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Liberals take lead for the first time in years

Liberals take lead for the first time in years

Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our usual Canadian politics tracking questions. We will have another deeper dive into the election out this weekend. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter so you never miss our polls. Liberals take a numerical lead for the first time since...

Trump says larger tariffs could be imposed on Canada, EU if they cause U.S. ‘economic harm’

    Trump says larger tariffs could be imposed on Canada, EU if they cause U.S. ‘economic harm’

    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that larger tariffs could be placed on the European Union and Canada if...

    Trump's auto tariffs derail Carney's federal election campaign plans

    Trump's auto tariffs derail Carney's federal election campaign plans

    OTTAWA -- Liberal Leader Mark Carney is back in Ottawa today to deal with the fallout of new auto tariffs...

    Carney set up a blind trust, screens to avoid conflicts of interest. Is that enough?

    Carney set up a blind trust, screens to avoid conflicts of interest. Is that enough?

    Those protections have their limits, experts say. When Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre accused Mark Carney this week of being beholden...

    Former MP wants to explore Alberta’s future with U.S.

    Former MP wants to explore Alberta’s future with U.S.

    Medicine Hat’s former Member of Parliament is part of a group hoping to open direct talks with U.S President Donald...

    Polls

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    Liberals take lead for the first time in years.

    Liberals take lead for the first time in years.

    Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our...

    How an emerging precarity mindset is impact public opinion and the Canadian election

    How an emerging precarity mindset is impact public opinion and the Canadian election

    We’re at a turning point in Canadian public opinion: once defined by a scarcity mindset—where rising housing costs, healthcare strains...



    ElectionWatch 2025

    Polling Trendlines

    NNW EW2025 Dataviz 2025 EN1 POLLS

    Latest Results

    Liberals take lead for the first time in years.

    Liberals take lead for the first time in years.

    Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our...

    How an emerging precarity mindset is impact public opinion and the Canadian election

    How an emerging precarity mindset is impact public opinion and the Canadian election

    We’re at a turning point in Canadian public opinion: once defined by a scarcity mindset—where rising housing costs, healthcare strains...

    Liberals hold six-point lead over Conservatives: Leger poll

    Liberals hold six-point lead over Conservatives: Leger poll

    The federal Liberals are pushing further ahead of the Conservatives in voter support, and almost one in two Canadians surveyed...

    Seat Projections

    NNW EW2025 Dataviz 2025 EN1 SEATS

    Election News

    Liberals take lead for the first time in years

    Liberals take lead for the first time in years

    Our latest survey, completed between March 20 and 25, 2025 interviewed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a few of our...

    Carney set up a blind trust, screens to avoid conflicts of interest. Is that enough?

    Carney set up a blind trust, screens to avoid conflicts of interest. Is that enough?

    Those protections have their limits, experts say. When Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre accused Mark Carney this week of being beholden...

    Trump's auto tariffs derail Carney's federal election campaign plans

      Trump's auto tariffs derail Carney's federal election campaign plans

      Liberal Leader Mark Carney is back in Ottawa today to deal with the fallout of new auto tariffs announced by...

      Trump going ahead with 25% tariffs on autos

      Trump going ahead with 25% tariffs on autos

      U.S. President Donald Trump is dealing another tariff blow to Canada, signing an executive order on Wednesday that will hit...

      Poilievre attacks Carney’s French: ‘To represent Quebecers, you have to listen to them in their language’

      Poilievre attacks Carney’s French: ‘To represent Quebecers, you have to listen to them in their language’

      Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre argued Mark Carney’s French is too poor for him to be an effective prime minister...

      Carney on defence as Poilievre, Singh accuse him of using Bermuda ‘tax havens’

      Carney on defence as Poilievre, Singh accuse him of using Bermuda ‘tax havens’

      While Liberal Leader Mark Carney wanted to focus on sharing his new promise to protect Canada’s auto sector Wednesday on...

      Campaign Analysis

      Poilievre’s lack of security clearance is back in the spotlight — and this time, it could actually hurt his chances

      Poilievre’s lack of security clearance is back in the spotlight — and this time, it could actually hurt his chances

      It’s been a surprisingly quiet race so far. That may not last, but after all the drama and buildup, the...

      Pierre Poilievre does his best to miss the point on foreign interference

      Pierre Poilievre does his best to miss the point on foreign interference

      There was a familiar echo when Pierre Poilievre dismissed the news that India had sought to interfere in the 202...

      I discovered Pierre Poilievre’s secret election strategy in a North York ballroom
      How have Mark Carney and the Liberals kept extending their lead? These three numbers tell the story

      How have Mark Carney and the Liberals kept extending their lead? These three numbers tell the story

      It’s Week 1 of the federal election campaign, and Canadians are already asking the usual question: “Who’s up, and who’s...

      All knives are out to pop the Liberals’ popularity bubble

      All knives are out to pop the Liberals’ popularity bubble

      The Conservatives have a month before election day and the benefit of all opposition parties now having Carney squarely in...

      Should Canadians care about Mark Carney’s religion?

      Should Canadians care about Mark Carney’s religion?

      At least one journalist seems concerned about our new prime minister’s faith. During the opening campaign news conference, she noted...

      Policy Announcements

      NDP announces plan to cut taxes for working and middle-class families, not millionaires and billionaires

        NDP announces plan to cut taxes for working and middle-class families, not millionaires and billionaires

        Today, Jagmeet Singh announced a plan to put more money in the pockets of the people who need it most—working...

        Lower Taxes, Secure Retirement for Our Seniors

          Lower Taxes, Secure Retirement for Our Seniors

          Poilievre’s plan allows seniors to earn up to $34,000 tax free (a boost of $10,000 more than at present), allow...

          Liberals to protect Canadian auto workers and stand up against tariffs

            Liberals to protect Canadian auto workers and stand up against tariffs

            President Trump’s tariffs have directly threatened Canada’s auto manufacturing sector. Today, Mark Carney announced a new Liberal plan to protect...

            Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pledges to allow working seniors to earn up to $34,000 tax free
            Liberals release plan to rebuild, reinvest, and rearm the Canadian Armed Forces

              Liberals release plan to rebuild, reinvest, and rearm the Canadian Armed Forces

              Today, Mark Carney announced a new Liberal plan to invest in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and to protect our...

              Mark Carney promises new submarines, more icebreakers, pay-raises for Armed Forces


              Crowdfunding Rules Are Inhibiting Canada’s Kindness
              Poilievre’s lack of security clearance is back in the spotlight — and this time, it could actually hurt his chances

              Poilievre’s lack of security clearance is back in the spotlight — and this time, it could actually hurt his chances

              It’s been a surprisingly quiet race so far. That may not last, but after all the drama and buildup, the...

              Pierre Poilievre does his best to miss the point on foreign interference

              Pierre Poilievre does his best to miss the point on foreign interference

              There was a familiar echo when Pierre Poilievre dismissed the news that India had sought to interfere in the 202...

              I discovered Pierre Poilievre’s secret election strategy in a North York ballroom
              How have Mark Carney and the Liberals kept extending their lead? These three numbers tell the story

              How have Mark Carney and the Liberals kept extending their lead? These three numbers tell the story

              It’s Week 1 of the federal election campaign, and Canadians are already asking the usual question: “Who’s up, and who’s...

              All knives are out to pop the Liberals’ popularity bubble

              All knives are out to pop the Liberals’ popularity bubble

              The Conservatives have a month before election day and the benefit of all opposition parties now having Carney squarely in...

              Fight the trade war by dumping the F-35

              Fight the trade war by dumping the F-35

              Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s pledge to review Canada’s decision to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets, which he reiterated at a...

              Should Canadians care about Mark Carney’s religion?

              Should Canadians care about Mark Carney’s religion?

              At least one journalist seems concerned about our new prime minister’s faith. During the opening campaign news conference, she noted...

              Internal free trade is crucial for Canada, but tricky. Here’s how to get it done.

              Internal free trade is crucial for Canada, but tricky. Here’s how to get it done.

              As is appropriate, election campaigns are about differences and divisions. Wedging your opponents against the voting cohorts they are seeking...

              Done properly, Danielle Smith's brand of American outreach is the way forward

              Done properly, Danielle Smith's brand of American outreach is the way forward

              If you want to influence Donald Trump, who else would you talk to but influencers? It’s a fine line between...



              The book on Pierre Poilievre: He’s ‘an angry teenager in the body of a grown man’
              Pierre Poilievre vs Pierre Poilievre

              Pierre Poilievre vs Pierre Poilievre

              Pierre Poilievre has been witness to a lot of change over the 21 years he’s served as a member of...

              Flip-flopping Carney wrong choice to lead fight against Trump

              Flip-flopping Carney wrong choice to lead fight against Trump

              The idea that Liberal Leader Mark Carney and the current Liberal government are best equipped to fight a trade war...

              The NDP is dithering on the fringes of survival

              The NDP is dithering on the fringes of survival

              The NDP has a love affair with losing. Although the Conservatives are fumbling the bag, the New Democrats have no...

              U.S. provides a warning to Canada: When you elect a clown, you get a circus

              U.S. provides a warning to Canada: When you elect a clown, you get a circus

              First, former United States President Joe Biden was too sleepy. Granted, he is old, but he got rid of student...

              The authors of Canada's 'lost decade' would like another try

              The authors of Canada's 'lost decade' would like another try

              All elections are consequential. But the one just called will be more consequential than most. At a time of self-inflicted...

              When Danielle Smith tried explaining Poilievre to Americans, Canadians heard it too

              When Danielle Smith tried explaining Poilievre to Americans, Canadians heard it too

              Premier saying Conservative leader 'in sync' with Trump rattles both federal and provincial politics. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith came into...

              Cynical opportunists or dutiful Canadians? For Liberals MPs who changed their minds about running again, maybe a bit of both

              Cynical opportunists or dutiful Canadians? For Liberals MPs who changed their minds about running again, maybe a bit of both

              It’s a hard line to straddle. Are the Liberal MPs who announced they were heading for the exits when the...

              Globe's India story smears Poilievre with Carney talking points

              Globe's India story smears Poilievre with Carney talking points

              Well, there goes the Globe and Mail. One of the few news outlets in the country that hadn’t been entirely...

              Mark Carney embraces the power of positive campaigning
              Someone in Carney’s campaign made a bad call in pulling out of the TVA French debate

              Someone in Carney’s campaign made a bad call in pulling out of the TVA French debate

              After taking part in many leaders’ debates during the 2015 federal election campaign, I may be in a unique position...

              Thanks to Danielle Smith, Alberta may trump Trump as the big ballot box question

              Thanks to Danielle Smith, Alberta may trump Trump as the big ballot box question

              Mere hours after finalizing his plan to run an election campaign focused on protecting Canada from U.S. President Donald Trump’s...

              Trump Is the Ballot Question—  But Do We Really Understand What’s at Stake?
              Election is now the Liberals' to lose

              Election is now the Liberals' to lose

              The 45th Canadian federal election is the Liberals’ to lose. That’s not a line anyone would have written two months...

              Why this election might be hard to predict

              Why this election might be hard to predict

              In the lead-up to most elections, pollsters and pundits usually have a good idea of what is most likely to...

              Pierre Poilievre’s advantage is slipping rapidly away. So he’s trying something he’s never done before

              Pierre Poilievre’s advantage is slipping rapidly away. So he’s trying something he’s never done before

              Who is that smiling man? Who is that affable fellow with the big grin and the adorable family, the one...

              Danielle Smith's election help isn't helping

              Danielle Smith's election help isn't helping

              Pierre Poilievre must wake up in the morning and wonder what it will take to get Alberta Premier Danielle Smith...

              Fear and uncertainty for Ontario autoworkers after Trump announces 25% tariff

                Fear and uncertainty for Ontario autoworkers after Trump announces 25% tariff

                On a day when U.S. President Donald Trump took aim at the vehicle manufacturing industry, Ontario autoworkers said it's the...

                Trump's auto tariffs derail Carney's federal election campaign plans

                  Trump's auto tariffs derail Carney's federal election campaign plans

                  Liberal Leader Mark Carney is back in Ottawa today to deal with the fallout of new auto tariffs announced by...

                  Trump’s auto tariffs a ‘direct attack,’ Carney says as leaders react

                  Trump’s auto tariffs a ‘direct attack,’ Carney says as leaders react

                  Prime Minister Mark Carney called new 25 per cent tariffs set to be imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on...

                  Alberta Premier Smith rejects criticism U.S. meetings amount to treason

                  Alberta Premier Smith rejects criticism U.S. meetings amount to treason

                  EDMONTON -- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, dressed in red and white and quoting Winston Churchill, stood in the legislature Wednesday...



                  Trump going ahead with 25% tariffs on autos

                  Trump going ahead with 25% tariffs on autos

                  U.S. President Donald Trump is dealing another tariff blow to Canada, signing an executive order on Wednesday that will hit...

                  Poilievre attacks Carney’s French: ‘To represent Quebecers, you have to listen to them in their language’

                  Poilievre attacks Carney’s French: ‘To represent Quebecers, you have to listen to them in their language’

                  Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre argued Mark Carney’s French is too poor for him to be an effective prime minister...

                  Carney on defence as Poilievre, Singh accuse him of using Bermuda ‘tax havens’

                  Carney on defence as Poilievre, Singh accuse him of using Bermuda ‘tax havens’

                  While Liberal Leader Mark Carney wanted to focus on sharing his new promise to protect Canada’s auto sector Wednesday on...

                  Trudeau rents home in Ottawa but ultimately plans to live in Montreal

                  Trudeau rents home in Ottawa but ultimately plans to live in Montreal

                  Justin Trudeau has rented a home in the upscale Ottawa neighbourhood of Rockcliffe, where he plans to live for at...

                  Alberta premier stands by plan to speak at U.S. fundraiser, despite calls to cancel

                  Alberta premier stands by plan to speak at U.S. fundraiser, despite calls to cancel

                  Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is defending her plan to fly to Florida to appear at an event alongside a far-right...

                  Trudeau was warned about Trump's trade plans before phone call: briefing note

                  Trudeau was warned about Trump's trade plans before phone call: briefing note

                  Then-prime minister Justin Trudeau went into his first phone call with a newly re-elected Donald Trump aware that the U.S...

                  Poilievre says he'll keep retirement age at 65 in play for boomers

                  Poilievre says he'll keep retirement age at 65 in play for boomers

                  Voters ages of 65 to 74 have turned out in the biggest numbers in every federal election since 2004. Conservative...

                  Carney announces $2B fund to protect tariff-threatened auto industry

                  Carney announces $2B fund to protect tariff-threatened auto industry

                  Liberal leader says he wants to build an 'all-in-Canada' manufacturing network. Homing in once again on the fractured Canada-U.S. relationship...

                  Liberals and Conservatives campaign in Quebec, NDP proposes tax measures

                  Liberals and Conservatives campaign in Quebec, NDP proposes tax measures

                  Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Leader Mark Carney are shifting their campaigns to Quebec, while the NDP rolls out...

                  Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pledges to allow working seniors to earn up to $34,000 tax free
                  Stretch between potential April 2 U.S. tariffs and voting day will be ‘critical’ to the election outcome, say political players

                  Stretch between potential April 2 U.S. tariffs and voting day will be ‘critical’ to the election outcome, say political players

                  Seizing the momentum amid the United States’ trade war with Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney has called an early election—a...

                  SMT -- Opening Impressions -- Danielle Smith, French Debates, Crowd Size, Tom Mulcair

                  SMT -- Opening Impressions -- Danielle Smith, French Debates, Crowd Size, Tom Mulcair

                  It's only been forty eight hours and opening impressions rarely last long, but what about these? How damaging was Danielle...

                  Ousted Liberal MP Chandra Arya barred from running under party’s banner over alleged ties to India

                  Ousted Liberal MP Chandra Arya barred from running under party’s banner over alleged ties to India

                  The Liberal Party revoked MP Chandra Arya’s bid to run for the party leadership and his nomination in his own...

                  Liberals and Conservatives taking their federal election campaigns to Quebec

                    Liberals and Conservatives taking their federal election campaigns to Quebec

                    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Leader Mark Carney are shifting their campaigns to Quebec. Poilievre, who held a rally...

                    Has the rise of Carney's Liberals sunk this upstart centrist party?

                    Has the rise of Carney's Liberals sunk this upstart centrist party?

                    The Canadian Future Party bills itself as a place for voters disillusioned by Liberals and Conservatives. Dominic Cardy, leader of...

                    Carney's green funds at Brookfield used Bermuda tax haven to attract investors

                    Carney's green funds at Brookfield used Bermuda tax haven to attract investors

                    Liberal Party refuses to answer questions about leader's time in private sector. In his time at Brookfield Asset Management, Liberal...

                    The feds raised doubts about a climate scientist’s LNG research. He says they sounded like fossil fuel lobbyists

                    The feds raised doubts about a climate scientist’s LNG research. He says they sounded like fossil fuel lobbyists

                    Which is worse for the climate — coal or LNG? After a study found LNG is worse than coal, internal...

                    Donald Trump may impose escalating tariff levels, and Canada could be on the lower end: Sources

                    Donald Trump may impose escalating tariff levels, and Canada could be on the lower end: Sources

                    Canada could be on the lower end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened global tariffs next week, the Star has...

                    Carney apologizes to Montreal massacre survivor running for Liberals after getting name and school wrong

                    Carney apologizes to Montreal massacre survivor running for Liberals after getting name and school wrong

                    Liberal Leader Mark Carney named the wrong university as the site of the 1989 Montreal massacre on Tuesday — and...

                    Poilievre says he won leadership ‘fair and square’ despite allegations of India’s meddling

                    Poilievre says he won leadership ‘fair and square’ despite allegations of India’s meddling

                    National security leaks are rare in Canada. They’re even more rare during fraught election campaigns. So the allegations, delivered by...

                    CSIS alleges India organized support for Poilievre’s 2022 Conservative leadership bid

                    CSIS alleges India organized support for Poilievre’s 2022 Conservative leadership bid

                    Agents of India and their proxies allegedly meddled in the 2022 election of Pierre Poilievre as Conservative Party Leader as...

                    Politician's Pen

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                    The State of Service Report

                    The State of Service Report

                    Our government created the Citizens’ Services portfolio in 2023 to champion service delivery excellence and to improve government efficiency. This...

                    Why we shouldn’t boo the American anthem

                    Why we shouldn’t boo the American anthem

                    It’s understandable that Canadians are angry. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the United States has...


                    A bill proposing a near-total abortion ban causes an uproar at Georgia's Capitol

                    A bill proposing a near-total abortion ban causes an uproar at Georgia's Capitol

                    ATLANTA (AP) -- A crowd of pro-abortion and anti-abortion protesters flooded a windowless Georgia Capitol hallway on Wednesday with chants...

                    The White House says nothing classified was shared on Signal. Democrats say that strains credulity

                    The White House says nothing classified was shared on Signal. Democrats say that strains credulity

                    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Trump administration struggled Wednesday to stem the fallout from revelations that top national security officials discussed...

                    Democrats take hope from upset win in a GOP-leaning Pennsylvania state Senate district

                    Democrats take hope from upset win in a GOP-leaning Pennsylvania state Senate district

                    MANHEIM, Pa. (AP) -- Democrat James Andrew Malone narrowly won a special election for a Pennsylvania state Senate seat in...

                    World Series champion LA Dodgers say they'll visit Trump at the White House on April 7

                    World Series champion LA Dodgers say they'll visit Trump at the White House on April 7

                    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Los Angeles Dodgers say they have accepted President Donald Trump's invitation to the White House to...

                    International

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                    This section is sponsored by Canada's Motion Picture Industry.
                    Tesla sales fall by 49% in Europe even as the electric vehicle market grows

                    Tesla sales fall by 49% in Europe even as the electric vehicle market grows

                    FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- European sales of Tesla electric vehicles tumbled 49% in the first two months of the year...

                    Weekslong lockups of European tourists at US borders spark fears of traveling to America

                    Weekslong lockups of European tourists at US borders spark fears of traveling to America

                    SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Lennon Tyler and her German fiance often took road trips to Mexico when he vacationed in...

                    White House says Trump, Putin will seek limited ceasefire on energy, infrastructure in Ukraine war

                      White House says Trump, Putin will seek limited ceasefire on energy, infrastructure in Ukraine war

                      U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a lengthy call Tuesday to seek a limited ceasefire...

                      'Danish Viking blood is boiling.' Danes boycott US goods with fervor as others in Europe do so too

                      'Danish Viking blood is boiling.' Danes boycott US goods with fervor as others in Europe do so too

                      Ivan Hansen, a retired Danish police officer, loaded up his basket at the supermarket, carefully checking each product to avoid...

                      Trump and Putin will speak this week on Russia-Ukraine war, US envoy says

                      Trump and Putin will speak this week on Russia-Ukraine war, US envoy says

                      WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) -- President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to speak this week...

                      Think Tank

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                      Information and Communication Infrastructure Resiliency: Canada’s Invisible Security Risk

                      Information and Communication Infrastructure Resiliency: Canada’s Invisible Security Risk

                      The onslaught of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has pushed economic security to the forefront of the upcoming federal election. The...


                      Substacks

                      More View More

                      A collection of SubStack publishing within Canadian public affairs.

                      How the rich captured a Canadian prime minister: Part II

                      How the rich captured a Canadian prime minister: Part II

                      Peter Larkin launched King’s fund with $25,000 of his own cash, deposited Sept. 22, 1925 at the Old Colony Trust...

                      Day 1 - They're off!

                      Day 1 - They're off!

                      Now that the election is called, time to riff from that part of my bio that says “campaign manager” and...

                      How the rich captured a Canadian prime minister: Part I

                      How the rich captured a Canadian prime minister: Part I

                      Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin and Donald Trump’s White House have shown how political leaders who bond with billionaires can be toxic...

                      Podcasts

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                      House Party: Is Pierre Poilievre really “in sync” with Donald Trump?

                        House Party: Is Pierre Poilievre really “in sync” with Donald Trump?

                        Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is catching heat for what she said to Americans about Canada's federal election. In a resurfaced...

                        To Get Clearance Or Not Get Clearance, That Is The Question.

                          To Get Clearance Or Not Get Clearance, That Is The Question.

                          Day 3 on the campaign trail!

                          Game changer

                            Game changer

                            No time to wait for Stephen Carter. Zain and Corey assemble to talk about Pierre Poilievre's big swing.

                            Is This Anything?

                              Is This Anything?

                              David Herle, Scott Reid, Jordan Leichnitz, and Kory Teneycke provide insights on the latest in Canadian politics.