Undermined – Bolstering supply chain resilience through a Canada–Australia resource alliance
Canada and Australia cannot afford to be passive actors in the increasingly turbulent world of resource geopolitics.
TCI QuickTake: Canada’s Goods Exposure to China May Be Significantly Larger Than its Export Data Suggest
Chinese import-side mirror data, which capture how China records imports from Canada, point to a larger Canadian-origin goods footprint — and a more complex bilateral trade relationship than headline export figures imply.
The Hard Choices of Canada’s China Reset
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Canada this week is significant. It is the first bilateral visit to Canada by a Chinese foreign minister since June 2016, and the most visible sign yet that the thaw in Canada-China relations that began with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January visit to Beijing is moving into a more consequential implementation phase. If...
CUSMA review comes into focus - What Trump and the Democrats agree about the future of North American trade
In just over a month, North American governments are expected to decide the future of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). More likely, they will decide how to decide that future. It’s still not clear to anyone, probably U.S. trade negotiators included, how this first six-year review of CUSMA will play out.
Reckless recognition – Canada’s Palestinian statehood mistake
Over a century ago, Max Weber observed in Politics as a Vocation that “one can say that three pre-eminent qualities are decisive for the politician: passion, a feeling of responsibility, and a sense of proportion.” Once detached from responsibility and objective judgment, passion becomes a mere sentiment staged as action, a gesture absorbed in itself and blind to the consequences...
Unprincipled – The Supreme Court’s expansion of fundamental justice under section 7 of the Charter
Section 7 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms began as something modest: a procedural protection meant to ensure that when the state interferes with “life, liberty, and security of the person,” it does so in accordance with the “principles of fundamental justice.” It was not, at least on paper, designed to place courts at the centre of sweeping...
Danielle Smith's Question Does Not Trigger The Clarity Act
The question that Alberta’s Premier, Danielle Smith, will ask Albertans on October 19 is the following:
Beyond Capability: The Strategic Calculus Behind Canada’s Submarine Procurement
By the end of next month, it is widely expected that the Government of Canada will make one of the most consequential military procurement decisions in modern Canadian history under the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP). The contract for the acquisition and in-service support of 12 new submarines to replace the aging Victoria-class fleet is estimated to cost approximately $8...
The Effect of National Borders as an Obstacle to Trade Flows: Consequences for Our Economic and Political Choices
The resurgence of protectionism internationally and trade tensions between Canada and the United States have brought the issue of borders in international trade back to the forefront. While at one time many envisioned a future in which national borders would cease to be a significant economic factor, the current situation very much suggests otherwise.
Canadian coal – From dirty secret to critical mineral: Heather Exner-Pirot
Coal is often treated as a relic of the past – dirty, declining, and politically toxic. Yet globally, it remains indispensable, the backbone of electricity systems in Asia and the primary input for global steelmaking.
Unseating responsible government: Judicial interference in Canada’s parliamentary democracy
When the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms came into force in 1982, many warned that it would undermine the foundations of Canada’s system of parliamentary democracy and usher in a new age of judicial supremacy. For a time, those concerns appeared overstated. Canadian courts exercised a degree of restraint, and the basic contours of Westminster parliamentary governance remained intact...
Invisible internal trade barriers: How Canada’s fragmented, opaque procurement systems limit competition and drive up spending
Canada’s declining productivity and weak competitiveness are increasingly tied to structural barriers that limit competition in domestic markets. One of the most consequential – and overlooked – of these barriers lies in public procurement. Accounting for 13.4 per cent of GDP, or roughly $350 billion annually – government purchasing should exert strong downward pressure on costs and expand opportunities for...
Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy is Now More Robust than Ever. But Will Carney Deliver?
The first year of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership has had a transformational impact on both Canada’s foreign policy and its standing in the world. The shift has been especially evident in the Indo-Pacific, where Ottawa is more active, more strategic, and more ambitious than it has ever been.
Reclaiming control, restoring caution – Fixing Canada’s broken immigration system
Canada’s long-standing openness helped build one of the world’s most respected immigration systems. However, the intellectual establishment’s push for ever-expanding “inclusivity” has driven that openness beyond what many Canadians consider reasonable.
Do Candidates in Canadian Elections Share the Same Views as Their Constituents on the Division of Powers within the Federation?
A comparison of two separate surveys conducted during the 2021 and 2025 election years shows a misalignment between the positions of election candidates and those of their constituents on the division of powers in Canada. While the views of candidates and voters were relatively close on this issue in 2021, the gap widened in 2025. The percentage of voters who...
Preparing the Canadian Labour Market for AI
Canada needs to make workforce upskilling a central pillar to the Pan-Canadian Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy. The global economy is entering an AI accelerating phase. Countries that have relatively large knowledge economy sectors, like Canada, face higher exposure to AI-driven change. Budget 2025 focused on AI infrastructure investments. Budget 2026 must expand the focus to AI workforce upskilling. AI is...
Negotiating with the United States Rarely Goes According to Plan. Contemporary Politicians Shouldn’t Lose Sight of 1911
Free trade negotiations with the United States have always triggered acrimonious and deeply damaging debates in Canada and often exposed political miscalculations at the highest levels. During the 1911 federal election campaign, Prime Minister Sir Wilfrid Laurier, running on a free trade platform, was denounced in Quebec as a traitor to the French and in Ontario as a traitor to...
Canada’s moment to lead the Free North: Kaush Arha, Christopher Coates, and Peter Harrell
Canada occupies a pivotal position as like-minded nations converge around shared Arctic interests. The Arctic Ocean’s growing accessibility is linking northern waters with the Baltic and the Sea of Japan. A resolute NATO “blue wall” now stretches from Finland to Alaska, with close partner Japan at the far end. Together, these circumpolar democracies form the “Free North,” extending the principles...
Canada–China Trade in 2025: Structural Shifts and Emerging Dynamics
This report provides a detailed assessment of Canada's bilateral merchandise trade with China for 2025 — a year defined by structural shifts in export composition from agriculture toward energy and minerals, sharply bifurcated import outcomes as tariff-targeted goods contracted while industrial inputs proved resilient, and persistent geographic concentration and uneven regional distribution. Situating bilateral flows within Canada's broader trade performance...
Negotiating CUSMA on a Dog Day Afternoon
ICYMI, things aren’t going so good for The Donald. In the “you broke it, you bought it” department, he’s trying to offload a property (the Iran War), bought on spec and not living up to promise, onto a new set of investors (specifically naming China, France, Japan, and South Korea). Turns out they aren’t all that interested in the property...
Canada-China Relations: Principled Pragmatism or Quiet Accommodation?
The controversy around Liberal MP Michael Ma’s comments on forced labour in China is an early test of how Prime Minister Mark Carney’s China policy is being put into practice — and whether it can remain pragmatic without drifting into equivocation, accommodation or self-censorship. Carney’s recalibration — toward a more interest-based approach aimed at stabilizing ties with Beijing while widening...
More Efficient Housing, More Affordable Housing: Putting Energy Efficiency at the Heart of Solutions
Canada is facing a housing affordability crisis that is placing a growing burden on households, particularly lower-income households, for whom housing and energy are already the largest areas of spending. Although the residential sector has reduced its GHG emissions since 2005, decarbonization has not progressed at the pace required to meet Canada’s 2030 and 2050 climate targets. Despite improvements in...
Megaprojects, Industrial Policy and the Real Test of ‘Building Canada Strong’: Community Transformation or a New Staples Trap?
Canada’s renewed embrace of industrial policy and megaprojects signals a decisive shift toward an activist ‘nation-of‑builders’ strategy. However, a real test of its success is whether it can support lasting, community‑led prosperity in regions that depend on natural resource extraction or energy generation.
More hammers, fewer homes: Why a construction labour surge isn’t ending Canada’s housing crisis
Canada’s housing shortage is no longer just an affordability problem. It is increasingly a constraint on economic growth, labour mobility, and the ability of cities to function effectively. Despite record levels of construction employment and investment, housing supply continues to fall far short of what Canadians need. The core problem lies in a sustained decline in residential construction productivity. Employment...
Two-step immigration selection and post-admission earnings
Economic immigrants selected through the two-step process — first as temporary foreign workers before being permanent residents — generally earn more than those selected directly from abroad. But outcomes vary widely: two-step immigrants with high pre-admission Canadian earnings enjoy substantial and persistent earnings advantages, while those with lower pre-admission earnings often fare worse than one-step immigrants. The findings suggest that...
Sault Ste. Marie: Ontario Steel City Looks to Forge New Path
A one-time northern Ontario fur-trading post, Sault Ste. Marie’s fortunes changed when U.S. industrialist Francis Clergue built a hydroelectric power plant on the banks of the St. Mary’s River more than 100 years ago. The dam brought cheap power to the area and turned it into an industrial hub. Clergue also opened a steel mill, a pulp and paper mill...
Beyond tobacco – The new frontier of illicit nicotine products in Canada
Canada is confronting a rapidly expanding illicit nicotine market that has evolved well beyond traditional contraband tobacco. Criminal networks that once focused on cigarettes now traffic in high-nicotine disposable vapes, unauthorized nicotine pouches, and a sprawling ecosystem of online black market platforms. Fragmented regulation, uneven enforcement, and the rise of e-commerce have created structural vulnerabilities that illicit actors are exploiting...
TCI QuickTake: Canada as East Asia's Future Energy Shock Absorber in a Conflict-Prone World
War in energy-producing regions often reveals the hidden architecture of globalization. The ongoing US-Iran conflict is doing precisely that. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has begun transforming energy trade into “risk trade,” where freight insurance, shipping routes, and geopolitical exposure can become as decisive as underlying supply. For China and other Asia-Pacific importers, this shift has two strategic implications...
What Powers Does Quebec Have over Its Internal Constitutional Order? The Constitution of Quebec in a Federal and Comparative Context
On October 9, 2025, the Quebec government, through Minister of Justice Simon Jolin-Barrette, tabled Bill 1, entitled the Québec Constitution Act, 2025, in the National Assembly. This unilateral action was taken against the backdrop of a deadlock in the multilateral process of negotiating amendments to the Canadian Constitution and reflects a recent trend toward constitutional unilateralism that is developing not...
Rising Crime Eroding Trust
Canada’s criminal justice system is failing its most basic test: keeping the public safe. A new report from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute reveals rising crime, falling clearance rates, and a bail system widely seen as broken. The result is a struggling justice system increasingly derailed by delays and struggling to deliver safety or accountability – eroding the trust of the Canadians...
Supporting communities through layoffs and business closures: A comprehensive framework
Canada’s economic landscape is profoundly changing. A shifting trade environment, global efforts to reduce emissions and other structural trends are reshaping industries and job requirements. With these shifts, opportunities arise, but so do uneven risks and impacts. Certain communities are disproportionately susceptible to the workforce disruption these changes will bring. In this Policy Brief, we focus on mass layoffs and...
Carney’s India Visit: From Reset to Results
A year ago, it was not obvious that Canada–India relations could be pulled back from the brink. Diplomatic expulsions, public recriminations, and allegations of foreign interference had frozen one of Canada’s most consequential Indo-Pacific partnerships. Yet since Prime Minister Mark Carney and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the margins of the G7 summit in Kananaskis last June, a different...