While National Newswatch does not keep an archive of external articles for longer than 6 months, we do keep all articles written by contributors who post directly to our site. Here you will find all of the contributed and linked external articles from David Coletto.
In the heat of a federal election campaign, with Donald Trump once again occupying the White House and making noise and consistent threats about tariffs and even annexation of Canadian territory, patriotic fervour in Canada is on the rise. Parties are campaigning with slogans of “Canada Strong” and “Canada First”. You’d think that in such a moment of national self-reflection...
As the first week of Canada’s 2025 general election comes to an end, our latest Abacus Data survey—our third poll of the campaign—finds the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck nationally, with each party securing 39% of the committed vote among all eligible voters.
As we come to the end of the first week of this high‐stakes, highly consequential Canadian general election campaign, many Conservative supporters—and a fair number of commentators—have been urging Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party to dramatically pivot. Their argument is straightforward: with Donald Trump ramping up threats against Canada, it seems logical for the Conservatives to seize the moment...
In political campaigns, voters’ choices often hinge on how well they feel a party understands their needs, addresses their most pressing concerns, and reflects their values. On our latest Abacus Data election survey, I gave respondents an opportunity to explain, in their own words, why they are planning to vote a certain way. In this piece, I focus specifically on...
Political campaigns are about more than promises; they are about perceptions. Voters carry in their minds a picture of what a leader will do once in office. That perception is then measured against another all-important question: should they do it? The answers to both questions—will they and should they—colour not only election outcomes but the tone and substance of national...
Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls. Liberals take a numerical lead for the first time since...
Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls.
It’s Week 1 of the federal election campaign, and Canadians are already asking the usual question: “Who’s up, and who’s down?” Beyond the shifting poll numbers and daily headlines, however, there are often less obvious survey results worth focusing on. This week, let’s focus on three that explain why Mark Carney and the Liberals have continued to extend their lead...
We’re at a turning point in Canadian public opinion: once defined by a scarcity mindset—where rising housing costs, healthcare strains, and job insecurity forced many to scramble for essentials—our collective outlook is now shifting toward something else: precarity. While concerns around what is available today still matter, the fear that core systems (healthcare, housing, social services) may fail is raising...
With the election campaign now underway, one overarching question looms: is this a campaign about change and scarcity, or about security in a time of deep precarity? Our latest polling points to a country wrestling with competing impulses—on one hand, a strong desire for a shift in direction; on the other, a fear of disruption in a period of uncertainty...
As we kick off the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign, it’s instructive to look back at where we stood at the start of the 2021 race. Although that campaign feels like it only just wrapped up, so much has changed in four years—both in the broader national mood and in the political landscape itself.
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw...
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw...
After months of speculation, a federal election appears imminent. Prime Minister Mark Carney, only recently installed as Liberal leader, is likely to seek the Governor General’s approval to dissolve Parliament any day now. This moment arrives after a series of political upheavals few could have predicted even a few months ago. But if you look closely, four main factors have...
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday. We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in...
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday. We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in...
Canada is on the cusp of a federal election featuring two relatively fresh faces: Prime Minister Mark Carney, newly at the helm of the Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre leading the Conservatives. While both men arrive with distinct backgrounds and approaches, their contest appears to be shaping up as a close one. Recent survey findings underscore just how narrow the...
Starting in 2025, the new US administration confronted the Canadian public with all sorts of threats. We detected in recent polls that the looming tariff issues are top-of-mind for many Canadians. Over the last couple of weeks, different media outlets (e.g., The Economist, Toronto Star, National Post or CBC) floated the idea of a possible Canadian membership to the European...
Over the past week, I’ve been taking a closer look at what is holding back the NDP in the eyes of potential voters. Based on survey data I collected with Abacus Data, I asked Canadians who would consider voting NDP but currently aren’t planning to do so what their main hesitation was. The results were quite revealing, particularly when we...
Over the past month on this site, I’ve examined how Justin Trudeau’s resignation, the looming election of a new Liberal leader, and Donald Trump’s return to the world stage have reshaped the Canadian political landscape. The objective here is to bring together all these strands—ranging from Pierre Poilievre’s electoral appeal to Mark Carney’s policy gambles—and synthesize them into one coherent...
For the past few years, Canadians have navigated a scarcity mindset, shaped by housing shortages, rising costs, strained healthcare, and job insecurity. This competition for essential resources fueled frustration, shifting views on immigration, climate change, and housing, driving many voters away from the Trudeau-led Liberals in search of relief. Now, we see a new mindset emerging – one defined by...
Imagine, for a moment, that Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre, Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May, and Mark Carney all had a ballot in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Who would they have voted for—Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? This was one of the more unconventional questions we asked 1,000 Canadian adults in a national Abacus Data survey conducted from February 27 to...
In my latest Abacus Data survey, 41% of committed voters say they would vote Conservative. That’s down 4-points from two weeks ago but still a share of the vote that would deliver a majority government. So what factors explain someone’s support for the Conservatives today? That’s the question this piece set out to answer, particularly in light of growing economic...
From February 20 to 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults.We find that the horse race continues to tighten as perceptions and impressions shift. The opinion landscape is evolving and looks quite different than the one we have seen over the previous 18 months.Here is what we see:
On February 24 and 25, 2025, we conducted our final poll of the 2025 Ontario provincial election with a representative online survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our fourth survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star. Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs are headed towards a big majority government, increasing...
Over the past few weeks, the Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre have amplified their social media presence with a barrage of posts and targeted ads. Whether it’s clips of Pierre Poilievre in a TV studio denouncing “Liberal insiders,” or tweets accusing Mark Carney of being “just like Justin,” the messaging is direct and unambiguous: the Conservatives want Canadians to see...
There’s an undeniable spirit among Canadians right now: most of us (84%) feel deeply connected to a greater Canadian identity. When we think about what defines that identity, we talk about kindness, respect for diversity, and a sense of unity. We’re proud of our universal healthcare, our peaceful reputation, and the freedoms we enjoy. At the same time, nearly six...
Everything is about Donald Trump these days. In our issue tracking, he has become the second most cited issue. And the threat he poses to Canadians and the anxiety his decisions are creating puts immense pressure on political leaders to find the right tone, approach, and behaviour in response. Our latest survey of 3,000 Canadian adults (February 5–11, 2025) reveals...
From February 13 to 15, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our third urvey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star. Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites but what was once a very large lead over the Liberals and NDP has...
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party will hold a big rally in Ottawa today, drawing supporters from across Ontario and beyond for a major rally on Flag Day. Behind the applause, however, lies a more complicated national mood about Poilievre and his chances of broadening the party’s appeal. Recent survey data suggests Canadians remain sharply divided about the Conservative leader—a...
If you’ve been watching Canadian politics over the last few weeks, you might think the defining generational split is all about Millennials and Gen Z at the forefront of change. But dig into the data—and the current political climate—and it quickly becomes clear that it’s the Baby Boomers (60 years old and up) who are driving the latest shifts in...
From February 5 to 11, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,000 adults. For this survey, we did something a bit different when it comes to our assessment of vote intention. We used an experimental randomized split sample approach and asked a random third of our sample one of three ballot questions. All of the other questions in...
From February 5 to 11, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,000 adults. For this survey, we did something a bit different when it comes to our assessment of vote intention. We used an experimental randomized split sample approach and asked a random third of our sample one of three ballot questions. All of the other questions in...
From February 4 to 6, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our second survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star. Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites to be re-elected but has been some notable shifts in other measures. The Progressive...
In a previous column for The Hub, I explored the “core” Liberal Party base, estimating it to be surprisingly small (only 7 percent of the electorate), when we strip away more casual or wavering supporters. Now, inspired by the demographic segmentation tactics once used by Harper’s Conservatives—who gave their voter personas names like “Dougie”—the hardworking, blue-collar white guy who was...
I remember the exact moment I first heard that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was going to resign. It was early in the morning—and X (formerly Twitter) was a flutter with news that the PM was going to announce he’s stepping down. At first, I thought it might be another satirical bit or one some type of misinformation campaigns. But within...
In my last national Abacus Data survey, I asked some questions I think shine a bright light on the interplay between voters’ economic concerns and their apprehensions about renewed tensions with the Trump administration.
It’s been over a week since President Donald Trump’s inauguration and we are waiting to see whether he imposes the tariffs he said could come into effect on February 1. Trade tensions between the United States and Canada are once again front and centre. Given this, I’ve been wondering what American public opinion is on all of this. So I...
According to the recent Abacus Data poll of 1,500 Americans, a slight majority (52%) say the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), negotiated under President Donald Trump, has been good for the United States, while only 10% feel it has been bad.This sentiment is even stronger among Trump’s own voters: 65% believe USMCA has benefited the country compared to just 7% who disagree.
With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down and a new Liberal leader set to be announced on March 9, 2025, our latest poll takes a close look at how Canadians view the three main candidates vying for his job: Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Karina Gould.
With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down and a new Liberal leader set to be announced on March 9, 2025, our latest poll takes a close look at how Canadians view the three main candidates vying for his job: Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Karina Gould.
As the Ontario provincial election is about to get started, we conducted a survey of 1,021 eligible voters in the province from January 22 to 26, 2025. The results indicate that the Ontario PC Party is in a solid position to be re-elected for the third time as Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating have improved since December...
Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2025 and interviewed 2,205 Canadian adults.
I was on CTV’s Question Period last weekend talking about the Liberal leadership race and what I thought the Liberals would need to do to change their fortunes. That conversation sparked this piece.
The inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States earlier this week has introduced a renewed sense of uncertainty in Canada–U.S. relations, and it now falls to Canadian political leaders to chart a course through shifting policy terrain. Chief among the immediate concerns is Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports on February 1, compounded...
When Justin Trudeau led the Liberal Party to victory in October 2015, few could have imagined the political rollercoaster that lay ahead. In retrospect, the chart of his net favourable ratings reads like a meticulously annotated diary of major controversies, fleeting triumphs, and moments of unforeseen crisis. By the time he announced his resignation in January 2025, Canadians’ sentiments had...
If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 20% would vote Liberal, and 19% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 8% nationally, while the Greens are at 4% and the People’s Party at 3%, with no measurable support going to other parties. Compared to our last update (January...
Over the past week, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults to understand public reactions to recent comments by former U.S. President Donald Trump speculating about Canada potentially becoming “the 51st state” or otherwise being annexed by the United States. The survey ran from January 9 to January 14, 2025, capturing Canadians’ awareness of Trump’s statements, their...
Following the announcement that Justin Trudeau will step down as Prime Minister and Liberal leader later this year, we conducted a nationally representative survey of 2,500 Canadian adults in both official languages from January 6 (starting at 5pm ET) to 7 (finishing around 11:30pm ET), 2025. The poll was conducted prior to Dominic Leblanc announcing he wasn’t going to run...
Why We Can’t Easily Estimate Liberal Leadership Candidates’ Broader Appeal (Yet)Yesterday, Justin Trudeau resigned and initiated a process to select a new Liberal Party leader and prime minister. That decision was inevitable, especially following Christian Freeland’s resignation (link)
This analysis challenges the traditional notion of a simple left-right political spectrum in Canada, revealing a more nuanced, multi-dimensional landscape. By surveying 1,500 Canadians in December, our research mapped voters’ economic and cultural values, identifying five distinct ideological segments that defy conventional ideological boundaries. Rather than fitting neatly into “progressive” or “conservative” boxes, or on a left/right spectrum, Canadians hold...
Yesterday, the Liberal Party released new advertising targeting Pierre Poilievre. How much they are spending on those ads is unknown. In my opinion, one of the most under‐reported political stories in Canada right now is just how much more visible Pierre Poilievre has become, especially compared to previous Conservative leaders—and how much Conservative spending has fuelled that recognition. If you...
As we close the book on 2024, it’s been a year marked by uncertainty, shifting priorities, and evolving political loyalties across Canada. Over the past twelve months, our firm has consistently found Canadians grappling with economic anxieties, recalibrating their political preferences, and rethinking what good governance looks like in an era increasingly defined by unpredictability and permacrisis. While opinion polls...
Following the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday, we launched a new survey at 5pm ET and completed the survey this morning at 8:30am ET to gauge instant public reaction. The survey interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,186 Canadian adults in both official languages. Yesterday, we also completed our usual bi-weekly Canadian politics tracker...
Following the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday, we launched a new survey at 5pm ET and completed the survey this morning at 8:30am ET to gauge instant public reaction.The survey interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,186 Canadian adults in both official languages.
Recently, Abacus Data partnered with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada) to conduct a comprehensive national survey to examine the current state of housing in Canada. This study, which engaged 6,000 Canadian adults (aged 18 and older) and was conducted between September 26 and...
In the wake of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, David tweeted something that has stayed with both of us: “If voters sense that you don’t like or respect them, it’s very unlikely they will vote for you. 👆 this is essentially politics today.” That sentiment feels even more relevant now, as the dynamics of respect—or...
From November 28 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys .Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and often include questions on new topics. You can read the article on this poll here:
From November 29 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,720 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.In this edition, we ask our usual trackers along with an update of our top issue tracker.
From November 29 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,720 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.In this edition, we ask our usual trackers along with an update of our top issue tracker.