conducted in the days following two major political developments: the release of the federal budget on November 4 and the defection of a Conservative MP to the Liberal caucus. These events had the potential to reshape the political narrative. Instead...
A new post-budget survey from Abacus Data, the first of its kind since the Carney government tabled its 2025 federal budget, finds the country divided on the plan, uncertain about the direction, and unclear on the story behind it. While many of the measures tested were well received on their own, the overall narrative remains fractured. The results point to...
Leadership hypotheticals are always speculative, but they’re not pointless. Political leadership is about more than brand management or media presence, it’s the centre of the coalition, the public face of a movement, and often the determining factor in voting behaviour. That’s why we conducted a survey of 2,922 Canadian adults between October 24 and 29, 2025, for the Toronto Star...
As Mark Carney’s government prepares to release its first budget today, Canadians remain far more likely to believe the economy will get worse before it gets better. Yet despite this macro pessimism, many hold steady expectations for their own finances, revealing a cautious but resilient public mood. This survey was done in partnership with The Logic.
From October 24 to 29, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,922 Canadian adults to explore public attitudes toward immigration and its perceived impacts. The results show that opinions on immigration have stabilized after last year’s sharp rise in skepticism. While most Canadians continue to believe current immigration levels are too high and are contributing to pressure on...
On the eve of Prime Minister Carney’s first budget, my sense is that Canadians aren’t angry. They’re exhausted. They are quite panicked and feel very wary. Our latest Abacus Data polling paints a clear picture: People want the government to keep the ship steady, not slam the wheel. They’re not demanding big, bold change. They’re asking for something far rarer...