A Davos Speech That Might Double as an Early Election Argument
Mark Carney’s Davos speech was billed as foreign policy. Fair enough. But it also feels like something you could easily imagine being the basis for an early election call.
David Coletto
While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from David Coletto.
Who is in the Conservative Party “base” and how does it differ from other Canadians
Between January 12 and 16, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 2,008 Canadian adults as part of a polling series with the Toronto Star examining public opinion about the Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre. This second installment explores the composition and values of the Conservative coalition, with particular focus on the party’s base: the 23 percent of Canadians...
Where the Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre Stand in Public Opinion
Between January 12 and 16, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 2,008 Canadian adults as part of a new research series examining public opinion about the Conservative Party of Canada and its leader, Pierre Poilievre, as he faces a leadership review vote at the party’s convention at the end of the month. This first installment establishes the baseline: where the Conservatives stand...
New Year, Same Deadlock: Liberals and Conservatives Tied as Trump Re-Emerges and Voters Stay Cautious
Between January 9 and 14, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,850 Canadian adults, offering our first snapshot of the federal political landscape in the new year.
Canadians Open to an Early Election if Framed Around Stability or a Parliamentary Reset
Between January 9 and 14, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,850 Canadian adults to better understand how Canadians would react to the possibility of an early federal election.
Canadians split on Maduro’s removal but reactions hinge on views of Trump
Between January 9 and 14, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed Canadian adults as part of its national omnibus survey to understand how Canadians are processing the dramatic events in Venezuela following President Donald Trump’s U.S. military operation to remove Nicolás Maduro from power and take Maduro into U.S. custody. The intervention, announced on January 3, has triggered a fast moving and...
Ontario PCs Start 2026 in Front, But Appetite for Change Grows as Affordability and Health Care Define the Risk
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives begin 2026 in a dominant position. Our latest survey finds the PCs continue to hold a wide lead on vote intention and remain the default choice for many Ontarians. But beneath that topline advantage, there is a building undercurrent of restlessness. Nearly half now say it is definitely time for a change in government...
How could Legault’s exit could change the race in Quebec?
François Legault’s resignation does not just change the leadership of the Coalition Avenir Québec. It changes the election. That might sound like spin, but it reflects a basic truth about how voters actually make choices. Most people do not carry around detailed policy scorecards. They carry impressions. They rely on shortcuts. And the most powerful shortcut in politics is the...
Dear America, This Is What It Looks Like From the Other Sideline
From the rest of the free world, what we are watching right now feels unsettlingly familiar. Not because the United States is powerful. That has always been true. Not because it is acting in its own interests. Every country does that. What feels different is the growing sense that America is no longer committed to playing by the same rules...
Precarity Is the Mood. Independence Is the Risk Most Voters Will Not Take
I was 13 years old when Quebec voted on independence in 1995. I vaguely remember coming home the night the votes were being counted and seeing my parents glued to the television. I did not fully understand the stakes, but I could feel them. The tension in the room was unmistakable. Adults spoke in lowered voices. The country felt like...
Why Mark Carney Cannot Afford to Ignore Public Approval
Politics has always been a degrading popularity contest. To remain in power, politicians require public support and so find themselves in a constant battle to win affection or, at the very least, respect. The paradox is that the harder they try, the less likeable they often become. Over time, many leaders begin to chafe at this dependency. The need to...
The Recipe for Political Effectiveness
If you want to know why Canadians judge a leader as an effective prime minister, you can ask them directly. Or you can look at what sits behind those judgments. That is what I set out to do. I ran the same statistical test for Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre and asked a straightforward question:
From “Carney, Who?” to the Centre of Gravity: 18 Months Through Abacus Data Polling
This piece has a simple goal. It is not to praise Mark Carney or to criticize him. It is not to argue that his rise was inevitable, nor to suggest it was purely accidental. The goal is to understand how someone who was virtually unknown to most Canadians in mid-2024 became Prime Minister less than a year later, and what...
Politics Is a Market, Not a Mood
Any time you hear someone say “Canadians want this” or “Canadians think that,” you should be skeptical. There is no single Canadian consumer of politics. There is no unified national preference waiting to be discovered and satisfied. What we call public opinion is not one market but many, layered on top of each other, shaped by different pressures, levels of...
For 67% of Canadians, the cost of living feels as bad as it ever has
I noticed a really interesting question asked recently by POLITICO in the United States about the cost of living. It cut through the noise by asking people something very simple: does the cost of living today feel worse than ever, merely bad, or not bad at all? Given how central affordability has been to politics in Canada, I decided to...
As Parliament Rises, Liberals and Conservatives Remains Neck and Neck
Between December 5 and 9, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults, offering a final snapshot of the federal political landscape as Parliament wrapped up for the year and the country entered the holiday season. This is our last federal political tracker of 2025. This wave captures public response to several key developments: the Carney government’s early November budget, the...
A First Look at the Political Opinion Impact of the Canada–Alberta Energy MOU
The political news cycle moved quickly last week as the federal and Alberta governments announced a wide-reaching memorandum of understanding on energy and climate policy. The agreement includes a federal green light for a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast, a pause on clean electricity rules in Alberta, and a shared commitment to net-zero emissions by...
Carney Government Report Card: Canadians Still Prioritize Cost of Living and Housing as Support for Carney Government’s Agenda Holds Steady
When Mark Carney became Prime Minister earlier this year, he promised a new way of governing. A leadership built on strategic discipline, clearer expectations, and a tighter focus across a sprawling federal system. Rather than issuing dozens of mandate letters, Carney set out a unified set of seven national priorities meant to guide every minister and every department. The message...
If an election were held now, would Canadians vote for Poilievre or Carney? It depends what they’re worried about
What happens when a government survives a big test, but the country still feels stuck? That is where Canada finds itself today. The Carney government survived its first major budget vote and avoided a holiday election. On paper, that is a win. Our latest Abacus Data survey, conducted between Nov. 20 and 27 with 2,421 adults, shows the Liberals have...
Federal Liberals Gain a Bit of Ground Post-Budget, But Stalemate Holds
Between November 20 and 27, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,421 Canadian adults to assess the post-budget political landscape. The survey was conducted just days after the Carney government passed its budget and survived a confidence vote. The results suggest that while the budget slightly lifted Liberal support and improved impressions of Prime Minister Mark Carney, it has not fundamentally altered...
Building a Future-Ready Ontario: How Colleges Can Help Protect Jobs and Strengthen Communities
Recently, Abacus Data partnered with Colleges Ontario to better understand how Ontarians feel about the future of work, the economy, and the role colleges play in preparing people for change. Ontarians are increasingly anxious about their future. Rising costs, job insecurity, and rapid technological change have created a precarity mindset – a feeling that stability can no longer be taken...
Leading in an Age of Precarity and Polarization
Over the past decade, I have watched the public mood shift in ways I have not seen in twenty years of tracking opinion. Canadians are not just frustrated. They are unsettled. They are anxious about money, identity, stability, and the future. And they are looking at the people in charge of teams, companies, institutions, and governments to make sense of...
Ontarians Open To Replacing Speed Cameras If Safety Investments Follow: New Poll
A new province-wide survey conducted by Abacus Data reveals a clear preference among Ontarians for traffic calming infrastructure over the continued use of automated speed cameras. While the Ford government maintains a favourable standing with much of the electorate, the findings show that a pivot away from speed cameras and toward more visible, community-based safety interventions would be met with...
Pierre Poilievre’s popularity is unprecedented. But is his future as Conservative leader safe?
What happens when a political leader is both deeply admired and deeply disliked? As Parliament breaks for the week, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and his team may get a brief pause from the daily political grind, but the core of his public image is already well defined. He inspires intense loyalty among his supporters and equally intense opposition from his...
Ontario PCs Still Lead by Wide Margin but Ontario NDP Rise Four in a Month
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a strong lead over their political rivals in Ontario. But our latest survey finds that while the Premier remains dominant, there are signs that some voters are beginning to question whether the government is making meaningful progress on key issues.
Budget Lands Softly as Political Deadlock Continues
Between November 5 and 6, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,916 Canadian adults about the federal political landscape. The poll was conducted in the days following two major political developments: the release of the federal budget on November 4 and the defection of a Conservative MP to the Liberal caucus. These events had the potential to reshape the political narrative. Instead...
Canadians React to Budget 2025: Split Views, Muddled Message, and a Test of Trust in Carney’s Leadership
A new post-budget survey from Abacus Data, the first of its kind since the Carney government tabled its 2025 federal budget, finds the country divided on the plan, uncertain about the direction, and unclear on the story behind it. While many of the measures tested were well received on their own, the overall narrative remains fractured. The results point to...
What Happens to the Conservative Party Without Pierre Poilievre? Canadians Weigh In on Potential Leadership Alternatives
Leadership hypotheticals are always speculative, but they’re not pointless. Political leadership is about more than brand management or media presence, it’s the centre of the coalition, the public face of a movement, and often the determining factor in voting behaviour. That’s why we conducted a survey of 2,922 Canadian adults between October 24 and 29, 2025, for the Toronto Star...
Canadians See Economic Clouds Gathering But Still Hold Out Hope for Progress
As Mark Carney’s government prepares to release its first budget today, Canadians remain far more likely to believe the economy will get worse before it gets better. Yet despite this macro pessimism, many hold steady expectations for their own finances, revealing a cautious but resilient public mood. This survey was done in partnership with The Logic.
Canadians’ Views on Immigration Remain Largely Unchanged from Last Year and Overly Negative
From October 24 to 29, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,922 Canadian adults to explore public attitudes toward immigration and its perceived impacts. The results show that opinions on immigration have stabilized after last year’s sharp rise in skepticism. While most Canadians continue to believe current immigration levels are too high and are contributing to pressure on...
Canadians want reassurance, not austerity, from the federal budget: New polling
On the eve of Prime Minister Carney’s first budget, my sense is that Canadians aren’t angry. They’re exhausted. They are quite panicked and feel very wary. Our latest Abacus Data polling paints a clear picture: People want the government to keep the ship steady, not slam the wheel. They’re not demanding big, bold change. They’re asking for something far rarer...
Tight Race Continues as Trump’s Trade Talk Cancellation Adds Tension Ahead of Budget
Between October 24 and 29, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,922 Canadian adults about the current political climate. The findings suggest a political environment that remains remarkably stable despite several flashpoints, including Donald Trump’s abrupt withdrawal from trade talks with Canada and Pierre Poilievre’s controversial remarks about the RCMP’s handling of Liberal-linked investigations. With the federal budget set to be tabled...
Canadians Want Prudence, Not Pain, Ahead of Budget 2025
With the 2025 federal budget set for November 4, new polling from Abacus Data for the Toronto Star finds Canadians approaching the budget in a pragmatic, almost weary frame of mind. Few see the deficit as an urgent crisis, and most want the government to steer a steady course, reducing the deficit gradually, without drastic cuts or new taxes that...
Cannabis is Mainstream, Public Support is Strong, and Canadians Want the Sector to Grow
Seven years after cannabis was legalized in Canada, a new survey from Abacus Data conducted for Organigram Global reveals that cannabis has firmly taken root in Canadian society. Cannabis use is widespread across age groups, and the sector is broadly seen as a valuable contributor to the national economy. Most Canadians support the idea of modernizing regulations to help the...
Canadians feel like they’re just barely holding on. This is what means for our future
If you want to understand Canada in 2025, don’t look up, look down. Before focusing on ideals like purpose, self-expression or “living your best life,” most Canadians are doing something much more basic: trying to make ends meet and keep their families steady. For the past year at Abacus Data, we’ve described a national mood that moved from scarcity (”Is...
How Canadians Are Resizing Expectations and Redefining What Homeownership Means
Abacus Data, in partnership with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), conducted a national survey examining how Canadians are navigating today’s housing crisis. This second release in the series explores the state of homeownership as both a personal goal and a social marker, the growing sense of compromise Canadians feel in pursuit of it, and the kinds of housing solutions...
Betting on Boldness: Prime Minister Carney’s Live Address and the Precarity Mindset
Mark Carney’s speech this week delivered at the University of Ottawa to a room full of students but crafted for a national audience was more than a pre-budget preview. It was a stress test of narrative: can a promise to “build, take control, and win” resonate with Canadians living through what we’ve called the precarity mindset — an era defined...
PCs Hold Commanding Lead, But 1 in 4 PC Supporters Point to a Lack of Alternative for their Support of Doug Ford.
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives remain the dominant political force in Ontario, commanding a solid lead over their rivals despite signs that a meaningful segment of their support is more circumstantial than enthusiastic. Our latest survey of 1,000 eligible voters, conducted during a relatively quiet week in Ontario politics, finds the PCs holding at 51%, the Liberals ticking up...
Eby Government Holds the Edge a Year After the Provincial Election
A new Abacus Data survey of 1,000 eligible voters in British Columbia offers a timely snapshot of provincial public opinion, suggesting that Premier David Eby and the BC NDP are relatively strong position as the parliamentary session resumes today, just over a year after the last provincial election. More residents approve than disapprove of the government’s performance and the BC...
Political Deadlock Persists as Carney Navigates Trump and Trade Pressure
Between October 9 and 15, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 4,501 Canadian adults on the current state of federal politics. The findings show a landscape largely unchanged at the topline — a deadlocked race between the Liberals and Conservatives, steady impressions of Prime Minister Mark Carney, and consistent anxieties about cost of living and economic stability. But this wave also captured...
Canada’s Natural Advantage: A Path to Economic Prosperity and Climate Leadership
Every year, conversations about Canada’s economic future tend to circle around the same themes: innovation, technology, and global competitiveness. But in times defined by uncertainty – from economic instability and rising costs of living to political turbulence and technological disruption – many Canadians are turning to something more familiar as a source of strength: nature. Our latest research reveals a...
Canada is ready for an ‘Age of Reassurance.’ Here’s one way to get it
If you ask Canadians what keeps them up at night, the answer is no mystery. The cost of living, housing and access to health care dominate our surveys. In recent Abacus Data polling, 68 per cent say they’re worried about affording basic needs in the next six months, and seven in ten are delaying major life decisions because of financial...
Is an NDP Led by Rob Ashton the Worst Nightmare for Both Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney?
The federal NDP has rarely looked weaker, and that might be its greatest opportunity. With support hovering in the high single digits, a caucus reduced to seven MPs, and little sense of purpose without party status, the party sits at an historically low ebb. But moments of weakness can also be moments of reinvention. When the political and economic ground...
Liberals and Conservatives Locked in Tight Race as Cost of Living Concerns Surge
Between September 26 and October 1, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,504 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. With Parliament back in session and economic anxieties simmering, this snapshot reveals a political landscape that is fiercely competitive and one where both major parties are digging in for a battle over economic credibility and leadership trust. At the topline, little...
Liberals and Conservatives Locked in Tight Race as Cost of Living Concerns Surge
Between September 26 and October 1, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,504 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. With Parliament back in session and economic anxieties simmering, this snapshot reveals a political landscape that is fiercely competitive and one where both major parties are digging in for a battle over economic credibility and leadership trust. At the topline, little...
The Politics of Safety: Why Bail Reform Is Striking a Chord with Canadians
Crime and public safety have quickly become key elements in Canada’s political conversation as Parliament resumes. While the country is not facing a crime wave on the scale of past decades, many Canadians feel less secure today than even a year ago. Concerns about drug use, property crime, and violent offences sit alongside frustrations with homelessness, addiction, and the cost...
The Risk in Raising Alarm: Could Poilievre’s Deficit Attacks Backfire?
At first glance, a massive federal deficit looks like a gift to Pierre Poilievre. It reinforces his central claim that Ottawa spends too much, delivers too little, and leaves Canadians worse off. Allows him to say again that Mark Carney’s government is no different than Justin Trudeau’s. But politics is rarely that simple. The other day, as I was preparing...
Canadian Public Opinion on Nuclear Energy
On September 19, I was invited by Ontario’s Minister of Energy to moderate a panel discussion with some of the country’s leading energy executives. As part of that panel, I delivered a short briefing on some new polling I did to prepare for the Energy Summit. This research was independently designed and was paid for by my company Abacus Data...
Mark Carney became PM because he reassured Canadians. Pierre Poilievre still can’t help unsettling us
Politics is often about timing and temperament. The 2025 federal election was a reminder that when public moods shift, the politicians best able to match that mood reap the rewards. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives lost not because their message lacked resonance, but because the emotional undercurrent of the country changed in a way that left them out of step...
Is the Canadian public primed on what to expect from Budget 2025?
In mid-September, we surveyed over 2,200 Canadians to understand how people are thinking about the federal government’s upcoming fiscal plan. What do they expect to see? Who do they think will benefit? And how do they assess the broader state of federal finances? We asked these questions not because public opinion sets the budget but because managing expectations is as...
Crime and Safety Rise as Top Issue as Parliament Resumes. Liberals and Conservatives tied.
From September 12 to 17, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,230 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. The poll was conducted just before the return of Parliament, providing a clear snapshot of voter sentiment at the end of a quiet but uneasy summer. While headline vote numbers remain stable, the issue environment is shifting, with public safety concerns rising...
It’s Never Been Harder for Governments to Talk to Citizens
In a survey I recently completed, I asked Canadians whether they knew that the Carney government had committed to cutting 15% of federal spending over the next three years. Roughly half admitted they didn’t. Think about that: one of the most consequential fiscal decisions in a generation that will likely be presented in the federal budget in October, will be...
What Canadians Expected from a Carney Government A Month Before the 2025 Election
As Mark Carney and the Liberals prepare for the fall legislative session, it’s worth remembering what Canadians expected of them when they cast their votes earlier this year. In March 2025, just at the start of the election campaign, we asked Canadians whether they believed a Carney-led government would or wouldn’t do a series of things. The answers provide a...
The NDP’s Next Test: Who Will Defend People in the Age of AI?
Good market research begins by listening for unmet needs. When people tell us what keeps them up at night whether housing, the cost of living, or a creeping sense that their jobs aren’t secure, the leaders who respond first, and credibly, are the ones who win trust. Today, the federal NDP finds itself in a deep hole: searching for relevance...
Canadians Divided on Temporary Foreign Worker Program as Generational, Regional, and Political Fault Lines Emerge
A new Abacus Data survey finds the country deeply divided on whether to eliminate Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), with support strongest among younger Canadians, residents of the Prairies, and Conservative voters. Following a recent proposal by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to phase out the program, nearly half of Canadians say they support its elimination. While 44% support the...
Carney’s Liberals Regain Lead as Economy Woes Grow
From August 28 to September 2, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. The poll was conducted over the Labour Day long weekend, following Pierre Poilievre’s byelection win in Calgary and just ahead of the federal cabinet’s late-summer retreat. The data capture a moment of political pause but economic unease, as fresh GDP figures...
Canadians See Cost of Living, Housing, and Healthcare as Bigger Threat Than Trump’s Policies
As the Liberal cabinet meets this week and Parliament prepares to resume, new polling shows a growing divide between what Canadians want their leaders to prioritize and what they believe Ottawa is actually focused on. Between August 28 and September 2, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national poll with 1,500 Canadians (aged 18+) to explore whether Canadians feel the federal...
AI’s Emerging Role in Canada’s Political Landscape
Artificial intelligence is moving rapidly from labs and boardrooms into public life. Governments are announcing national strategies, businesses are investing billions, and global leaders are beginning to stake out their visions for how AI should be governed. Yet in Canada, public opinion remains divided, ambivalent, and cautious. This divergence between elite enthusiasm and public uncertainty is shaping what could become...
Carney Government Report Card: An updated look at public perceptions
When Mark Carney became Prime Minister earlier this year, he introduced a new way of governing – one that sought to bring strategic discipline to a sprawling federal government. Instead of issuing dozens of separate mandate letters, Carney delivered a single, unified set of seven national priorities to guide every department and minister in his government. The signal was clear...
Ontario Poll: Ford PCs climb to 53%, widen lead over Liberals to 26 points
As Ontario heads into the fall, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives remain firmly in control of the province’s political landscape. The latest Abacus Data survey shows the PCs strengthening their position even further, as the Premier’s personal brand continues to outperform all rivals, while the opposition parties struggle to gain traction.