Mark Carney’s Liberals leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by 5 points in latest Nanos tracking
The federal Liberals are emerging as frontrunners in a tightly-contested election with a five-point lead over the Conservatives, who have...
Poilievre tries to capitalize on NDP weakness but Liberal surge could complicate things
Conservatives eye NDP seats, but Trump threatens to upend everything. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre spent much of the first week...
Liberals felt besieged in ‘Fortress Toronto’ under Justin Trudeau. They say Mark Carney has come to their rescue
Less than a year after her shocking byelection loss blew a Conservative hole through the federal Liberals’ fortress Toronto, Liberal...
Why Doug Ford may find there's little to be gained by campaigning for Poilievre
Both camps deny the Conservative leader reached out for campaign help. After Doug Ford's significant majority victory in Ontario, one...
Conservatives fear 'dysfunctional' campaign and 'civil war' in the party: sources
Conservative sources describe a campaign that is 'highly disorganized' and 'a mess.' As Conservative infighting over how the campaign is...
ElectionWatch 2025
Polling Trendlines
Latest Results
Federal Nightly Tracking: LPC 41.9, CPC 37.0, NDP 10.6, BQ 5.3, GP 2.6, PPC 1.9
The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos nightly federal election tracking conducted by Nanos Research surveys 1,200 Canadians aged 18 years and over...
Liberals and Conservatives tied, but advantage is still with Carney’s Liberals.
As the first week of Canada’s 2025 general election comes to an end, our latest Abacus Data survey—our third poll...
National Tracker: Liberals 42%, Conservatives 38%
A new poll by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), the industry association...
Seat Projections
Canada's Campaign Watchers
This week's analysis
To add to our interesting content about the federal election campaign, Spark and Northstar Public Affairs recruited a unique panel of 91 people who have worked in political campaigns in Canada. Each week, we’ll survey them online to see what they think is happening. This is our first synopsis, based on a survey completed March 26-27. Read More
Who Our Watchers Are:
Adam Taylor
Adrian Jean
Alex Maheu
Ali Salam
Aliya Mohammed
Andrew Casey
Andrew MacDougall
Andy Gibbons
Axel Rioux
Ben Parsons
Brad Lavigne
Brendan McGuinty
Brian Clow
Brianna Ames
Bruce Winchester
Bruce Anderson
Cameron MacKeen
Cara Salci
Carlene Variyan
Caro Seguin
Chad Bowie
Chad Walsh
Chisholm Pothier
Chris Day
Chris McCluskey
Christine Burke
Dan Mader
Dave Forestell
Dave Prisco
David McArthur
Dennis Matthews
Dennis Prouse
Derek Nighbor
Dil Puar
Dimitri Soudas
Elder Marques
Elly Alboim
Eric Johnson
Fraser Macdonald
Fred DeLorey
Gabe Garfinkel
Gabrielle Berard
Greg MacNeil
Greg McEachern
Hardave Birk
Jaime Watt
Jamie Kippen
Janet Fryday Dorey
Jason Kenney
Jeremy Broadhurst
Jim Anderson
Joanne Macrae
Jordan Deagle
Kate Harrison
Kathleen Monk
Katie Telford
Ken Boessenkool
Kevin Bosch
Lanny Cardow
Laryssa Waler
Laura Kurkimaki
Laura Pennell
Lawrence Cannon
Lisa MacLeod
Lisa Raitt
Marc-Olivier Fortin
Marcia Smith
Max Dea
Megan Leslie
Melanie Richer
Melissa Cotton
Melissa Cotton
Mike Solberg
Mollie Anderson
Monte Solberg
Morgan Swan
Nancy Jamieson
Patrick Rogers
Perry Tsergas
Phil Cartwright
Rebecca Rogers
Richard Mahoney
Rick Anderson
Rob Silver
Roxanna Benoit
Ryan Dunn
Sabrina Grover
Scott Feschuk
Scott Reid
Sean Speer
Sheamus Murphy
Stephen Carter
Tasha Kheiriddin
Tausha Michaud
Tim Powers
Tyler Banham
Vandana Fatima Kattar
Will Stewart
Yaroslav Baran
Zain Velji
Zita Astravas
Election News
Mark Carney’s Liberals leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by 5 points in latest Nanos tracking
The federal Liberals are emerging as frontrunners in a tightly-contested election with a five-point lead over the Conservatives, who have...
Liberals felt besieged in ‘Fortress Toronto’ under Justin Trudeau. They say Mark Carney has come to their rescue
Less than a year after her shocking byelection loss blew a Conservative hole through the federal Liberals’ fortress Toronto, Liberal...
Poilievre tries to capitalize on NDP weakness but Liberal surge could complicate things
Conservatives eye NDP seats, but Trump threatens to upend everything. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre spent much of the first week...
Why Doug Ford may find there's little to be gained by campaigning for Poilievre
Both camps deny the Conservative leader reached out for campaign help. After Doug Ford's significant majority victory in Ontario, one...
Conservatives demand Carney fire candidate who said Tory should be turned in for Chinese bounty
Liberal Leader Mark Carney is being urged by the Conservatives to fire a Toronto-area candidate who said people should bring...
Ministers, ex-cabinet members and leadership aspirants seek to hold bellwethers for Liberals
Six cabinet members and a former Liberal leadership candidate will contest bellwether ridings in the 2025 federal election, with more...
Campaign Analysis
Is Pierre Poilievre ‘too Trumpy?’ Does Mark Carney know his candidates’ names? 5 moments that shook up the election campaign this week
Welcome to Election 2025 and the weekly campaign edition of On The Contrary, in which Susan Delacourt and Matt Gurney...
This election campaign isn’t about the United States. It’s about Canada, and why we matter in the world
This is a hard time for the country. It is also a good time. Hard because of tariffs, talk of...
Two veteran political journalists on the making of Pierre Poilievre — and what could unmake him
The following is a conversation between two journalists who have been covering Canadian federal politics up close for decades. Stephen...
Good Talk -- Poilievre's Terrible Day
It was bad enough last week when Doug Ford told Pierre Poilievre he didn't have time to campaign for him...
Is Pierre Poilievre too 'in sync' with Donald Trump?
The Alberta premier thought it was a good thing — a top Conservative strategist begged to differ. The most controversial...
Liberals screwing the West for political gain – again
Another federal election and the Mark Carney-Justin Trudeau Liberals are employing their tried-and-true tactic, made famous by the legendary Liberal...
Policy Announcements
Poilievre Announces Canada First Reinvestment Tax Cut
Today, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced the Canada First Reinvestment Tax Cut. Any person or business selling an asset will...
Singh: We’ll cap grocery prices and make food more affordable for Canadians
Standing at the Parkdale Food Centre in Ottawa this morning, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh delivered a clear message to Canadians...
Poilievre Commits to Tax Fairness for Travelling Trades Workers
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced today that a new Conservative government will allow travelling trades workers to write off the...
Poilievre Will Lock Up the Worst Criminals for Life
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced today that as Prime Minister, he will put the safety of Canadians first—for a change—by...
Mark Carney’s Liberals announce plan to diversify Canadian trade by improving Canada’s trade enabling infrastructure
In the face of President Trump’s unjust tariffs, today, Mark Carney announced the Liberal plan to invest in trade enabling...
Singh: We Will Stop Corporate Landlords like Mark Carney’s Brookfield from Buying Up Homes and Hiking Your Rent
Jagmeet Singh stood in Toronto today with a clear message: while corporate landlords like Brookfield are buying up apartment buildings...
Opinion More View More
Is Pierre Poilievre ‘too Trumpy?’ Does Mark Carney know his candidates’ names? 5 moments that shook up the election campaign this week
Welcome to Election 2025 and the weekly campaign edition of On The Contrary, in which Susan Delacourt and Matt Gurney...
This election campaign isn’t about the United States. It’s about Canada, and why we matter in the world
This is a hard time for the country. It is also a good time. Hard because of tariffs, talk of...
Two veteran political journalists on the making of Pierre Poilievre — and what could unmake him
The following is a conversation between two journalists who have been covering Canadian federal politics up close for decades. Stephen...
Clarifying ‘Caretaker’: The Prime Minister is the Prime Minister
Mark Carney is the Prime Minister of Canada. He held this office despite not having had a seat in Parliament...
Is Pierre Poilievre too 'in sync' with Donald Trump?
The Alberta premier thought it was a good thing — a top Conservative strategist begged to differ. The most controversial...
Liberals screwing the West for political gain – again
Another federal election and the Mark Carney-Justin Trudeau Liberals are employing their tried-and-true tactic, made famous by the legendary Liberal...
Jagmeet Singh needs to stop pretending he’s going to win the election
Faced with President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against Canada this week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh shifted his campaign plans...
Avoiding the Trump trap—Why the Conservatives might want to keep ‘change’ as the election focus
As we come to the end of the first week of this high‐stakes, highly consequential Canadian general election campaign, many...
"I'm voting X because..." A deep dive on why voters say they are supporting the Liberals or Conservatives
In political campaigns, voters’ choices often hinge on how well they feel a party understands their needs, addresses their most...
How is Poilievre responding to Trump's shift in tone?
The CBC's Kate McKenna updates Power & Politics on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's response to U.S. President Donald Trump saying...
Why is the NDP doing so badly, even with progressives? Just take a look at their awful housing plan
“Massive challenges.” That is how federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh recently described his what his party is facing in this...
Let’s not sleep on Justin Trudeau’s last good idea
In one of his last acts as prime minister, Justin Trudeau put forward a genuinely great idea: Get the RCMP...
The last prime ministerial trip that Justin Trudeau never took
It’s the last trip that Justin Trudeau never took. In his last weeks in power, amid the turmoil of Donald...
Mark Carney stands to lose a lot of goodwill in Quebec by avoiding TVA jousting debate
While the country was in lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, Quebecers enthusiastically adopted the French version of the Italian slogan...
Poilievre’s 1950s fantasy draws cheers in Surrey
To hear Pierre Poilievre talk, as I did along with about 5,000 others in a steamy Surrey warehouse last night...
Carney is winning — but don’t bet against a Poilievre comeback
If you were a betting person and wanted to place a wager on the upcoming federal election, my advice would...
Danielle Smith will impact the federal election. Who will benefit remains to be seen
Premier Danielle Smith, the great disrupter of Alberta politics, is now disrupting the federal scene. At least, that’s the perspective...
‘Recovering partisans’ break down the campaign’s first week
U.S. President Donald Trump injected himself into the Canadian election campaign this week but he was already a central figure...
No longer unthinkable: the U.S. invasion of Canada
The most sobering thing I’ve read in the past couple of weeks comes from Timothy Snyder, the renowned historian of...
Donald Trump keeps on ruining Pierre Poilievre’s campaign plans
Canada is just days into its own federal election campaign and Donald Trump has already pulled the fire alarm. More...
Tom Mulcair is wrong. The NDP belongs in Parliament
I recently read an article written by a former colleague, Tom Mulcair, and was shocked and a little saddened by...
Canada’s existential election has very quickly become unserious
I see that the new Age of Seriousness lasted for about five minutes. You recall: in light of the existential...
Poilievre’s lack of security clearance is back in the spotlight — and this time, it could actually hurt his chances
It’s been a surprisingly quiet race so far. That may not last, but after all the drama and buildup, the...
Pierre Poilievre does his best to miss the point on foreign interference
There was a familiar echo when Pierre Poilievre dismissed the news that India had sought to interfere in the 202...
News More View More
Former U.S. ambassador to the UN says tariff impact will be 'enormous,' slams 'reckless' Signal group chat
Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice says President Donald Trump's tariffs will lead to major economic consequences...
Conservatives demand Carney fire candidate who said Tory should be turned in for Chinese bounty
Liberal Leader Mark Carney is being urged by the Conservatives to fire a Toronto-area candidate who said people should bring...
Ministers, ex-cabinet members and leadership aspirants seek to hold bellwethers for Liberals
Six cabinet members and a former Liberal leadership candidate will contest bellwether ridings in the 2025 federal election, with more...
Polls suggest Poilievre is losing edge on affordability
Liberal, Tory leaders equally likely to act on housing affordability, survey says. It wasn’t so long ago that Conservative Leader...
Pierre Poilievre aligns with Bloc Quebecois just as Jagmeet Singh says he ‘will never support’ Conservatives
Poilievre told reporters in Winnipeg he would not contest Quebec’s language law, Bill 96, should a challenge of it reach...
Pressure mounts on Poilievre to refocus Conservative campaign on Donald Trump
Pierre Poilievre is facing mounting discontent over campaign manager Jenni Byrne’s handling of strategy and operations, multiple sources say, citing...
Good Talk -- Poilievre's Terrible Day
It was bad enough last week when Doug Ford told Pierre Poilievre he didn't have time to campaign for him...
Why conspiracy theorists are trying so hard to falsely link Mark Carney and Jeffrey Epstein
As an economist and central banker at the highest levels, Liberal leader Mark Carney is “almost a perfect target” for...
Bob Fife “Kaboom: This is a devastating thing for Conservatives”
Will responding to U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on Canadian goods become the ballot box question for...
Carney says Trump respected Canada in phone call about launching new economic talks
Prime Minister Mark Carney said U.S. President Donald Trump respected Canada's sovereignty in their first phone call on Friday where...
Better Canada-U.S. relationship ‘possible’ if Trump likes Carney, but don’t ‘over-conclude’ based on one call, John Bolton says
Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton is cautioning not to read too much into the more positive tone struck...
Canadian MAGA hats, knives and e-cigarettes among items confiscated from Poilievre rallies
Here are some observations from having attended a few of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s rallies on the campaign trail so...
Pierre Poilievre holds investments in Brookfield — the same company he attacks Mark Carney over
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds personal investments that include the same company his party has repeatedly criticized in its attacks...
Liberals drop Calgary candidate over failure to disclose 2005 stayed domestic assault charge
The Liberal Party of Canada has dropped its candidate in the Calgary Confederation riding, due to the candidate's failure to...
Incumbent Toronto-area Liberal candidate apologizes for 'deplorable' comments
An incumbent Liberal candidate is apologizing for comments he made in January about a Conservative candidate who had a bounty...
Anti-Black racism complaint bound for Canadian Human Rights Commission after court denies public service class action
Weeks after a Federal Court decision to deny certification of a class-action lawsuit initiated by Black public servants, the country’s...
‘The wheels are off’: Senior Conservatives think the Poilievre campaign needs a reset
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s campaign desperately needs a reset, according to some veteran Tory campaigners and strategists. The question is...
Top Conservative strategist says Poilievre needs to urgently pivot or he will lose
Conservative leader is acting too 'Trump-y' and needs to make a change, says strategist. One of the country's top Conservative...
Conservatives pledge life sentences for trafficking, so that 'monsters rot in jail'
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is promising to get tough on crime if his party forms government, as the Tories try...
Thousands turn out to see Pierre Poilievre at raucous Surrey rally
A large, boisterous and damp crowd showed up for the Conservative leader's first B.C. rally on a rainy night in...
Donald Trump says he had an 'extremely productive' call with PM Carney - Canada, US to negotiate new economic, security relationship after election: Carney
Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada and the U.S. will begin comprehensive negotiations for a "new economic and security relationship"...
Liberal and Conservative safe seats likely to stay, but NDP less certain, say pollsters
There are 111 safest across Canada, based on wins by candidates with a margin of 25 per cent of the...
Mark Carney faces plagiarism accusations for 1995 Oxford doctoral thesis
Carney's doctorate in economics from Oxford shows 10 instances of apparent plagiarism, according to academics who reviewed the material
Doug Ford’s internal polling paints a grim picture for Pierre Poilievre in Ontario
Ford’s campaign manager warns that unless the Tories “get on it quick, they are going to get obliterated.” Internal polling...
Priti Obhrai-Martin - daughter of former CPC MP Deepak Obhra - the Liberal Candidate for Calgary East
I’m pleased to share that Priti Obhrai-Martin has been acclaimed as the Liberal Candidate for Calgary East in the next...
Politician's Pen
More View More
The State of Service Report
Our government created the Citizens’ Services portfolio in 2023 to champion service delivery excellence and to improve government efficiency. This...
US Poli
More View More
Critics see Trump attacks on the 'Black Smithsonian' as an effort to sanitize racism in US history
ATLANTA (AP) -- President Donald Trump's order accusing the Smithsonian Institution of not reflecting American history notes correctly that the...
Trump's FCC commissioner opens investigation into Walt Disney Co. and ABC for diversity policies
President Donald Trump's FCC commissioner said Friday he's opening an investigation into the Walt Disney Co. and its ABC television...
Wisconsin attorney general sues Elon Musk to block $1 million payment offers
MADISON, Wis. (AP) -- Wisconsin's Democratic attorney general asked a court on Friday to block billionaire Elon Musk from handing...
Convicted of bilking millions from investors, Nikola founder is pardoned by Trump
Trevor Milton, the founder of electric vehicle start-up Nikola who was sentenced to prison last year for fraud, was pardoned...
Powerful earthquakes rock Thailand and Myanmar, triggering the collapse of a Bangkok high-rise
A state of emergency has been declared in six regions and states in Myanmar after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake whose...
Shares of GM and other automakers slump following Trump tariffs, with Tesla the exception
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of major automakers slumped following President Donald Trump's announcement that he will place 25% tariffs...
Tesla sales fall by 49% in Europe even as the electric vehicle market grows
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- European sales of Tesla electric vehicles tumbled 49% in the first two months of the year...
Weekslong lockups of European tourists at US borders spark fears of traveling to America
SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Lennon Tyler and her German fiance often took road trips to Mexico when he vacationed in...
White House says Trump, Putin will seek limited ceasefire on energy, infrastructure in Ukraine war
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a lengthy call Tuesday to seek a limited ceasefire...
Think Tank
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Alberta Children’s Charter, a bold step in the right direction for youth transgender policy
Stéphane Sérafin and Geoffrey Sigalet explain why Alberta's laws on gender pronouns, early age transitioning, and access to girls' and...
Information and Communication Infrastructure Resiliency: Canada’s Invisible Security Risk
The onslaught of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has pushed economic security to the forefront of the upcoming federal election. The...
Substacks
More View MoreA collection of SubStack publishing within Canadian public affairs.
Mark Carney's $100 apology
The 10 men who have governed the Bank of Canada since its inception in 1934 have been taciturn types, studiously...
How the rich captured a Canadian prime minister: Part II
Peter Larkin launched King’s fund with $25,000 of his own cash, deposited Sept. 22, 1925 at the Old Colony Trust...
Day 1 - They're off!
Now that the election is called, time to riff from that part of my bio that says “campaign manager” and...
Podcasts
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Trump crashes onto the campaign trail
There’s been no shortage of drama one week into this sprint election campaign, which is already affected by U.S. President...
Poilievre's Terrible Day
It was bad enough last week when Doug Ford told Pierre Poilievre he didn't have time to campaign for him...
Stay Thirsty My Friends
David Herle, Scott Reid, Jordan Leichnitz, and Kory Teneycke provide insights on the latest in Canadian politics.